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11.
We used a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics, supported by empirical field data and socioeconomic data, to examine the impacts of human disturbances on a protected forest landscape in Kyrgyzstan. Local use of 27 fruit and nut species was recorded and modeled. Results indicated that in the presence of fuelwood cutting with or without grazing, species of high socioeconomic importance such as Juglans regia, Malus spp., and Armeniaca vulgaris were largely eliminated from the landscape after 50–150 yr. In the absence of disturbance or in the presence of grazing only, decline of these species occurred at a much lower rate, owing to competitive interactions between tree species. This suggests that the current intensity of fuelwood harvesting is not sustainable. Conversely, current grazing intensities were found to have relatively little impact on forest structure and composition, and could potentially play a positive role in supporting regeneration of tree species. These results indicate that both positive and negative impacts on biodiversity can arise from human populations living within a protected area. Potentially, these could be reconciled through the development of participatory approaches to conservation management within this reserve, to ensure the maintenance of its high conservation value while meeting human needs.  相似文献   
12.
Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two policy objectives focusing on (1) the protection on current (native) species, and (2) all species, including immigrating species. The trade-offs between the protection of native species versus all species is illustrated. The study shows that the development of prediction models of future species distributions as the basis of decision rules can be crucial for ensuring the effectiveness of conservation plans. Finally, it is discussed how more adaptive strategies, that allow for the redirection of resources from protected sites to privately-owned sites, may increase the effectiveness of the conservation networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics.  相似文献   
13.
The accuracy of clinical observations was estimated using Bayesian latent-class models with two or more independent tests. Four veterinarians carried out systematic independent clinical examinations on 155 pigs in three herds. Based on the results of binary recordings of clinical observations on dullness, poor body condition (PBC), skin lesions, lameness, respiratory disease, and diarrhea, a latent disease state for each clinical disease was estimated using Gibbs sampling.

The accuracy of the clinical observations differed for the four observers and for different clinical signs. Population parameters were estimated from a Bayesian hierarchical model, and the accuracy of a random observer was calculated. We concluded that the accuracy of the veterinarians in this study substantiated the need to pursue more-precise definitions of the clinical findings and that larger sample sizes would be needed to provide reasonable variance estimates. Finally, we concluded that the uncertainty in the clinical decision-making process (starting with the clinical examination) needs to be represented fully.  相似文献   

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The selectivity of a 99 mm trawl codend was assessed using a codend cover fitted with a MultiSampler, which was acoustically triggered to take separate samples at three different phases of the haul. The first sample was collected during towing, the second during haul-up and the third at the surface. A total of 18 hauls were conducted with a commercial fishing vessel west of Scotland. It was demonstrated that escapes take place not only during the tow but also in the short period when the trawl is hauled back from the seabed and when the codend is at the surface. For haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), whiting (Merlangius merlangus) and Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus), respectively, the mean percentages escaping at the surface were 16, 12 and 38% of the total escape while 17, 8 and 28% escaped during the haul-up phase. Compared to towing, the escape rate (no./min) increased for haddock by a factor 2.7 during haul-up and by a factor 1.7 at the surface, whereas the escape rates of whiting were similar for the three phases. The escape rate of Norway lobster increased by a factor of approximately 7 for both the haul-up and surface phases, compared to the towing phase. The selectivity parameters L50 (50% retention length) and SR (selection range = L75–L25) were estimated and compared for the three different phases and for the whole haul for haddock, whiting and Norway lobster. For all three species there was no significant (P > 0.05) difference in L50 between the three phases of the haul. There was also no significant difference for whiting and Norway lobster when comparing the SR of the three phases, whereas the SR was significantly lower for haddock when comparing the surface phase with towing and haul-up. The estimate of L50 when towing was about 6 cm lower for haddock and whiting and 9 mm for Norway lobster compared to the selection curve estimated conventionally for the whole haul. Finally, the effect of sea state, duration and codend catch on the selectivity parameters were estimated for the individual phases and for the whole haul. A significant effect of at least one variable was found in all phases.  相似文献   
16.
