Application of subjective methods to the determination of the likelihood and consequences of the entry of foot-and-mouth disease into New Zealand

New Zealand has a history of continuous freedom from foot-and-mouth disease and relies on a two-tier system of surveillance to maintain this status. The first involves border control procedures and stringent importation standards, and the second is an exotic disease and pest response programme. As part of an economic evaluation comparing the exotic disease and pest response programme against a hypothetical lower grade ;measured response programme subjective judgements of the risks involved were required. Twenty-eight selected animal health professionals, predominantly veterinarians, were posted a questionnaire that used three techniques (single point estimates, three point estimates and elicitation methods) to determine the risk components in a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. The two key variables were the probability of an outbreak in New Zealand, and the number of secondary properties to which the disease spread during the epidemic. A Delphi conference of ten selected participants then focused mainly on the two key variables, with a second round postal extension to this group for the first variable. The individual data sets were then analysed and combined using a stochastic simulation technique. The final mean probability of an outbreak was about once in 50 years (0.0199). The mean numbers of farms to which disease would spread during an epidemic under the existing exotic disease and pest response programme, a measured response programme which allowed vaccination and a measured response programme which excluded vaccination were estimated to be 61, 478 and 2230 respectively. The policy implications arising from the quantification of these two key variables are that more expenditure on preparedness is justifiable and current resource planning is barely adequate.     

Pathogenic mechanisms of caprine arthritis-encephalitis virus

Goats infected with caprine arthritis-encephalitis virus (CAEV) show chronic arthritis and cachexia, which are progressive in nature. The immunopathogenic mechanisms responsible for these progressive clinical symptoms have not been fully elucidated. Various haematological and immunological parameters were evaluated in experimentally-infected goats showing typical signs of CAEV-induced disease. Infected goats showed recurrent lymphocytosis that may be due to constant presentation of antigen by infected cells of a monocyte/macrophage lineage. The serum alkaline phosphatase and -glutamyl transferase concentrations were elevated in infected goats, a characteristic of hepatic and bone disorders. All other serum chemistry parameters were similar between infected and control goats. Importantly, the serum tumour necrosis factor- (TNF-) levels were higher in infected goats. The cachexia seen in infected goats may be at least partly due to altered metabolism as a result of prolonged elevation of serum TNF- levels. Depressed natural killer cell activity was observed in infected goats and may contribute towards the establishment of a persistent infection with CAEV.Abbreviations AIDS acquired immunodeficiency syndrome - CAEV caprine arthritis-encephalitis virus - GGT -glutamyl transferase - HBSS Hanks' balanced salt solution - HIV human immunodeficiency virus - NK natural killer - PBMC peripheral blood mononuclear cells - PCR polymerase chain reaction - SAP serum alkaline phosphatase - TNF tumour necrosis factor     

A formal method of determining the dietary amino acid requirements of laying‐type pullets during their growing period

1. The amino acid requirements of laying type pullets during the growing period can be estimated by measuring the growth of different components of the body and making use of nutritional constants that define the amount of each amino acid that is required for the production of the tissues being formed.

2. In this experiment, carcase analyses of each of three breeds of pullets were conducted at weekly intervals throughout the growth of the pullets, to 18 weeks of age. Measurements were made of body weight, gut‐fill and feather weight, and chemical analyses consisted of water, protein, lipid and ash measurements of both the body and the feathers. Each age group comprised 10 birds of each breed.

3. Gompertz functions accurately estimated the growth of both body protein and feather protein, to 18 weeks of age, from which the rate of growth of these two components of the body could be estimated. The mature weight of pullets was overestimated by the Gompertz growth curve, which may indicate that a pullet ceases to increase in body protein content once sexual maturity has been reached.

4. Using allometric relationships between the chemical components of the body and of feathers, all the components of growth could be estimated from the growth of body protein and feather protein. These components were then added together to determine the growth rate of the body as a whole.

5. The daily amino acid requirements for 4 functions were calculated, namely, those for the maintenance of body protein and feather protein, and for the gain in body protein and feather protein. These requirements were then summed to determine the requirement of pullets on each day of the growing period.

6. Using the ‘effective energy’ system, the amount of energy required by these pullets was calculated for each day of the growing period, from which the desired daily food intake of the pullets could be predicted. By dividing the amino acid requirement by this daily food intake it was possible to determine the concentration of amino acids that would be needed in the diet in order to meet the requirements of a pullet.

7. The results indicate that the ratio between the requirement for lysine and for methionine and cysteine changes dramatically during the growing period, negating the concept of a fixed ratio between all the amino acids during growth.

8. The above process is the first step in determining the optimal feeding programme for a population of pullets of a given genotype. The constraining effects, of the diet being offered and of the environment in which the pullets are housed, on the food intake and growth rate of each pullet have to be estimated, and such a theory can then be expanded to include all the individuals in the population. Only by the use: of simulation models can all these constraining effects be considered simultaneously.     

Sensitivity,specificity, and predictive values of reagent test strip estimations of blood urea nitrogen

Azostix-reagent-tests(R) strips (Ames, Miles, Inc., Diagnostic Division, Elkhart, IN) were used to measure blood urea nitrogen values in blood samples from 125 dogs and cats at the North Carolina State University, College of Veterinary Medicine. Results of the tests were compared with standard serum urea nitrogen results. Sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive values were high (86.4, 90.3, and 96.5%, respectively). Positive predictive value was low, 65.5% of the dogs and cats with elevated blood urea nitrogen values were correctly classified as abnormal The test performs well when the prevalence of abnormal values is near 50%.     

Chylous effusions revisited

Varying terms and criteria have been used in the veterinary literature to characterize milky opaque pleural effusions through the years. This article addresses ideas widely repeated in the veterinary and human literature upon which time, experience, diagnostic techniques, experimental data, and improved understanding of pathogenesis have cast doubt. Topics discussed include terminology, pathogenesis of chylous and pseudochylous effusions, criteria for differentiation of chylous from pseudochylous effusions, and clinicopathologic changes associated with drainage of chylous effusions.     

Effect of incubation temperature on the gross pathology of turkey embryos

1. Turkey eggs were incubated at 36.5, 37.5 and 38.5°C. The age of mortality, the incidence of malpositions and the incidence of morphological abnormalities were recorded from all unhatched eggs.

2. Eggs incubated at 36.5°C hatched later than eggs incubated at 37.5°C but did not differ in age of mortality or incidence of malpositions and abnormalities.

3. Eggs incubated at 38.5°C hatched significantly less well than eggs incubated at 37.5°C and showed significant differences in time of embryo mortality. Overheated embryos had a mortality peak between 15 and 20 d of incubation and an increased mortality after 24 d of incubation.

4. Overheated eggs were characterised by a high incidence of embryos with head in small end, with excess albumen, ruptured yolk sacs, oedematous heads, eye cataracts and swollen down‐plumules.