Development of Temporal Model for Forecasting of Helicoverpa armigera (Noctuidae: Lepidopetra) Using Arima and Artificial Neural Networks

Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Noctuidae: Lepidopetra) is a polyphagous pest of major crops grown in India. To prevent the damage caused by H. armigera farmers rely heavily on insecticides of diverse groups on a regular basis which is not a benign practice, environmentally and economically. To provide more efficient and accurate information on timely application of insecticides, this research was aimed to develop a forecast model to predict population dynamics of pod borer using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The data used in this study were collected from the randomly installed sex pheromone traps at International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru, Hyderabad. Several ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q) and ANN models were developed using the historical trap catch data. ARIMA model (1,0,1), (1,0,2) with minimal BIC, RMSE, MAPE, MAE, and MASE values and higher R² value (0.53) was selected as the best ARIMA fit model, and neural network (7-30-1) was found to be the best fit to predict the catches of male moths of pod borer from September 2021 to August 2023. A comparative analysis performed between the ARIMA and ANN, shows that the ANN based on feed forward neural networks is best suited for effective pest prediction. With the developed ARIMA model, it would be easier to predict H. armigera adult population dynamics round the year and timely intervention of control measures can be followed by appropriate decision-making schedule for insecticide application.     

Transition Element-Like Chemistry for Potassium Under Pressure

At high pressure the alkali metals potassium, rubidium, and cesium transform to metals that have a d1 electron configuration, becoming transition metal-like. As a result, compounds were shown to form between potassium and the transition metal nickel. These results demonstrate that the chemical behavior of the alkali metals under pressure is very different from that under ambient conditions, where alkali metals and transition metals do not react because of large differences in size and electronic structure. They also have significant implications for the hypothesis that potassium is incorporated into Earth's core.     

Effects of Nitrogen on Dry Matter Accumulation and Productivity of Three Cropping Systems and Residual Effects on Wheat in Deep Vertisols of Central India

A field experiment was conducted on deep vertisols of Bhopal, India to study the effects of three levels of nitrogen (N), namely 0, 75 and 100 % of the recommended dose of nitrogen (RDN), on the dry matter accumulation (DMA) and productivity of three cropping systems (sole soybean, sole sorghum and soybean + sorghum intercropping) during the rainy season and their residual effect on the subsequent wheat crop during the post-rainy season. During the rainy season, sole sorghum was found to have significantly higher DMA and productivity in terms of soybean equivalent yield (SEY) than sole soybean or soybean + sorghum intercropping. Increasing the N dose from 0 to 100 % RDN significantly improved the DMA and SEY. At a low fertility level (N₀), soybean + sorghum intercropping was found to be more productive, while at a high fertility level (100 % RDN), sole sorghum was more productive than the other two cropping systems. However, during the post-rainy season, sole soybean as the preceding crop gave the highest DMA and seed yield of wheat, which were similar to those found with soybean + sorghum intercropping. Sorghum followed by wheat gave the lowest DMA and seed yield of wheat. Application of 100 % RDN irrespective of cropping system during the preceding crop improved the DMA of wheat but not its seed yield. However, N applied to the wheat crop significantly increased its DMA and seed yield.     

Cytoplasmic effects on photosynthesis and ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase activity in Brassica species

Brassica genotypes representing four different species viz. B. nigra and B. campestris (both primary diploids), B. juncea and B. carinata (both allotetraploids) were examined for photosynthesis rate (Pn), ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase (RuBPC) activity, leaf soluble protein and chlorophyll content. B. nigra is the male and female parent of B. juncea and B. carinata, respectively. B. campestris is the maternal parent of B. juncea. Pn was significantly higher in B. nigra and B. carinata compared to the other two species. These two species also sustained Pn of the leaves for a longer period during ontogeny. When B. nigra was the male parent, the higher Pn of B. nigra was not inherited in B. juncea. On the other hand, the Pn and pattern of ontogenetic changes in B. campestris and B. juncea were more or less similar. In specific RuBPC activity on soluble protein basis, chlorophyll and soluble protein content B. carinata also followed B. nigra whereas, B. juncea followed B. campestris. These results indicated the possible maternal(cytoplasmic) influence on the inheritance of these traits. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Chronic cervical compressive myelopathy in horses: patterns of astrocytosis in the spinal cord

