Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the Earth sciences

Verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible. This is because natural systems are never closed and because model results are always nonunique. Models can be confirmed by the demonstration of agreement between observation and prediction, but confirmation is inherently partial. Complete confirmation is logically precluded by the fallacy of affirming the consequent and by incomplete access to natural phenomena. Models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and their predictive value is always open to question. The primary value of models is heuristic.     

A formation mechanism for catalytically grown helix-shaped graphite nanotubes

The concept of a spatial-velocity hodograph is introduced to describe quantitatively the extrusion of a carbon tubule from a catalytic particle. The conditions under which a continuous tubular surface can be generated are discussed in terms of this hodograph, the shape of which determines the geometry of the initial nanotube. The model is consistent with all observed tubular shapes and explains why the formation process induces stresses that may lead to "spontaneous" plastic deformation of the tubule. This result is due to the violation of the continuity condition, that is, to the mismatch between the extrusion velocity by the catalytic particle, required to generate a continuous tubular surface, and the rate of carbon deposition.     

Effect of progesterone on ovulation in the hypophysectomised hen

1. One hundred and seven laying hens were hypophysec‐tomised to clarify the relationship between hypophysectomy and the effect of progesterone (P4) on ovulation.

2. Hens were hypophysectomised at 6 intervals from 4.5 to 11.0 h before the expected time of ovulation. Ovulation occurred in the hens operated on from 4.5 to 7.3 h, but did not take place in birds operated on from 9.2 to 9.8 h before the expected time of ovulation.

3. When a single dose of P4 (2 mg/hen) was injected iv immediately after the removal of the anterior pituitary from 7.5 to 9.8 h before the expected time of ovulation, ovulation was induced. However, the percentage of hens responding decreased in proportion to the lapse of time between the hypophysectomy and the expected time of ovulation. No ovulation was induced in hens which were hypophysectomized and given P4 10.2 to 11.0 h before the expected time of ovulation.

4. It is suggested that ovulation is induced by P4 alone possibly in the absence of preovulatory gonadotrophins and that P4 acts directly on the ovary to induce follicle rupture.     

Book reviews

Manipulation of the Avian Genome. Edited by R. J. Etches & A. M. V. Gibbins, 1993. 322 pp., illustrated in colour. Boca Raton, FL, CRG Press. ISBN 0–8493–4216–3.

Proceedings of the 8th European Symposium on Poultry Nutrition. Edited by The Organizing Committee, 1992. 373 pp. Milan, Italy. World's Poultry Science Association.     

Effects of cultivar,pelleting and enzyme addition on nutritive value of barley in poultry diets

1. The effect of pelleting process and Trichoderma viride enzymes (TVE) addition on apparent metabolisable energy, corrected for nitrogen balance (AMEn) and on productive value of practical diets containing 40 and 45% of three different barley cultivars and one wheat were studied in poultry.

2. The effect of the pelleting process on AMEn was inconsistent and was dependent on the cereal included and the addition of enzyme.

3. The growth trial showed a significant effect of enzyme addition to pelleted diets over the whole growth period (0 to 42 d). Addition of TVE improved weight gain and food efficiency by 1.3% and 2.9%, respectively and decreased food intake by 1.6% between 0 and 22 d. In the finisher period (23 to 42 d) TVE improved efficiency by 2.8% and reduced food intake by 2.9%.

4. The incidence of sticky droppings was related to the viscosity of barley used, and enzyme supplementation reduced it. Both pelleting and enzyme addition increased dry matter content of excreta.

5. At the end of the experiment, 14 animals per treatment were slaughtered and carcass yield, viscera weight and abdominal fat were determined.