Application of subjective methods to the determination of the likelihood and consequences of the entry of foot-and-mouth disease into New Zealand

New Zealand has a history of continuous freedom from foot-and-mouth disease and relies on a two-tier system of surveillance to maintain this status. The first involves border control procedures and stringent importation standards, and the second is an exotic disease and pest response programme. As part of an economic evaluation comparing the exotic disease and pest response programme against a hypothetical lower grade ;measured response programme subjective judgements of the risks involved were required. Twenty-eight selected animal health professionals, predominantly veterinarians, were posted a questionnaire that used three techniques (single point estimates, three point estimates and elicitation methods) to determine the risk components in a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. The two key variables were the probability of an outbreak in New Zealand, and the number of secondary properties to which the disease spread during the epidemic. A Delphi conference of ten selected participants then focused mainly on the two key variables, with a second round postal extension to this group for the first variable. The individual data sets were then analysed and combined using a stochastic simulation technique. The final mean probability of an outbreak was about once in 50 years (0.0199). The mean numbers of farms to which disease would spread during an epidemic under the existing exotic disease and pest response programme, a measured response programme which allowed vaccination and a measured response programme which excluded vaccination were estimated to be 61, 478 and 2230 respectively. The policy implications arising from the quantification of these two key variables are that more expenditure on preparedness is justifiable and current resource planning is barely adequate.     

Pathogenic mechanisms of caprine arthritis-encephalitis virus

Goats infected with caprine arthritis-encephalitis virus (CAEV) show chronic arthritis and cachexia, which are progressive in nature. The immunopathogenic mechanisms responsible for these progressive clinical symptoms have not been fully elucidated. Various haematological and immunological parameters were evaluated in experimentally-infected goats showing typical signs of CAEV-induced disease. Infected goats showed recurrent lymphocytosis that may be due to constant presentation of antigen by infected cells of a monocyte/macrophage lineage. The serum alkaline phosphatase and -glutamyl transferase concentrations were elevated in infected goats, a characteristic of hepatic and bone disorders. All other serum chemistry parameters were similar between infected and control goats. Importantly, the serum tumour necrosis factor- (TNF-) levels were higher in infected goats. The cachexia seen in infected goats may be at least partly due to altered metabolism as a result of prolonged elevation of serum TNF- levels. Depressed natural killer cell activity was observed in infected goats and may contribute towards the establishment of a persistent infection with CAEV.Abbreviations AIDS acquired immunodeficiency syndrome - CAEV caprine arthritis-encephalitis virus - GGT -glutamyl transferase - HBSS Hanks' balanced salt solution - HIV human immunodeficiency virus - NK natural killer - PBMC peripheral blood mononuclear cells - PCR polymerase chain reaction - SAP serum alkaline phosphatase - TNF tumour necrosis factor     

Chylous effusions revisited

Varying terms and criteria have been used in the veterinary literature to characterize milky opaque pleural effusions through the years. This article addresses ideas widely repeated in the veterinary and human literature upon which time, experience, diagnostic techniques, experimental data, and improved understanding of pathogenesis have cast doubt. Topics discussed include terminology, pathogenesis of chylous and pseudochylous effusions, criteria for differentiation of chylous from pseudochylous effusions, and clinicopathologic changes associated with drainage of chylous effusions.