A method for mapping potentially acid sulfate soils in Jutland, Denmark is described. First the wetlands were outlined, using already existing topographic maps. Then 7900 profiles, evenly distributed over the wetland areas, were examined to point out areas with potentially acid sulfate soils. The method used to identify potentially acid sulfate material was, for carbonate-free samples, a pH-measuring at the sampling time and after the samples were inoculated with soil water extract from an acid sulfate soil and 2, 8 or 16 weeks of incubation. For carbonate-containing samples the pyrite content was compared to the acid-neutralizing capacity. A map was constructed showing the ratio of profiles containing potentially acid sulfate soil samples to total number of profiles examined within natural geographical wetland regions.The investigation showed that 35% of the wetlands in Jutland have a high frequency of potentially acid sulfate soils.  相似文献   
17.
The role of phospholipase A2 in the induction of drip loss from pig muscle has been investigated. In samples from porcine M. longissimus dorsi, total PLA2 activity as well as mRNA and protein levels of the group VIA iPLA2 (iPLA2-VIA) increased during the initial 4 h post-mortem period. Morphological studies of porcine muscle showed that at 4 h post-mortem, gaps had formed between muscle fibers and that the sarcolemma membrane borders appeared blurred. At the same time iPLA2-VIA protein levels were increased inside muscle fibers and at the sarcolemma. iPLA2-VIA mRNA abundance in samples from different breeds of pigs with variations in drip loss revealed no clear correlation between drip loss level and iPLA2-VIA expression. Together, these data indicate that during the post-mortem period, iPLA2-VIA expression and activity is increased at the muscle fiber membranes. PLA2 activity may affect membrane permeability and consequently the progression of drip formation in porcine muscle.  相似文献   
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19.
16alpha-Bromo-epiandrosterone (epiBr), a synthetic derivative of the natural hormone dehyroepiandrosterone (DHEA), was evaluated for its effects on feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) infection in experimental cats. The rationale for this study was based on the ability of DHEA to significantly reduce the mortality to viral infections in mice. DHEA and epiBr also have demonstrable in vitro anti-viral activity for both HIV-1 and FIV. Preliminary pharmacokinetic studies in cats demonstrated that subcutaneously injected epiBr was rapidly absorbed, completely metabolized, and nontoxic. Metabolites were excreted in both urine and feces, with the latter having the most complex pattern of breakdown products. Cats were then divided into four groups; two groups were infected with FIV and two uninfected. Two groups, one infected and one uninfected were treated on 5 consecutive days of weeks 0, 4, 8, 12 and 16 with epiBr. The remaining two groups were mock treated with the drug vehicle alone. Treatment started 1 week prior to infection and extended for 4 weeks after infection. Cats were observed for 20 weeks post-FIV infection. Infected cats had identical decreases in blood neutrophil and lymphocyte counts following, regardless of whether they were treated with epiBr or vehicle alone. The CD4/CD8 T-cell ratio was decreased following FIV exposure, but was significantly more decreased for the epiBr treated animals from week 2 post-infection onward. CD4+ T cells were decreased in FIV-infected cats treated with epiBr compared to their untreated cohort, while CD8+ T cells tended to be higher in treated animals. FIV infected cats that were treated with epiBr had over one-log higher virus loads at week 2 post-infection than non-epiBr treated cohorts. In spite of this enhanced initial viremia, the subsequent levels of virus in the blood were significantly lower in epiBr treated versus untreated animals. EpiBr treated cats had significantly higher FIV-p24 antibody responses than control cats receiving vehicle alone, although primary and secondary antibody responses to a T-cell dependent non-FIV antigen, keyhole limpet hemocyanin (KLH), were unaffected. EpiBr treatment significantly decreased the expected FIV-induced suppression of IL-12 p40 mRNA levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) observed at weeks 4, 5, 8, 9 and 16 post-infection, but had no influence on FIV-induced changes in IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IFN-gamma, MIP-1alpha and RANTES.  相似文献   
20.
The effect of land use (forest and grassland) on the deposition and mobility of Pb and Cd has been studied by extraction with 1M HCl, 1M NH4Ac/HAc and 1M NH4Ac. The soils were described pedologically and the main physical and chemical parameters were determined. The Pb concentration in the A horizon is higher in the profile under forest than in the profile under grassland. We assign this difference to the filter action of the forest. The Cd concentration is highest in the grassland profile because the forest soil is more degraded and Cd is leached to a higher degree in this soil. Both metals are more mobile (easier to extract) in the forest because the forest soil is most acidic, and because a greater part is bound to organic compounds (humic and fulvic acids) which are more abundant in the forest than in the grassland. The concentrations of Pb and Cd in the A horizons are 26 ppm and 0.1 ppm under the forest and 9 ppm and 0.2 ppm under grassland, respectively.  相似文献   
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