A survey of the phosphorus and calcium contents of pastures and the serum inorganic phosphorus and calcium contents of cows on four Manawatu dairy farms

Serum inorganic phosphorus (Pi) and calcium (Ca) concentrations were assessed in 20 cows on each of four Manawatu factory supply dairy farms. Blood was taken from each cow before calving and at six-week intervals during lactation. Bleeding coincided with herd testing. Herds of Friesian or Friesian X cows and Jersey or Jersey X cows were compared on adjacent farms on a Central Yellow-brown Sand and on adjacent farms on a Peat Loam overlying a Central Yellow-brown Earth soil. Pasture mass and composition were estimated to grazing height in the next two paddocks to be grazed in the rotation. Mean serum Pi concentration was higher in cows on sandy soils (1.55 mmol Pi/l than in cows on the peat loam (1.34 mmol Pi/l (P<0.001). Concentrations were highest before calving (1.69 mmol Pi/l) but fell to low levels at peak lactation (1.17mmol Pi/l when 70% of cows were below the minima of the 'normal range', and during the drought (1.29 mmol Pi/l. Pasture phosphorus (P) concentrations were adequate to support cow nutrition for lactation (>0.33% DM, ad lib. feeding) until the summer drought when low herbage mass would have restricted milk production. Serum Ca was adequate for lactating cows and changed little between months or between cows (mean 2.12 mmol Ca/l). No metabolic disorders relating to mineral deficiencies were observed. It appears that serum Pi in a high proportion of cows falls below the normal range during peak lactation without cows displaying clinical deficiency symptoms or a depression in butterfat production.     

Selenium supplementation of young red deer (Cervus elaphus)

Two selenium (Se) supplementation trials were conducted in successive years involving a total of 70 red deer calves 3-15 months of age grazing pasture containing 30-57 ppb of Se on a dry matter basis. The trials compared growth rate, whole blood Se and glutathione peroxidase (GSHpx) concentrations of calves which received periodic doses of oral Se or a single injection of barium selenate (equivalent to 50 mg Se) or no Se supplementation. There were no significant weight gain differences between treated and untreated groups in either trial. Whole blood GSHpx levels were strongly correlated with blood Se levels (r = 0.9278) and produced the following regression equation: GSHpx = 0.0155 Se - 2.292. In both years the 3 month old calves had GSHpx levels of 6-9 kU/I which probably derived from maternal transfer of Se. The GSHpx levels in unsupplemented calves declined from these levels to a minimum in winter (group means approximately 2.6) and then progressively rose the following spring and summer. Periodical oral dosing with Se or a single injection of barium selenate significantly elevated blood Se and GSHpx levels throughout the trials.     

Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the Earth sciences

Verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible. This is because natural systems are never closed and because model results are always nonunique. Models can be confirmed by the demonstration of agreement between observation and prediction, but confirmation is inherently partial. Complete confirmation is logically precluded by the fallacy of affirming the consequent and by incomplete access to natural phenomena. Models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and their predictive value is always open to question. The primary value of models is heuristic.