A model to estimate the financial consequences of classical swine fever outbreaks: principles and outcomes

A model is presented aimed at a financial analysis of a Classical Swine Fever outbreak. Financial consequences are calculated for affected parties, including governments (EU and national), farms, and related industries in the production chain. The model can be used to calculate the losses of a real outbreak as well as of a simulated one. In this article, the model is applied to the 1997/1998 outbreak of Classical Swine Fever in the Netherlands. Results show that total financial consequences of the outbreak are US $2.3 billion. Consequential losses for farmers and related industries are US $423 million and US $596 million respectively. Budgetary consequences for governments include less than 50% of the total losses calculated by the model. The model can be adapted easily to suit other diseases and countries.     

Bio‐economic modelling of potato brown rot in the Netherlands*

A research project is being undertaken to design a bio‐economic model of potato brown rot (Ralstonia solanacearum) in the Netherlands. The first part of the project consists of an analysis of the past and current brown rot policy for its effectiveness and costs. Then, a stochastic, bio‐economic model will be designed that shows the relationship between the costs of control measures and their effect on the probability of brown rot. This model will eventually be used to determine optimal control strategies and to make recommendations for improvement of the Dutch brown rot policy.     

Early central andean metalworking from mina perdida, peru

Copper and gold artifacts in contexts dated to approximately 3120 to 3020 carbon-14 years before the present ( approximately 1410 to 1090 calendar years B.C.) recovered in excavations at Mina Perdida, Lurin Valley, Peru, show that artisans hammered native metals into thin foils, in some cases with intermediate anneals. They gilded copper artifacts by attaching gold foil. The artifacts show that fundamental elements of the Andean metallurgical tradition were developed before the Chavin horizon, and that on the Peruvian coast the working of native copper preceded the production of smelted copper objects.     

Magnetic microstructure of magnetotactic bacteria by electron holography

Off-axis electron holography in the transmission electron microscope was used to correlate the physical and magnetic microstructure of magnetite nanocrystals in magnetotactic bacteria. The magnetite crystals were all single magnetic domains, and the magnetization directions of small superparamagnetic crystals were constrained by magnetic interactions with larger crystals in the chains. Shape anisotropy was found to dominate magnetocrystalline anisotropy in elongated crystals. A coercive field between 300 and 450 oersted was determined for one chain.     

Estimation of a reliable evapotranspiration model and crop coefficient in red gram ( Cajanus cajan L .) for semi-arid environments in India

The study aims to compute the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) by six standard methods such as Penman Monteith, Modified Penman, Hargreaves, Radiation Balance, Blaney Criddle and Pan Evaporation by using the meteorological data of the All India Coordinated Research Project on Water Management at Rahuri, India (long. 74° 18′, lat. 19° 45′). These methods were compared with lysimeter crop evapotranspiration (ETc) by statistical tools. The results revealed that the total lysimeter ETc of red gram in 132 days' growing period (sowing to harvest) was 494?mm and the ETo in the above-mentioned models were 485.2, 486.9, 544.6, 547.6, 563.9 and 485.2?mm, respectively. Out of six models, ETo of Modified Penman and Pan Evaporation methods were very much close to lysimeter ETc, but the coefficient of variation was very high, i.e., 43.05% and 23.91%, respectively. But in the Hargreaves and Blaney Criddle methods, the coefficient of variation was low, i.e., 15.97% and 12.6%, respectively. Besides low coefficient of variation, these two methods require limited meteorological parameters such as minimum and maximum temperature, radiation. For generating these parameters even at regional level, minimum expenditure is involved. The crop coefficient (Kc) estimated by Hargreaves (Kc 0.90) and the Blaney Criddle (0.87) model for the entire growing season was very much close to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) 56 model, and this can be used for estimating the irrigation requirement of red gram.     

Vertical Flux of Biogenic Carbon in the Ocean: Is There Food Web Control?

