A review of decision-making approaches to handle uncertainty and risk in adaptive forest management under climate change

• Context  

This review paper provides an overview of approaches to which we may resort for handling the complex decision problems involving uncertainty and risk that climate change implies for forest managers. Modelling approaches that could support adaptive management strategies seem to be called for, not only as climate change denotes increased economic uncertainty but also because new and more reliable information becomes available as time passes and climate changes.     

Sensitivity of Two Quinoa (ChenopodiumquinoaWilld.) Varieties to Progressive Drought Stress

Quinoa (ChenopodiumquinoaWilld.) is a highly nutritious Andean seed crop which shows great potential to grow under a range of hostile environments. The objective of this study was to investigate the differences of drought tolerance of a Bolivian (Achachino) and a Danish (Titicaca) variety, and especially drought‐related adaption strategies. Soil water status was expressed as the fraction of transpirable soil water (FTSW). Relative stomatal conductance (RSC), relative transpiration (RT) and relative leaf water potential (RLW) were calculated by determining stomatal conductance, transpiration rate and leaf water potential of the drought‐treated plants relative to those of fully irrigated plants. The responses of RSC, RT and RLW to decreasing FTSW were described by a linear‐plateau model. The critical value of FTSW was the threshold of FTSW where the parameters studied decreased. The thresholds increased C_S for stomatal conductance, C_T for transpiration and C_Lfor leaf water potential. Achachino showed significantly lower C_T and C_L when compared with Titicaca, implying that transpiration and leaf water potential were less affected under mild drought conditions in the Bolivian variety. C_S in Achachino was significantly higher than C_L and C_T, which indicated that stomatal conductance declined before transpiration and leaf water potential were reduced. Such difference was found in Titicaca where reduction of leaf area had more effect on transpiration than stomatal closure. Slower growth rate and smaller leaf area in combination with a lower stomatal conductance was found to contribute to drought resistance in Achachino. ABA concentration in the xylem sap tended to increase in both varieties after 2 days onset of drought, prior to decline in leaf water potential. Titicaca showed significantly (P < 0.05) higher ABA concentration when compared with Achachino under both fully irrigated and drought conditions. Titicaca had higher xylem nutrient concentration in comparison with Achachino in both fully‐watered and drought plants at day 2 after onset of soil drying. It was concluded that Titicaca was more sensitive to progressive drought than Achachino which avoided water loss by means of lower growth rate and smaller leaf area.     

Yield potential and salt tolerance of quinoa on salt‐degraded soils of Pakistan

Quinoa is recently introduced to Pakistan as a salt‐tolerant crop of high nutritional value. Open field trials were conducted to evaluate its performance on normal and salinity/sodicity‐degraded lands at two locations of different salinity/sodicity levels, S₁ (UAF Farm, Normal Soil), S₂ (Paroka Farm UAF, saline sodic), S₃ (SSRI Farm, normal) and S₄ (SSRI Farm, saline sodic) during 2013–2014. Two genotypes (Q‐2 and Q‐7) were grown in lines and were allowed to grow till maturity under RCBD split‐plot arrangement. Maximum seed yield (3,062 kg/ha) was achieved by Q‐7 at normal field (S₁) soil which was statistically similar with yield of same genotype obtained from salt‐affected field S₂ (2,870 kg/ha). Furthermore, low yield was seen from both genotypes from both S₃ and S₄ as compared to S₁ and S₂. Q‐7 was best under all four conditions. Minimum yield was recorded from Q‐2 (1,587 kg/ha) at S₄. Q‐7 had higher SOD, proline, phenolic and K⁺ contents, and lower Na⁺ content in leaves as compared to Q‐2. High levels of antioxidants and K⁺/Na⁺ of Q‐7 helped to withstand salt stress and might be the cause of higher yields under both normal and salt‐affected soils. Seed quality (mineral and protein) did not decrease considerably under salt‐affected soils even improved seed K⁺, Mg²⁺ and Mn²⁺.     

Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8)-associated brain malformations in two calves

Congenital brain malformations such as hydranencephaly as well as internal and external hydrocephalus combined with porencephaly were diagnosed in two calves which were born in spring 2008. In both calves bluetongue virus was detected by real-time PCR. Teratogenic pestiviruses were not found by serological, molecular or immunohistological methods. A causal relationship between the malformations and the bluetongue serotype 8 epidemic in 2007 has to be considered.     

Evaluation of a commercially available apparatus for measuring the acute phase protein serum amyloid A in horses

The aim of this study was to investigate the reliability of an immunoturbidometric assay for measuring the acute phase protein serum amyloid A (SAA) in horses in clinical practice. The assay was compared to a previously validated assay, and overlap performance was assessed by measuring the concentration of SAA in clinically healthy horses and horses with inflammatory and non-inflammatory diseases. In pools of serum with low and high SAA concentrations the assay's intra-assay coefficients of variation were 11.7 per cent and 4.6 per cent, and its interassay coefficients of variation were 9.1 per cent and 5.6 per cent, respectively. Slight inaccuracies were observed, but they were negligible in comparison with the range of the SAA response. The assay systematically underestimated the concentrations of SAA in comparison with the results of the validated assay. The assay detected the expected difference in SAA concentrations between the healthy and diseased horses.     

Ventral meningomyelocele in a German warmblood foal

A ventral meningomyelocele was found in a five week old, male German warmblood foal which exhibited central nervous symptoms. This rare malformation in horses may be caused by absent or defective fusion of vertebral bodies leading to herniation of the spinal cord and meninges with subsequent degenerative alterations of the spinal cord.     

The cytokine response of circulating peripheral blood mononuclear cells is changed after intravenous injection of lipopolysaccharide in cattle

The aim of the study was to investigate lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced short and long term changes in capacity for intracellular cytokine-production of bovine circulating peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). Eight dairy cows each received three intravenous injections of Escherichia coli LPS (10, 100 and 1000ng/kg, consecutively) at 3week intervals. Intracellular cytokine production was determined by flow cytometry in PBMCs obtained 0, 2, 6 and 24h after each LPS challenge. After LPS administration, proportions of monocytes producing tumour necrosis factor (TNF) alpha, interleukin (IL)-1beta and IL-8, as well as proportions of circulating lymphocytes producing interferon (IFN) gamma, decreased significantly. Within 24h, proportions had returned to or increased above pre-injection levels. Proportions of lymphocytes producing IL-4 and IL-10 increased significantly after injection of 1000ng LPS/kg. This study demonstrated that cytokine profiles shift quickly, but temporarily, to favour the anti-inflammatory response immediately after LPS exposure. The long term response to LPS was opposite to the immediate response, as cytokine profiles shifted in the 3weeks between challenges towards a pro-inflammatory response. Proportions of monocytes producing IL-1beta and TNFalpha determined immediately before the second and/or third LPS injection were higher than proportions determined before the first injection, whereas pre-injection proportions of lymphocytes producing IL-4 decreased with each challenge. These changes may result in a quicker host response to invading pathogens.     

The degree of starch phosphorylation as influenced by phosphate deprivation of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) plants

Summary The levels of starch phosphorylation in potato tubers were investigated in relation to fertilization with phosphorus (P) of field-grown and greenhouse-grown plants. The field-grown plants received 0, 15 or 30 kg P ha⁻¹. Starch from plants grown without P-fertilizer contained 15.6 nmol P (mg starch)⁻¹ whereas starch from plants grown with 30 kg P ha⁻¹ contained 20.6 nmol P (mg starch)⁻¹. The greenhouse-grown plants were cultured in inert media and received nutrient solutions containing 0, 3, 12 or 24 mg P l⁻¹, respectively. Plants grown with no P-fertilizer produced tuber starch with phosphorylation levels reduced to approximately 30% of the level found in plants grown with an ample supply of P. Thus, the level of starch phosphorylation can be modified by limiting the P-supply through the root system. Application of foliar P-fertilizer to the greenhouse-grown plants had no significant effect on the phosphorylation of the tuber starch.