Forecasting monthly catfish (Ictalurus punctatus.) pond bank and feed prices

Volatility in catfish pond bank and feed prices lead to profit uncertainty in the catfish industry. Analysis of the factors that affect those prices and development of a forecasting model would provide guidance to catfish farm managers. Error-correction models (ECM) based on cointegrating relationships among variables were specified following development of a single-equation ARIMAX model. Factors identified as those that influence catfish price were: lagged value of catfish, feed and substitute product prices, while those that influenced feed price were: lagged value of feed, corn and soybean prices. ECM estimates implied that fish price adjusts approximately 6% and feed price 22% to the long-run equilibrium in 1?month. The analysis showed that it takes less than 17?months and 5?months to correct for long-run disequilibrium for catfish and feed prices, respectively. The ARIMAX model demonstrated a better fit for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting for catfish price and had better out-of-sample predictive ability for feed prices.     

The interactive effects of paternal size and offspring feeding strategy on offspring fitness of an Indian major carp Labeo rohita (Hamilton, 1822)

Parental condition‐dependent offspring fitness is a well‐discussed issue in animal breeding research, while offspring environment and its interaction with parental condition are currently another very interesting topic to investigate the plasticity of phenotypic traits across an environmental gradient. The present study was, therefore, conducted following a half‐sib breeding design to test the effects of (a) paternal body size, (b) offspring feeding strategy (everyday and every other day) and (c) their interactions on fitness‐related traits (e.g., survival, total length and body area) of offspring of a commercially important aquaculture species, the Indian major carp (Labeo rohita). The analysis revealed that paternal body size had significant effects on offspring survival rate and total length, while no significant influence was found in body area. The study also showed that the offspring feeding strategy significantly affected all offspring traits. Interestingly, the study unveiled the significant interactive effects of paternal condition and offspring feeding for offspring survival rate and total length. These findings suggest that paternal size, offspring rearing environment and their interactions can influence offspring fitness‐related traits which are very essential information for the sustainable production of good quality larvae under variable dietary conditions.     

Effects of light and artificial fish shelter (PVC pipe) on some phenotypic traits of stinging catfish (Heteropneustes fossilis Bloch, 1794)

Light and shelter are very important ecological factors that can affect many traits of fish. Therefore, a study was conducted to explore the effect of light and shelter on some phenotypic traits of stinging catfish (Heteropneustes fossilis Bloch, 1794). During experiment, equal‐sized juveniles (mean ± SE: 9.04 ± 0.09 cm) were collected and reared in aquariums dividing into four treatment groups, such as T₁ (0L:24D without pipe), T₂ (0L:24D with pipe), T₃ (12L:12D without pipe) and T₄ (12L:12D with pipe). Each treatment had 36 fish, which were randomly distributed into three replications. The fish were kept up to 120 days, and then, the growth performance and skin colour were analysed. The results showed that both lighting and shelter conditions as well as their interactions had significant effects on some traits expression. The analyses revealed that lighting condition significantly influenced body area, head width and skin coloration, while shelter condition significantly affected total and standard length, body area, and their interaction showed significant effects on body area, head width and anal fin length. Thus, this study indicates that stinging catfish show better growth performance and colour patterns especially in dark and sheltered conditions which could be recommended for the successive production of this highly priced fish species.     

基于WorldView-2影像的土壤含盐量反演模型

针对WorldView-2影像高空间分辨率评价其定量反演土壤含盐量的能力,以盐渍化现象较为明显的新疆克里雅河流域为研究对象,基于WorldView-2影像和实测高光谱数据,利用偏最小二乘回归(partial least squares regression,PLSR)和BP人工神经网络(back propagation artificial neural networks,BP ANN)方法建立定量反演该流域土壤含盐量模型并做出研究区高空间分辨率土壤含盐量分布图。结果表明:1)利用实测高光谱数据和影像数据分别建立的2种模型中BP神经网络模型预测精度都高于PLSR模型,其中基于影像数据建立的6:8:1结构的3层BP神经网络模型决定系数R2、均方根误差RMSE、相对分析误差RPD分别为0.851、0.979、2.337,模型的稳定性和预测能力都优于PLSR模型(R2、RMSE、RPD分别为0.814、1.139、2.007)。2)利用WorldView-2影像提高了土壤含盐量制图的空间分辨率,归一化植被指数NDVI和比例植被指数RVI较有效降低了植被覆盖与土壤水分对预测精度的影响。该文建立的考虑植被覆盖与土壤水分定量反演土壤含盐量的模型不需要复杂的参数,一定程度上满足了干旱、半干旱地区的盐渍化监测需求,可以促进WorldView-2等高空间分辨率卫星在盐渍化监测中的进一步应用。     

Population ecology parameters and biomass of golden grey mullet (Liza aurata) in Iranian waters of the Caspian Sea

This paper examines the changes in the population ecology parameters and biomass of golden grey mullet (Liza aurata) in Iranian waters of the Caspian Sea from 1991 to 2005. For most years during this 14-year period, we estimated the age structure of the catch, length–weight relationship, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, condition factor, natural and fishing mortality and biomass. Growth parameters were estimated as L_∞ = 62.7 cm, K = 0.15 year⁻¹, t₀ = −0.23 year⁻¹. The instantaneous coefficient of natural mortality was estimated as 0.350 year⁻¹ and the instantaneous coefficient of fishing mortality varied during the 14-year period between 0.111 to 0.539 year⁻¹. Biomass estimates of golden grey mullet, from the biomass-based cohort analysis were increased from 13,527 mt in 1991–1992 to 23,992 mt in 2002–2003. In 2004–2005, it was estimated to be 23,658 mt. We concluded that at the present time, the stock of golden grey mullet is not being over-fished.     

