Spatial relative risk mapping of pseudorabies-seropositive pig herds in an animal-dense region

This paper describes a new approach for spatial relative risk mapping as a tool for geographical risk assessment. The spatial epidemiological analysis is based on geographically referenced data about pseudorabies (Aujeszky's disease) virus infections at farm level in a region of high animal density in Germany at the beginning of the national eradication project. On the basis of serological findings 186 farms were classified as positive out of a total of 482 investigated farms listed in veterinary administrative registers. Geographical cluster analysis was used to identify two areas of high risk (RR = 2.4 and 3.3). Non-parametric density estimation was used to estimate the proportion of infected farms per square kilometre. Furthermore, the spatial relative risk function was approximated through the prevalence ratio defined by the ratio of the local prevalence and the overall prevalence of the farms outside the cluster regions. The corresponding approximated relative risk map indicates and quantifies a clear spatial pattern of disease frequency.     

Exploratory spatial relative risk mapping

The many faces of disease mapping include maps of disease case locations, regional counts of cases, and disease risk. Another approach is that of mapping the relative risk. Previous methods to map the relative risk were based on regression models of relative risk, given information about geographical locations and established risk factors. However, spatial epidemiological investigations are often exploratory with limited knowledge about the putative risk factors. Indeed, often the primary motivation for the analysis is to identify unknown geographically varying risk factors.

An exploratory approach to mapping the spatial relative risk is to scale the risk map using the background risk in the unexposed (or less-exposed) population. Exposure to unknown spatial risk factors is defined via specific cluster analysis. Identification of spatial disease clusters separates the population into those inside and those outside high risk areas (the exposed and unexposed populations). This exploratory approach to relative risk mapping gives the investigator an impression about the importance and geographical distribution of the unknown spatial risk factors.

Two examples illustrate the exploratory relative risk mapping approach using a spatial point data set on pseudorabies in pig-herds and a regional count data set on small fox tapeworm infections in red foxes.     

Piscine orthoreovirus (PRV) in red and melanised foci in white muscle of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Melanised focal changes (black spots) are common findings in the white skeletal muscle of seawater-farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Fillets with melanised focal changes are considered as lower quality and cause large economic losses. It has been suggested that red focal changes (red spots) precede the melanised focal changes. In the present work, we examined different populations of captive and wild salmon for the occurrence of both types of changes, which were investigated for the presence of different viruses by immunohistochemistry and RT-qPCR. The occurrence of red or melanised foci varied significantly between the populations, from none in wild fish control group, low prevalence of small foci in fish kept in in-house tanks, to high prevalence of large foci in farm-raised salmon. Large amounts of Piscine orthoreovirus (PRV) antigen were detected in all foci. No other viruses were detected. Red focal changes contained significantly higher levels of PRV RNA than apparently non-affected areas in white muscle of the same individuals. Some changes displayed a transient form between a red and melanised pathotype, indicating a progression from an acute to a chronic manifestation. We conclude that PRV is associated with the focal pathological changes in the white muscle of farmed Atlantic salmon and is a premise for the development of focal melanised changes.     

Modeling the timber supply impact of introducing weevil-resistant spruce in British Columbia with cellular automata

Assessing the impacts of cumulative, non-lethal damages to forests poses a particular challenge to forest management planning since cumulative merchantable volume losses are not known until the time of harvest. This paper introduces a model that scales stand-level processes to their large-scale implications by combining elements of growth and yield modeling, insect infestation modeling, and large-scale spatial harvest simulation. The model is described and tested using the proposed large-scale introduction of weevil-resistant spruce in British Columbia, Canada as a case study. While spruce weevil damages were found to be significant, only a relatively small percentage of losses can be avoided by planting resistant stock. The model introduced in this paper can serve as an important decision support tool for policy makers and researchers in assessing the large-scale effects of proposed policy and management interventions.     

Distribution and establishment of the alien Australian redclaw crayfish,Cherax quadricarinatus,in the Zambezi Basin

1. Crayfish are invasive polytrophic keystone species, which are phylogenetically unique on the African continent. The Australian redclaw crayfish Cherax quadricarinatus is invasive in southern African freshwater systems including the Zambezi River Basin. Surveys conducted across the Zambezi Basin (Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia and Zambia) between 2017 and 2019 showed that C. quadricarinatus is broadly distributed across the Upper and Middle Zambezi and is rapidly spreading through natural and human-mediated means across several ecoregions.
2. The probability of capture (P_capture), catch per unit effort (CPUE) and population characteristics of C. quadricarinatus from the recent Barotse floodplain invasion were compared with older invasions from Lake Kariba and Kafue River.
3. The P_capture and CPUE of C. quadricarinatus in the recently invaded region of the Barotse floodplain were similar to those of the older invasions. Mass and carapace length of C. quadricarinatus from the Barotse floodplain were significantly lower than those of C. quadricarinatus from the older invasions. Sex ratios differed significantly between the three invasive populations. The Barotse floodplain population had a disproportionate investment in females (65.3%) and intersex individuals (8.4%). No crayfish were detected in the Zambezian Headwaters or the Okavango Floodplains ecoregions, but current spread rates are 49 km yr⁻¹ downstream and 12 km yr⁻¹ upstream.
4. Investment in population management and the prevention of spread will have high conservation value across the invaded regions in order to restrict crayfish ecological impacts via direct predation and competition. In areas where crayfish are in high abundance, existing fisheries are affected through damage to nets, leading to increased net abandonment and ghost gear pollution in invaded regions.
5. The emphasis should be on developing cohesive transboundary biosecurity policies in southern Africa to limit further spread that will threaten the integrity of freshwater ecosystems. However, long-term monitoring is needed to gauge invasion risk to sensitive areas such as the Okavango Floodplains ecoregion and determine field-based ecological impacts.

