Managing project risks and uncertainties

This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks(quantifiable bad things that can happen)and uncertainties(poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events).Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that(a)project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks,(b)while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control,managed execution and oversight are stil the primary means to keeping within budget,on time and fit-for-purpose,(c)improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus,effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics,and(d)projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate,the scope of identified threats is too narrow,and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution.Almost by definition,what is poorly known is likely to cause problems.Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage,but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns.Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals.This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.     

Cellular and subcellular compartmentation of sulphate in leaves in relation to low sulphur mobility

Tracer kinetics and single cell sampling both suggest that S is compartmented differently in vacuoles of epidermal and mesophyll cells. Cytoplasmic S turns over rapidly, but vacuolar turnover in both cell types is too slow to support plant growth, thus accounting in part for the apparent low mobility of S in mature leaves.     

Population assessment and potential functional roles of native mussels in the Upper Mississippi River

• 1. Despite a heightened global concern for native mussels, fundamental research on mussel ecology in large rivers is lacking. These gaps in knowledge about where mussels occur, and why, are limiting habitat restoration activities.
• 2. Large‐scale systematic surveys for native mussels in three reaches of the Upper Mississippi River documented mussel communities composed of 16–23 species and ranging from 2.9–4.5 live mussels m^?2 that were actively recruiting new cohorts into their populations (87–100% of the species were found as juveniles ?5 years old). Estimates of mean tissue biomass and production in these reaches ranged from 2.1–3.1 g C m^?2 and 0.4–0.6 g C m^?2 year^?1, respectively.
• 3. Mussels filtered a significant amount of water (range, 0.05–0.07 m³ m^?2 d^?1) over a 480 km reach of the Upper Mississippi River – amounting to a filtration rate of 53.1 million m³ day^?1. The filtration rate of mussels as a percentage of river discharge ranged from 0.5–1.4% at high flows (5% exceedance), from 1.5–4.4% at moderate flows (50% exceedance) and from 4.4–12.2% during low flows (95% exceedance).
• 4. Collectively, these data suggest that native mussels play an integral role in this ecosystem by sequestering suspended materials that can be used by other benthic organisms. Published in 2011 by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

     

The importance of bare marine sedimentary habitats for maintaining high polychaete diversity and the implications for the design of marine protected areas

• 1. Bare intertidal sedimentary habitats have received relatively little attention compared with their neighbouring vegetated habitats. An ecological comparison of benthic faunal assemblages inhabiting tropical intertidal seagrass beds and bare sediments has been made to assess the faunal similarity between the two habitats in south‐east Asia.
• 2. The poorly developed taxonomy of most invertebrate taxa in the region precluded the full identification of many faunal groups. Only the polychaetes — which accounted for 76% of all the macrofaunal organisms collected — were identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level, yielding 177 nominal species belonging to 35 families. Ecological analyses suggested that although each habitat had a distinct polychaete assemblage, there were few differences between habitats based on a range of calculated assemblage diversity metrics.
• 3. Further analyses were applied to the data to test the performance of three strategies for optimizing the selection of sites for inclusion in potential marine protected areas. Strategies were based either on the total number of species, the number of rare or endemic species, or on the level of species richness (used as a surrogate for community structure).
• 4. All three strategies consistently captured above average numbers of species at most levels of conservation intensity. The merits of each strategy are considered in turn.

Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Harbour seal movements and haul‐out patterns: implications for monitoring and management

• 1. Compliance with conservation legislation requires knowledge on the behaviour, abundance and distribution of protected species. Seal life history is characterized by a combination of marine foraging and a requirement to haul out on a solid substrate for reproduction and moulting. Thus understanding the use of haul out sites, where seals are counted, as well as their at‐sea movements is crucial for designing effective monitoring and management plans.
• 2. This study used satellite transmitters deployed on 24 harbour seals in western Scotland to examine movements and haul‐out patterns.
• 3. The proportion of time harbour seals spent hauled out (daily means of between 11 and 27%) varied spatially, temporally and according to sex. The mean haul‐out duration was 5 h, with a maximum of over 24 h.
• 4. Patterns of movement were observed at two geographical scales; while some seals travelled over 100 km, 50% of trips were within 25 km of a haul‐out site. These patterns are important for the identification of a marine component to designated protected areas for the species.
• 5. On average seals returned to the haul‐out sites they last used during 40% of trips, indicating a degree of site fidelity, though there was wide variation between different haul‐out sites (range 0% to >75%).
• 6. Low fidelity haul‐out sites could form a network of land‐based protected areas, while high fidelity sites might form appropriate management units.

Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental correlates of richness,community composition,and functional traits of terrestrial birds and mammals in a fragmented tropical landscape

Landscape Ecology - Tropical forest loss and fragmentation and the associated loss in species diversity are increasing in both magnitude and scope. Much attention has been paid to how attributes of...     

断奶仔猪的饲喂方案

不管仔猪断奶早与晚,断奶仔猪的饲喂方案和营养策略应彻底地重新考虑,以确保保育期营养方案的成功实施。设计合理的营养方案和饲料预算不能独自确保保育方案的成功,必须配合其它措施。我们正开始明白,不但给幼龄猪喂什么饲料是重要的,而且教它们怎样采食和如何进行管理同样重要。一个成功的保育期饲喂方案包括多种要素,但最重要的是:A)尽可能从体重较重和日龄较大时开始保育;B)尽可能快地从复杂日粮转换为简单日粮;C)给仔猪提供正确的管理措施,使其能迅速找到食物和饮水,并经常调整喂料器,以获得最佳的饲料效率。     

Fit for purpose: taking integrated water resource management back to basics

Integrated Water Resource Development and Management (IWRM) was the paradigm recommended for water resource management at the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Subsequently, however, “development” disappeared from the IWRM lexicon and the Dublin Principles, a preconference lobbying product, were widely promoted instead. A review of case studies suggests that the normative approach of Dublin has constrained infrastructure investments in developing countries, often ignoring the context within which water resources are managed. As a result, its positive outcomes have been limited. Meanwhile, in countries following the Rio approach, water management has made significant contributions to broad development objectives. It is suggested that a return to the UNCED agreement is needed to address effectively the challenges to water management posed by economic transformation, population growth and climate change.     

Field Method for Biosolids N Mineralization Using Porous Ceramic Cups

A new technique was developed for field determination of N mineralization from biosolids, which provides a simple, inexpensive test that yields accurate results. A residuals technique was used; mineralization was defined as the difference between the original and final mass of organic nitrogen. Biosolids were collected from a number of British Columbia wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), placed in porous ceramic tubes and incubated under controlled conditions. Variables studied included wet versus dry biosolids, application rate, tube size, inoculation solution, and the effect of a soil addition mixed with biosolids. There was little difference in N mineralization between wet and dried biosolids, however variability was reduced using dried biosolids. No difference was observed using different amounts of biosolids. When dried biosolids were inoculated with supernatant obtained from a soil and biosolids mixture, decomposition was higher than with supernatant from the individual mediums alone. However, mineralization was fairly close with all inoculates. The addition of soil had little effect on biosolids decomposition other than resulting in a higher variability.