The distribution and morphology of fibrous astrocytes in the cervical spinal cord of normal horses and horses with chronic compressive myelopathy were demonstrated using immunohistochemical staining for glial fibrillary acidic protein. In the spinal cord from normal horses, astrocytes with stellate cell bodies and short processes were irregularly distributed in grey matter. In the white matter, their cell bodies were small and angular in areas adjacent to grey matter and larger and more stellate-shaped in the subpial area. Astrocyte processes were fine, and evenly distributed in a predominantly radial pattern in transverse sections of cord. Gliosis was marked in the spinal cords of horses with cervical compressive myelopathy. In the grey matter at the level of compression astrocytes were often enlarged and rounded, with short, blunt processes, but the gliosis was generally mild. In the white matter, gliosis was obvious in areas of nerve fibre swelling and degeneration at the level of compression and in areas of ascending and descending Wallerian degeneration. The fine radial pattern of astrocyte fibres was replaced by a dense, irregular arrangement. Gliosis persisted in the cords of chronically affected horses after active nerve fibre degeneration had subsided. The areas of gliosis coincided with the areas of Marchi staining for degenerating myelin and with areas of myelin loss in osmium tetroxide post-fixed tissue. Histological observations were consistent with astrocytes replacing areas of extracellular space that remained after nerve fibre degeneration. it is concluded that astrocytic gliosis is a prominent and persistent alteration of the spinal cord of horses with chronic cervical compressive myelopathy.     

Contribution of Leaf Photosynthesis towards Seed Yield in Brassica species

The effect of defoliation after flowering, when a considerable number of pods were already formed on yield components, was examined in four Brassica species. In B. campestris and B. juncea , a decrease in seed yield by defoliation was associated with a decrease in the number of pods per plant as seed number per pod and thousand-seed weight were not significantly affected by this treatment. In B. nigra , apart from decreasing the pod number per plant, defoliation also significantly decreased the thousand-seed weight, Defoliation significantly decreased both seed number per pod and thousand-seed weight apart from decreasing the number of pods per plant in B. carinata. The study indicated that in B. campestris and B. juncea , the role of leaf photosynthesis seemed to be restricted mainly to the formation of pods. On the other hand, in B. nigra and B. carinata it appeared that leaf photosynthesis also contributed towards seed development.     

Micronutrient Content of Certain Tropical Conventional and Unconventional Feed Resources of Southern India

The ash, silica and certain important micronutrients were estimated in conventional and unconventional feed and fodder resources available in Southern India. Commonly used dry roughages, such as paddy straw, ragi straw, maize kadbi/stalk, jowar kadbi/stalk, bajra stalk and wheat straw, were high in ash (9.9% +/- 0.77%) and silica (6.4% +/- 0.65%) and low in most of the other micronutrients, except iron, with paddy straw containing most silica (>9%). Cultivated non-leguminous (maize, jowar) and improved green crops (hybrid napier, guinea, green panic, NB-21, CO-1) were also high in ash (10.5% +/- 0.60% and 12.5% +/- 0.51%) but were moderate sources of P, Mg and Cu and good sources of Zn (98 +/- 13.8 ppm and 55 +/- 6.7 ppm). Leguminous green fodders (stylosanthus, lucerne, cow pea, soyabean) were excellent sources of Ca (1.9% +/- 0.16%), Mg (0.40% +/- 0.05%), Cu (30 +/- 5.2 ppm), Zn (121 +/- 14.7 ppm) and Fe (1234 +/- 166 ppm) and moderate sources of P. Mixed local grasses and weeds were high in silica (6.9% +/- 1.00%) but were good sources of Cu, Zn and Fe. Cereal grains (maize, wheat, rice, ragi) were low in ash (2.9% +/- 0.33%) and were relatively poor sources of Ca (0.22% +/- 0.03%), Mg (0.19% +/- 0.03%) and Cu (13 +/- 3.1 ppm). Pulses were low to medium sources of most minerals and good sources of Fe (1230 +/- 293 ppm). Oil seed cake/extractions (groundnut cake, cotton seed cake, soyabean meal, sunflower cake, safflower cake) and cereal by-products (rice polish, rice bran, wheat bran) were excellent sources of P (1.1% +/- 0.47% and 2.3% +/- 0.19%) and good sources of Zn (65 +/- 3.9 ppm and 66 +/- 10.7 ppm) and Fe (938 +/- 130 ppm and 662 +/- 126 ppm). Among the unconventional feeds screened, orange peel, sunflower heads, meat meal, rubber seed cake, spirulina algae and sea weeds contained plentiful Ca, Zn and Fe: tree leaves/top feeds (mulberry, erythrina, glyricidia, banana, subabul, groundnut haulms) were excellent sources of Ca (1.5% +/- 0.13%), Zn (120 +/- 22.9 ppm) and Fe (1033 +/- 133 ppm) but relatively poor sources of P. Soyabean husk, cocoa seed husk, rubber seed cake and meat meal were moderate to good sources of P (1.0% and 0.33%). The high Zn and Fe values of most feeds/fodders were probably due to soil contamination. This account of the micronutrient content of feed/fodder resources should help in strategic supplementation intended to alleviate local deficiencies.