     

In vitro Comparison of Secure Aberdeen and Square Knots with Plasma‐ and Fat‐Coated Polydioxanone

Objective: To determine (1) the minimum number of throws to form secure Aberdeen (AB) and square knots to start (SS) and end (SE) continuous patterns, in fat‐ and plasma‐coated polydioxanone; and (2) compare relative knot security (RKS) and knot volumes of these secure SS, SE, and AB knots. Study Design: In vitro experimental materials testing. Sample Population: Polydioxanone suture material (3 metric). Methods: Each knot was tested 20 times, and throws incrementally added until secure SS, SE, and AB knots were found. RKS and knot volumes were calculated for SS, SE, and AB knots. Results: Secure SE knots needed 5 throws in plasma or fat. Secure SS knots needed 4 throws in plasma, but 5 in fat. The minimum AB configuration that was secure in plasma or fat was 3+1, however, the 4+1 AB knot was also secure in fat. Mean (SD) RKS of secure knots were: SE 59.69% (5.91), SS 67.92% (12.50), AB 81.08% (8.99). AB knots had significantly higher mean RKS than any SS or SE knot in plasma or fat (P<.001). Mean knot volume of 3+1 AB knot was significantly smaller than any secure SS or SE knots by 22.6–69.4% (P<.0001). Mean knot volume of 4+1 AB knots was significantly smaller than all fat secure SS and SE knots by 19.9–57.5% (P=.0001). Conclusion: The knot security of the SS knot was decreased by fat coating polydioxanone suture, requiring an additional throw to keep it secure. Secure AB knots had a higher breaking strength and smaller knot volume than secure SS and SE knots. Clinical Relevance: The AB may be preferable to square knots in continuous closures. As many body fluids contain lipid, surgeons should tie knot configurations considered secure in fat. We advise tying a 4+1 AB and placing a minimum of 5 throws to tie SS and SE knots using 3 metric polydioxanone.     

Pelagic–littoral resource polymorphism in Hovsgol grayling Thymallus nigrescens from Lake Hovsgol,Mongolia

Resource polymorphism is a widespread phenomenon in post‐glacial fishes where multiple morphotypes of a species occur sympatrically and exhibit distinct resource use. Availability of open niches and high levels of within and among species competition are thought to drive differences in morphology and may provide insights into early stages of speciation. Hovsgol grayling (Thymallus nigrescens) are endemic to Lake Hovsgol, a lake colonised by fish following the Pleistocene, and are threatened with habitat loss due to climate change and illegal harvest. Previous analysis of Hovsgol grayling diet inferred through C and N stable isotopes suggested the presence of littoral and pelagic foraging groups. We hypothesised that morphology of the two foraging groups would reflect predictions of functional morphology, indicating the presence of resource polymorphism. To test this hypothesis, we evaluated evidence from C and N stable isotopes, stomach contents, fish ages, capture location and morphology. Two foraging groups of Hovsgol grayling were identified through stomach content and C and N stable isotope analysis. Individuals with greater zooplankton consumption were more frequently captured in the pelagic zone, exhibited higher gill raker counts, larger orbit (eye) sizes, longer paired fins, narrower head width, larger maxilla and smaller size at age than the group with greater reliance on benthic invertebrate prey. These differences were generally consistent with those described in other fish species exhibiting littoral–pelagic resource polymorphism. Our study provides the first example of littoral–pelagic resource polymorphism in the salmonid subfamily Thymallinae and highlights the potential influence of competition on fish evolution.     

Rapid formation of sulfuric acid particles at near-atmospheric conditions

We investigated the formation of new particles in a laboratory study, starting from H2SO4 produced in situ through the reaction of OH radicals with SO2. Newly formed particles were observed for H2SO4 concentrations above 7 x 10(6) per cubic centimeter. At 293 kelvin, a rough estimate yielded a nucleation rate of 0.3 to 0.4 particles per cubic centimeter per second for approximately 10(7) particles per cubic centimeter of H2SO4 (particle size >/= 3 nanometers). These findings are in agreement with observations from the atmosphere. The results demonstrate that under laboratory conditions similar to the atmosphere, particle formation occurs at atmospheric H2SO4 concentration levels.