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Critical loads of acid deposition for forest soils, ground and surface water resources are calculated utilising a variety of mathematical models. The estimation of the predictive uncertainty inherent in these models is important since the model predictions constitute the cornerstone of the development of emissions abatement policy decisions in Europe and the United Kingdom. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach is presented here as a tool for estimating the predictive uncertainty of PROFILE, a steady-state geochemical model that is widely applied within the critical loads community. GLUE is based on Monte Carlo simulation and explicitly recognises the possible equifinality of parameter sets. With this methodology it is possible to make an assessment of the likelihood of a parameter set being an acceptable simulator of a system when model predictions are compared to observed field data. The methodology is applied to a small catchment at Plynlimon, Mid-Wales. The results highlight that there is a large amount of predictive uncertainty associated with the model at the site: three of the six chosen field characteristics lie within the predicted distribution. The study also demonstrates that a wide range of parameter sets exist that give acceptable simulations of the site characteristics as well as a broad distribution of critical load values that are consistent with the site data. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of model parameters is presented. 相似文献
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Jim Reynolds 《Biological conservation》2003,114(2):306-307
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Abstract. Demand for water from catchments dominated by upland peat as a source of drinking water supplies in the UK is likely to increase in the future as demand per capita continues to rise (Thomsen 1990) and/or summer droughts increase in frequency (Arnell 1992). Concern has been expressed in recent years over rising colour levels (related to dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and iron (Fe)) from such catchments (e.g. Kay et al. 1989) causing reduced drinking water quality. One of the major causes of increased DOC concentrations is rewetting following periods of relative drought (Mitchell & McDonald 1992). Experimental rewetting of a naturally drained wetland in Mid‐Wales over four years was found to substantially increase the concentrations of DOC, and Fe in the pore‐water, with peak values of >60 mg dm–3 (Fe) and >300 mg dm–3 (DOC) after rewetting, compared with typical values of <1 mgdm–3 (Fe) and <15 mg dm–3 (DOC) under the drained conditions. Seasonal peak concentrations of Fe and DOC have since remained at these higher levels. Rewetting produced a selective enrichment of the >5000 to <90 000 apparent molecular weight (AMW) material and this fraction was found to yield peak Fe concentrations. Two additional peaks of DOC were also found in the experimental wetland (not present in the control wetland), of >90 000 to <200 000 AMW and >200 000 AMW material. The AMW spectrum of DOC in the experimental wetland changed with season, and the >90 000 to <200 000 AMW fraction could only be seen in spring, representing a transient pool of carbon that is rapidly transformed in or transported from the wetland. These findings suggest that rewetting of peatland following drought (e.g. due to climate change) has the potential to reduce water quality. Moreover, recent interest in restoration (rewetting) of drained peatlands (Wheeler & Shaw 1995) could create an additional source of DOC rich water. 相似文献
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Resolution of a Left Ureteral Stone Using Electrohydraulic Lithotripsy in a Thoroughbred Colt 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Lynn D. Rodger Gary P. Carlson Michael E. Moran Tom B. Yarbrough John R. Pascoe Jay A. Reynolds 《Journal of veterinary internal medicine / American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine》1995,9(4):280-282
A 3-year-old Thoroughbred colt was presented for evaluation of azotemia and anorexia. Physical examination revealed a ureterolith in the left ureter, approximately 10 cm from the bladder, which was thought to obstruct urine flow by approximately 90% when viewed cystoscopically. Ultrasonographic examination of both kidneys revealed indistinct corticomedullary junctions, and the right kidney was more hyperechoic. A percutaneous biopsy of the right kidney revealed chronic interstitial nephritis with marked interstitial medullary fibrosis. Medical therapy consisting of IV fluids, sodium chloride PO, and ammonium chloride PO was initiated. Ureteroscopic electrohydraulic lithotripsy via a perineal urethrostomy was used to successfully remove the stone. Klebsiella oxytoca , which responded to oral enrofloxacin therapy, was cultured from the urine after surgery. Azotemia resolved and the horse resumed training. 相似文献
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Effects of thermal stress and level of feed intake on portal plasma flow and net fluxes of metabolites in lactating Holstein cows 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
M A McGuire D K Beede M A DeLorenzo C J Wilcox G B Huntington C K Reynolds R J Collier 《Journal of animal science》1989,67(4):1050-1060
Six Holstein cows (averaging 475 kg body weight, 2.3 parities and 96 d in lactation) fitted with catheters in the hepatic portal vein, mesenteric vein and intercostalis posterior artery were exposed to treatments of thermal comfort environments with libitum or restricted (75% of ad libitum) DM intake and a thermal stress environment with ad libitum intake in two balanced 3 x 3 latin squares to evaluate effects of thermal stress on portal plasma flow and net fluxes of metabolites. Portal plasma flow was measured by administering a primed, continuous infusion of para-aminohippurate into a mesenteric vein and determining its concentration and dilution in portal vein plasma. Thermal stress treatment increased rectal temperatures and respiration rates. Dry matter intake decreased from thermal comfort ad libitum level (15.1 kg/d) to lower levels in thermal comfort restricted (11.5 kg/d) and thermal stress (11.1 kg/d) treatments. Portal plasma flow was related directly to level of DM intake, declining about 14% with thermal comfort restricted intake and thermal stress environment treatments compared with the thermal comfort restricted intake and thermal stress environment treatments compared with the thermal comfort ad libitum intake treatment. Net flux of alpha-amino N was reduced 20 and 35% by thermal comfort restricted intake and thermal stress treatments compared with the thermal comfort ad libitum intake treatment. Net fluxes of urea N, ammonia N and glucose were not affected by experimental treatments. A portion of the negative effects of thermal stress on milk production can be explained by decreased nutrient intake and decreased nutrient uptake by the portal-drained viscera of the cow. 相似文献
70.
Litter in a room which had housed chickens and turkeys actively infected with velogenic viscerotropic Newcastle disease was no longer infectious for susceptible chickens placed there 10 to 14 days later. 相似文献