Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the Earth sciences

Verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible. This is because natural systems are never closed and because model results are always nonunique. Models can be confirmed by the demonstration of agreement between observation and prediction, but confirmation is inherently partial. Complete confirmation is logically precluded by the fallacy of affirming the consequent and by incomplete access to natural phenomena. Models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and their predictive value is always open to question. The primary value of models is heuristic.     

The effect of intra-ruminal selenium pellets on growth rate, lactation and reproductive efficiency in dairy cattle

In each of two dairy herds (A and B), rising yearling heifers (Trial 1) and adult cows (Trial 2) were assigned to three treatment groups. Untreated animals were compared to animals treated with either two or four intra-ruminal pellets containing 3 g of elemental selenium. The administration of pellets at the recommended dose (two pellets per animal) was effective in elevating whole blood glutathione peroxidase activity and selenium concentration to over 10 times those of control animals. In Trial 1, a 15% response in liveweight gain (p<0.001) occurred in yearling heifers in the herd with the lowest pre-treatment selenium status. In Trial 2, cows receiving two pellets produced a greater milk volume (p=0.06) and more milk solids (p=0.02) than untreated controls; an increase in volume of 5.4% and 8%, and in milk solids of 6.5% and 6.4%, were noted in herds A and B respectively. There was a trend towards decreasing somatic cell counts in milk from the treated cows when compared to controls, the four-pellet group in Herd A and the two-pellet group in Herd B being significantly different from their respective control group. No between-group differences were noted in calving-first service or calving-conception intervals, nor in the proportion of animals pregnant to first or all services. The administration of selenium at twice the recommended dose rate yielded no additional response above that noted after the administration of the recommended dose. The results of this study support the use of currently recommended Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries selenium reference ranges in cattle for the prediction of a response to supplementation.     

Rickets in alpacas (Lama pacos) in New Zealand

Rickets was diagnosed in two weaner alpacas from a flock showing ill thrift and lameness during the winter of 1992. Both animals had abnormally shaped ribs with occasional healing fractures, irregular thickening of growth plates and metaphyseal haemorrhages. The mean serum phosphorus concentrations of the alpacas fell during June and July, even though lambs grazing the same pasture had normal serum phosphorus concentrations and the phosphorus concentration of the pasture was considered adequate. Vitamin D deficiency may also have contributed to the osteodystrophy. The alpacas had a thick fleece during the winter, and diurnal Vitamin D, synthesis resulting from solar irradiation is likely to have been minimal, especially considering the reduced sunshine hours recorded during the 1992 winter. Surviving alpacas recovered after treatment with monosodium phosphate and an oral Vitamin D supplement. It is possible alpacas are more susceptible to deficiencies of phosphorus and Vitamin D than other grazing animals in New Zealand.     

Correct equations for comparing models in diallel analysis

SUMMARY: Correct equations are given to express the parameter estimates of four models for complete diallels as a function of the parameter estimates in the model of Eisen et al. (1983). In recent literature these equations have been partly incorrect. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG: Korrekte Gleichungen für den Vergleich von Modellen in der Diallelanalyse Für die Darstellung der Parametersch?tzwerte von vier Modellen für vollst?ndige Diallele als Funktion der Parametersch?tzwerte des Modells von Eisen et al. (1983), die in der Literatur teilweise fehlerhaft erfolgte, werden korrekte Formeln angegeben.     

Reduced protein kinase C activity and endogenous protein phosphorylation in ethionine-induced fatty liver in cows

Protein kinase C (PKC) activity was evaluated and the phosphorylation of its endogenous substrates was explored in fatty liver induced by administration of ethionine (an analogue of methionine) to cows in order to assess the relevance of PKC-dependent phosphorylation in the development of fatty liver. PKC activity was decreased in both the cytosolic and the total particulate fractions from fatty livers, compared to the corresponding fractions from control liver. The mode of activation by the PKC cofactors (1-oleoyl-2-acetyl-sn-glycerol, 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate, phosphatidylserine and Ca²⁺) was similar in both control and fatty livers, suggesting a quantitative but not a qualitative change in PKC in fatty liver. At least three substrate proteins (34 kDa, 26 kDa and 19 kDa) were found in the cytosolic fraction and their phosphorylation was reduced in fatty liver. These results suggest that impairment of the signal transduction pathway mediated by PKC is involved in the pathogenesis of fatty liver in cows.Abbreviations ATP adenosine triphosphate - EGTA ethylene glycol bis(-aminoethylether)-N,N,N,N-tetraacetic acid - NEFA non-esterified fatty acid - OAG 1-oleoyl-2-acetyl-sn-glycerol - PKC protein kinase C - PS phosphatidylserine - SDS-PAGE sodium dodecyl sulphate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis - TG triglyceride - TPA 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate     

Application of subjective methods to the determination of the likelihood and consequences of the entry of foot-and-mouth disease into New Zealand

New Zealand has a history of continuous freedom from foot-and-mouth disease and relies on a two-tier system of surveillance to maintain this status. The first involves border control procedures and stringent importation standards, and the second is an exotic disease and pest response programme. As part of an economic evaluation comparing the exotic disease and pest response programme against a hypothetical lower grade ;measured response programme subjective judgements of the risks involved were required. Twenty-eight selected animal health professionals, predominantly veterinarians, were posted a questionnaire that used three techniques (single point estimates, three point estimates and elicitation methods) to determine the risk components in a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. The two key variables were the probability of an outbreak in New Zealand, and the number of secondary properties to which the disease spread during the epidemic. A Delphi conference of ten selected participants then focused mainly on the two key variables, with a second round postal extension to this group for the first variable. The individual data sets were then analysed and combined using a stochastic simulation technique. The final mean probability of an outbreak was about once in 50 years (0.0199). The mean numbers of farms to which disease would spread during an epidemic under the existing exotic disease and pest response programme, a measured response programme which allowed vaccination and a measured response programme which excluded vaccination were estimated to be 61, 478 and 2230 respectively. The policy implications arising from the quantification of these two key variables are that more expenditure on preparedness is justifiable and current resource planning is barely adequate.     

Effect of incubation temperature on the gross pathology of turkey embryos

1. Turkey eggs were incubated at 36.5, 37.5 and 38.5°C. The age of mortality, the incidence of malpositions and the incidence of morphological abnormalities were recorded from all unhatched eggs.

2. Eggs incubated at 36.5°C hatched later than eggs incubated at 37.5°C but did not differ in age of mortality or incidence of malpositions and abnormalities.

3. Eggs incubated at 38.5°C hatched significantly less well than eggs incubated at 37.5°C and showed significant differences in time of embryo mortality. Overheated embryos had a mortality peak between 15 and 20 d of incubation and an increased mortality after 24 d of incubation.

4. Overheated eggs were characterised by a high incidence of embryos with head in small end, with excess albumen, ruptured yolk sacs, oedematous heads, eye cataracts and swollen down‐plumules.