An economic model to calculate farm-specific losses due to bovine respiratory disease in dairy heifers

This paper describes a personal-computer-based model estimating the economic losses associated with clinical bovine respiratory disease in replacement heifers raised on individual dairy farms. The model is based on the partial-budgeting technique, and calculates the losses for two types of the disease separately: calf pneumonia and a seasonal outbreak. Model input includes farm-specific data such as the incidence of bovine respiratory disease, prices, and effects of the disease on the heifers' productivity. The input database was linked directly with the economic model. For all input parameters, default values used are available to the user and can be modified easily.Losses considered by the model include treatment expenditures and costs associated with increased mortality, increased premature culling, reduced growth, reduced fertility and reduced milk production in first lactation. Uncertainty is taken into account for parameters related to disease incidence, mortality and culling.Basic calculations for a typical Dutch dairy farm with 60% of the heifers (<3 months) affected, indicated total annual losses due to pneumonia average 31.2 per heifer present on the farm (range 18.4-57.1). The estimated losses for one seasonal outbreak with heifers up to 15-months old affected were 27.0 per heifer present (range 17.2-43.1). For both BRD types, the model's outcome was most sensitive to the number of heifers affected. Most of the parameters that had a major impact on the total losses were related to treatment or to the effects on the heifers' productivity.The model is user-friendly and flexible, and can be used as an interactive tool by farmers and veterinarians in the (economic) decision-making process regarding on-farm prevention and control of bovine respiratory disease.     

An epidemiological study of sheep deaths before and during export by sea from Western Australia

A study was conducted to record the deaths that occurred during export, and to examine the temporal pattern of pellet feeding in the feedlot and ascertain the variation in mortality between groups of sheep from different farms. Between November 1985 and April 1987, 5 cohorts of sheep were selected on arrival at a feedlot before live export by sea from Western Australia to the Middle East. Each cohort consisted of 4,118 to 9,612 Merino wethers from 15 to 35 farms (lines). There were few deaths during trucking to the feedlot (rate 0.9, range 0.0 to 3.0 per 10,000 sheep) and during lot-feeding (rate 6.2, range 1.2 to 12.2 per 10,000 sheep). Most of the deaths occurred aboard ship (rate 210.7, range 152.7 to 271.5 per 10,000 sheep). The proportion of sheep that ate pelleted feed increased with increasing length of time in the feedlot. By the end of lot-feeding the percentage of sheep that had not eaten pellets was 23.3, 4.4, 1.2, 2.1 and 0.2 in a representative sample of each of the 5 cohorts. It was considered that offering hay throughout lot-feeding was undesirable for the purpose of maximising the number of sheep that ate pellets before loading on the ship. Half of the deaths aboard ship occurred in 25% of 133 lines of sheep in the 5 cohorts. In each cohort the median per cent death rate (and range) per line was 1.3 (0.3 to 11.9), 1.1 (0.0 to 5.7), 1.8 (0.0 to 6.8), 2.3 (0.0 to 14.3) and 0.9 (0.1 to 5.4).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

A severity score for spontaneous canine acute pancreatitis

Objective To derive a severity score for spontaneous canine acute pancreatitis applicable to general practice.
Design Cohort study of canine pancreatitis cases.
Procedure Cases (n = 68) of spontaneous canine acute pancreatitis presented to general practitioners were identified among accessions to Veterinary Pathology Services Brisbane. The primary veterinarian was surveyed by telephone to ascertain the outcome of each case. Scores were assigned for extent of hyperamylasaemia, hyperlipasaemia and number of organ systems other than the pancreas compromised. The probability of mortality with each score of each analyte was calculated. The strength of interaction between scores for each analyte and mortality rate was assessed by chi-square analysis where appropriate. Relationships between the organ system score, other physiological variables and likelihood of euthanasia were analysed.
Results Scores derived mathematically from analysis of enzyme activities had poor abilities to predict mortality. The score based upon the number of organ systems compromised showed good ability to predict mortality and the interaction between the organ system score and mortality rate was significant by chi-square analysis (P < 0.01). Distribution of data within the amylase and lipase scores was not compatible with chi-square analysis.
Conclusion Assessment of severity of spontaneous canine acute pancreatitis using pancreatic enzyme activities is potentially inaccurate. The use of a severity score based upon organ system compromise was more accurate in determining the likelihood of mortality in spontaneous canine acute pancreatitis. This is compatible with the hypothesis that severe canine acute pancreatitis is a multiple organ failure syndrome.     

Quantifying characteristics of information-technology applications based on expert knowledge for detection of oestrus and mastitis in dairy cows

Expert opinions were elicited about the characteristics at the commercial-farm level of on-line information technology (IT) applications that are able to detect oestrus and mastitis in dairy cows. Since actual data of these characteristics are not available, judgmental data provided an alternative means to interpret the implications of research results for commercial farms. Applications included were activity measurement, milk-production measurement, electrical conductivity of quarter milk, automated concentrate feeders and milk-temperature measurement. Sensitivity and specificity of detection of oestrus (OD), clinical-mastitis (CMD) and subclinical-mastitis (SCMD) were ascertained. Conjoint-analysis was used to assess the effect of each application indirectly by decomposing the evaluated overall detection characteristics of a predefined number of IT combinations.

The individual experts were consistent in evaluating the alternatives, but there was variation in estimates among experts. Estimations of the main effects of the applications and important first-order interactions were incorporated into the detection models. Implementation of all applications under study resulted in overall sensitivities and specificities of 82% and 90%, 73% and 87%, 58% and 82% for OD, CMD and SCMD, respectively. Further research is necessary that should take into account costs and benefits of the different detection systems based on the current status of farm performance (e.g. OD and mastitis incidence) and farm structure (e.g. farm size, years in operation of the milking parlour and parlour layout). Research to do this is currently in progress.     

Effectiveness of simulated interventions in reducing the estimated prevalence of E. coli O157:H7 in lactating cows in dairy herds

A transmission model developed to investigate the dynamics of Escherichia coli O157:H7 bacteria in a typical Dutch dairy herd was used to assess the effectiveness of vaccination, diet modification, probiotics (colicin) and hygienic measures as to water troughs and bedding, when they are applied single or in combination, in reducing the prevalence of infected animals. The aim was to rank interventions based on their effectiveness in reducing the baseline prevalence of infected animals in the lactating group. The baseline prevalence of the lactating group and the within-herd prevalence were estimated by the model to be 5.02% and 13.96% respectively. The results show that all four interventions, if applied to all four animal groups or only to young stock, are the most effective and will reduce the baseline prevalence by 84% to 99%. In general, combinations of hygiene (applied in all groups) and one other intervention had the highest effectiveness in reducing prevalence in the lactating group. Vaccination and diet modification show a slightly higher effectiveness than colicin and hygiene.