Risk assessment of dietary exposure to pesticides using a Bayesian method

Risk assessment of pesticides can be a statistically difficult problem because pesticides occur only occasionally, but they may occur on multiple components in the diet. A Bayesian statistical model is presented which incorporates multivariate modelling of food consumption and modelling of pesticide measurements which are for a large part below a measurement threshold. It is shown that Bayesian modelling is feasible for a limited number of food components, and that in a data-rich situation the model compares well with an empirical Monte Carlo modelling.     

Pharmacokinetics of sulfamethazine in male, female and castrated male swine

The concentration of sulfamethazine in plasma and sulfamethazine and its metabolites in urine were compared in male, female and castrated male swine. A surgical technique for placement of catheters in the urinary bladder was used to facilitate the collection of urine in males and castrated males. The elimination rate of sulfamethazine from plasma and the excretion of parent drug and metabolites into urine did not differ significantly among females, males and castrated male swine.     

Factors affecting the phase-out of pesticide use in public areas in Denmark

That pesticide use in public areas in Denmark has been significantly reduced during the period 1995 to 2002 is shown when comparing three surveys carried out by the Danish Forest and Landscape Research Institute (DFLRI) with funding from the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. During that period, the total registered public use of pesticides was reduced from 28.8 tonnes active ingredients to 6.3 tonnes, corresponding to a 78% reduction. In 2002, the Danish counties and state institutions had reduced their total pesticide use by 80% and 73%, respectively, compared to 1995 figures. Similarly, the Danish municipalities reduced their use by 83% from 1995 to 2002. Surveys of municipal pesticide use carried out in 1995, 2000 and 2002 have been used as the basis for determining the factors that have influenced municipal reductions of pesticide use. The 2000 and 2002 trends can be explained partly on the basis of the figures for 1995 use. The trend for 2002 can also be partially explained by the political parties in power in the municipalities during the phase-out period. The models used account for up to 30% of the total variations, meaning that the pesticide use of individual municipalities is very much influenced by other, non-definable factors such as tradition.     

Serological evidence of akabane virus infection in northern Israel in 2001

In February 2002 the first cases of a "blind newborn calves" syndrome with hydranencephaly appeared in Israel. Eighty-one serum samples, from 54 animals on farms where the syndrome was recorded and 27 others from unaffected farms were examined by neutralization of Akabane virus (AKAV, strain OBE-1) by the micro-titer method. Forty-seven of the 54 samples from the affected farms contained high serum neutralization titers against AKAV (mean SN titer 79.5 and +/- 44.7, standard deviation), whereas only one of the 27 samples from the unaffected farms was positive (titer of 8). These results suggest that the vector(s) of AKAV was circulating in Israel in August through December, 2001.     

Modeling carbon allocation in trees: a search for principles

We review approaches to predicting carbon and nitrogen allocation in forest models in terms of their underlying assumptions and their resulting strengths and limitations. Empirical and allometric methods are easily developed and computationally efficient, but lack the power of evolution-based approaches to explain and predict multifaceted effects of environmental variability and climate change. In evolution-based methods, allocation is usually determined by maximization of a fitness proxy, either in a fixed environment, which we call optimal response (OR) models, or including the feedback of an individual's strategy on its environment (game-theoretical optimization, GTO). Optimal response models can predict allocation in single trees and stands when there is significant competition only for one resource. Game-theoretical optimization can be used to account for additional dimensions of competition, e.g., when strong root competition boosts root allocation at the expense of wood production. However, we demonstrate that an OR model predicts similar allocation to a GTO model under the root-competitive conditions reported in free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiments. The most evolutionarily realistic approach is adaptive dynamics (AD) where the allocation strategy arises from eco-evolutionary dynamics of populations instead of a fitness proxy. We also discuss emerging entropy-based approaches that offer an alternative thermodynamic perspective on allocation, in which fitness proxies are replaced by entropy or entropy production. To help develop allocation models further, the value of wide-ranging datasets, such as FLUXNET, could be greatly enhanced by ancillary measurements of driving variables, such as water and soil nitrogen availability.