Ecosystem effects of invertebrate fisheries

Since the 1950s, invertebrate fisheries catches have rapidly expanded globally to more than 10 million tonnes annually, with twice as many target species, and are now significant contributors to global seafood provision, export, trade and local livelihoods. Invertebrates play important and diverse functional roles in marine ecosystems, yet the ecosystem effects of their exploitation are poorly understood. Using 12 ecosystem models distributed worldwide, we analysed the trade‐offs of various invertebrate fisheries and their ecosystem effects as well as ecological indicators. Although less recognized for their contributions to marine food webs, our results show that the magnitude of trophic impacts of invertebrates on other species of commercial and conservation interest is comparable with those of forage fish. Generally, cephalopods showed the strongest ecosystem effects and were characterized by a strong top‐down predatory role. Lobster, and to a lesser extent, crabs, shrimp and prawns, also showed strong ecosystem effects, but at lower trophic levels. Benthic invertebrates, including epifauna and infauna, also showed considerable ecosystem effects, but with strong bottom‐up characteristics. In contrast, urchins, bivalves, and gastropods showed generally lower ecosystem effects in our simulations. Invertebrates also strongly contributed to benthic–pelagic coupling, with exploitation of benthic invertebrates impacting pelagic fishes and vice versa. Finally, on average, invertebrates produced maximum sustainable yield at lower levels of depletion (~45%) than forage fish (~65%), highlighting the need for management targets that avoid negative consequences for target species and marine ecosystems as a whole.     

Note: Does<Emphasis Type="Italic">Liriomyza cicerina</Emphasis> affect the yield of chickpeas (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cicer arietinum</Emphasis>)?

Liriomyza cicerina (Rondani, 1875) (Diptera: Agromyzidae) is an important pest on chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) in some regions of Turkey. The objective of this study was to determine whether the populations ofL. cicerina on different varieties of chickpea plants during the 2004 and 2005 production seasons affected yield in Sanliurfa province. The trials were carried out using eight different varieties of chickpea with three replicates. During each season, larval densities on leaves were assessed weekly. TheL. cicerina larval population was lowest on four varieties for both seasons. There were very minor differences in yield among the eight varieties in the production seasons. There was no correlation found between larval density and yield loss. http://www.phytoparasitica.org posting Jan. 14, 2007.     

Constituents and cytotoxicity of Zanthoxylum rhesta stem bark

3,5-Dimethoxy-4-geranyloxycinnamyl alcohol (1), 8-methoxy-N-methylflindersine (2), xanthyletin and sesamin have been isolated from petroleum ether extract of the stem bark of Zanthoxylum rhesta. The petroleum ether extract and 8-methoxy-N-methylflindersine showed cytotoxicity on brine shrimp nauplii.     

Qualitative risk assessment of transmission pathways of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus at live poultry markets in Dhaka city,Bangladesh

Analysis of environmental samples obtained from the Live Poultry Markets (LPMs) of Dhaka City, Bangladesh, has revealed that the highest degree of prevalence of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI, H5N1), besides other subtypes of the LPAI virus, poses the plausible risk of transmission of these viruses between human and poultry species. The present study was conducted using the OIE risk analysis framework to assess the risk level of each pathway successively. The estimated risk parameters were integrated towards to obtain the overall risk level for each specific HPAI transmission pathway using the matrix adapted by Cristobel Zepeda accompanying other expert consultations. The relevant data obtained from published and unpublished sources, together with survey data of field observations, were used to formulate and confirm the risk pathways and their associated risks. The results revealed that the risk of the release of the HPAI virus was medium when exposure was high. Additionally, the consequence would be considered very high with a medium degree of uncertainty for all parameters. Ultimately, the overall risk for transmission was estimated as medium with a medium degree of uncertainty. The findings of this study reveal that there is a significant threat that HPAI virus transmission could occur among poultry and humans and effectively sustain within the environment of the LPMs. Our findings are primarily focused on public health considerations, the hygienic slaughter of poultry and the relevant cleaning and sanitation practices conducted in the LPMs to support evidence‐based decision‐making processes. The findings of the study have the potential to be used to formulate effective risk reduction measures and can be further adapted in low‐resource settings without major infrastructural changes required of the LPMs. All of which would reduce the risk of HPAI virus release and further lessen the degree of exposure and transmission in established LPMs.