Models of biogenic carbon (BC) flux assume that short herbivorous food chains lead to high export, whereas complex microbial or omnivorous food webs lead to recycling and low export, and that export of BC from the euphotic zone equals new production (NP). In the Gulf of St. Lawrence, particulate organic carbon fluxes were similar during the spring phytoplankton bloom, when herbivory dominated, and during nonbloom conditions, when microbial and omnivorous food webs dominated. In contrast, NP was 1.2 to 161 times greater during the bloom than after it. Thus, neither food web structure nor NP can predict the magnitude or patterns of BC export, particularly on time scales over which the ocean is in nonequilibrium conditions.     

The impact of farm management on value of management information systems

The value of management information systems (MISs) arises from improved managerial decision making and, therefore, will vary from farm to farm. Insight into this variation will be of use not only to farmers who consider (new) MIS investments, but also to companies that design and market MISs. In this study, the impact of farm management on the value of sow-herd MISs is investigated. Within the same research population, farm management is assessed with two conceptually different classification approaches — the sociological ‘style of farming’ approach and the farm-economic ‘management level’ approach. Management levels of sow farmers turned out to be positively correlated with MIS value (r=0.35, P=0.02). Although farmers with high management levels tend to be better informed anyway than farmers with low management levels, they get more added value from MISs.     

Identifying and ranking attributes that determine sustainability in Dutch dairy farming

Recent developments in agriculture have stirred up interest in the concept of sustainable farming systems. Still it is difficult to determine the extent to which certain agricultural practices can be considered sustainable or not. Aiming at identifying the necessary attributes with respect to sustainability in Dutch dairy farming in the beginning of the third millennium, we first compiled a list of attributes referring to all farming activities with their related side effects with respect to economic, internal social, external social, and ecological sustainability. A wide range of people (i.e., experts and stakeholders) were consulted to contribute to our list of attributes. Our consultation showed that only one attribute was selected for economic and internal social sustainability: profitability and working conditions, respectively. The list for external social sustainability contained 19 attributes and the list for ecological sustainability contained 15 attributes. To assess their relative importance, the same experts and stakeholders ranked the attributes for external social and ecological sustainability by using a questionnaire. The most important attributes for external social sustainability were food safety, animal health, animal welfare, landscape quality, and cattle grazing. For ecological sustainability they were eutrophication, groundwater pollution, dehydration of the soil, acidification, and biodiversity. The present method for identifying and ranking attributes is universal and, therefore, can be used for other agricultural sectors, for other countries, and for other time periods.Klaas Jan van Calker is a Researcher at the Animal Sciences Group and is doing his PhD research on sustainability of different dairy farming systems in cooperation with Business Economics of Wageningen University.Paul Berentsen is a Lecturer and Researcher at Business Economics, Wageningen University.Gerard Giesen is a Lecturer and Researcher at Business Economics, Wageningen University.Ruud Huirneis the general director of the Animal Sciences Group, and Professor of Farm Management, Wageningen University.     

Impact of different approaches to calculate the economics of disease in pig farming

Diagrams for analyzing the economics of sow and fattening farms are described and discussed. The diagrams are used to quantify the economic significance of a change in technical results for pig farms in the Netherlands. Sensitivity analyses show the importance of taking into account feed savings of piglets and sows due to, for instance, less litters per sow per year. To see whether there was an effect of the economic environment and the structure of the fanning system, the same calculations were carried out for Minnesota (USA). The economic effect of a change in results (e.g. days open) was smaller for Minnesota, but economic effects were similarly influenced by specific factors, such as feed intake and price. Subsequently, several scientific publications on the estimation of the costs of Aujeszky's disease in pigs were compared with respect to the economic methods used and the outcomes obtained. Because of different estimation procedures, the costs of the disease varied significantly. Differences are mainly due to the loss items that were taken into account, the way the loss items were calculated and the structure of the farming system that was included. There is a need for a standardized framework of how to conduct a sound economic evaluation, in order to make the outcome of different calculations more comparable and interpretable.