Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Effect of feeding intensity and milking system on nutritionally relevant milk components in dairy farming systems in the North East of England

There is increasing concern that the intensification of dairy production reduces the concentrations of nutritionally desirable compounds in milk. This study therefore compared important quality parameters (protein and fatty acid profiles; α-tocopherol and carotenoid concentrations) in milk from four dairy systems with contrasting production intensities (in terms of feeding regimens and milking systems). The concentrations of several nutritionally desirable compounds (β-lactoglobulin, omega-3 fatty acids, omega-3/omega-6 ratio, conjugated linoleic acid c9t11, and/or carotenoids) decreased with increasing feeding intensity (organic outdoor ≥ conventional outdoor ≥ conventional indoors). Milking system intensification (use of robotic milking parlors) had a more limited effect on milk composition, but increased mastitis incidence. Multivariate analyses indicated that differences in milk quality were mainly linked to contrasting feeding regimens and that milking system and breed choice also contributed to differences in milk composition between production systems.     

Accumulation of sorghum phytoalexins induced by Colletotrichum graminicola at the infection site

Microspectrophotometry was performed on intact, pigmented vesicle-like inclusions within living sorghum cells that were accumulating phytoalexins as a response to attempted fungal infection. The results indicate that the deoxyanthocyanidin phytoalexins are present in inclusions. Moreover, the phytoalexin concentration within a single inclusion, based on luteolinidin, was calculated to be 0·15 m. The amounts of luteolinidin and apigeninidin in cells involved in the phytoalexin response at individual infection sites were also determined. The data showed that luteolinidin accumulated to levels of 0·48–1·20 ng/cell whereas apigeninidin accumulated to levels of 0·24–0·91 ng/cell. The results of both analyses confirmed that at the infection site the deoxyanthocyanidins accumulate to levels in substantial excess of those required for inhibition of the fungus Colletotrichum graminicola.     

The response of rabbits to the subclass specific epitopes of bovine IgG1 and IgG2

Thirty-two random breed New Zealand White rabbits were immunized with purified bovine IgG1, IgG2, unfractionated bovine IgG and a pepsin digest of bovine IgG using 75 μg and 2 mg doses of each immunogen. The amount of total precipitating antibodies, IgG1 subclass-specific antibodies (SSAb) and IgG2 SSAbs were measured by reverse single radial diffusion. Rabbits responded equally as well to IgG2 as to IgG1 subclass specific epitopes. The amount of SSAb varied from 13–69% of the total precipitating antibodies. Immunodiffusion analyses indicated that some subclass-specific determinants were located elsewhere on the heavy chain than on the papain-generated Fc. Considerable individual variation in responsiveness was noted although there was a tendency for higher doses of purified subclass proteins to produce a higher proportion of SSAbs. Administration of a second antigen booster uniformly resulted in a significant reduction in the amount of SSAb. Finally the enzyme susceptibility of IgG2 to pepsin provides a simple method for obtaining an immunogen for stimulating exclusively IgG2 SSAbs.     

Quantitative Changes Associated with Calving in the Levels of Bovine Immunoglobulins in Selected Body Fluids I. Changes in the Levels of IgA, IgG1 and Total Protein

Levels of bovine IgA, IgG1 and total protein (TP) were determined in serum, saliva, tears and individual quarter lacteal secretions of six Holstein-Friesian cows sampled from six weeks before to four weeks after parturition. Hierarchal analyses of variance indicated significant variations among weeks, cows and quarters of the udder. A precipitous but non proportional drop in the levels of IgA and IgA1 in lacteal secretions occurred at calving. There was a concomitant increase in IgG1, and decrease in IgA, in serum. Correlation studies supported the concept of selective transport of IgG1 from serum to lacteal secretions in regulated amounts independent of serum IgG1 levels. Changes in the IgG1/TP ratio of serum and lacteal secretions supported the idea of a decrease in the selective transport mechanism. Correlation studies and estimations of secretory IgA (SIgA) in serum suggest that serum IgA is derived from IgA synthesized in secretory tissues. Highly significant correlations between IgA and IgG1 levels in all secretions postpartum suggest that local IgA synthesis and either IgG1 transport or local IgG1 synthesis are initiated by the same stimuli. Although some of the variation in the level reported for IgA and IgG1 in secretions resulted from protein dilution, much of the variation represents physiological differences between individual animals and tissues in the same animal. An IgG2/IgG1 ratio approaching that of serum occurred in a mastitic quarter of one cow. IgA was the principal immunoglobulin in saliva and tears, comprised a greater proportion of the immunoglobulin in milk whey than in prepartum lacteal secretions and was a minor immunoglobulin in bovine serum.     

Employer and new graduate satisfaction with new graduate performance in the workplace within the first year following convocation from the Ontario Veterinary College

Mailed questionnaires administered to employers of graduates and to graduates of the Ontario Veterinary College in 2000 and 2001, 7 to 10 months after convocation, surveyed new graduate performance in the workplace. Proficiency at 9 species-specific (in 4 practice contexts) and 7 nonspecies-specific clinical activities were rated as "high," "some," or "low." Fifteen nonvocation-specific attributes, reflecting interpersonal, communication, and business skills, and the new graduate's competence to do his/her job were rated as "very good," "good," or "poor." Ninety or more percent of employers reported "high" to "some" proficiency in 8/9, 5/9, 3/9, and 1/9 activities relative to small animal, food animal, equine, and exotic animal practice, respectively, and in 5/7 nonspecies-specific clinical activities. Ninety or more percent of employers assessed workplace proficiency as "very good" to "good" in 13/15 nonvocation-specific work skills and overall competence to do the job for which the new graduate had been hired.     

Population structure of Argas arboreus (Acari: Argasidae) ticks associated with seasonally abandoned mixed heronries, dominated by cattle egrets (Bubulcus ibis), in South Africa

During winter populations of Argas arboreus from heronries of the cattle egret, Bubulcus ibis, in South Africa are composed of adults, with some predominance of males, and II-IV instar nymphs, in a state of diapause. The period of tick activity, including reproduction and development of eggs, larvae and N1 nymphs, is synchronized with the nesting and breeding season of their avian hosts. It begins during spring with the return of birds to the heronry, and ceases in autumn through induction of reproductive diapause in engorged females, and behavioural diapause in unfed nymphs and adult ticks. Many ticks showed morphological anomalies and malformations, the study of which could possibly be used for monitoring of environmental pollution.