Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Impact of weather variables and season on sporulation of Phytophthora pluvialis and Phytophthora kernoviae

Phytophthora pluvialis and Phytophthora kernoviae are the causal agents of important needle diseases on Pinus radiata in New Zealand. Little is known about the epidemiology of the diseases, making the development of control strategies challenging. To investigate the seasonality and climatic drivers of sporulation, inoculum traps, consisting of pine fascicles floating on water in plastic containers, were exchanged fortnightly at five sites in P. radiata plantations between February 2012 and December 2014. Sections of needle baits were plated onto selective media and growth of Phytophthora pluvialis and P. kernoviae recorded. To explore the generalizability of these data, they were compared to detection data for both pathogens from the New Zealand Forest Health Database (NZFHDB). Further, equivalent analyses on infection of Rhododendron ponticum by P. kernoviae in Cornwall, UK allowed the comparison of the epidemiology of P. kernoviae across different host systems and environments. In New Zealand, inoculum of P. pluvialis and P. kernoviae was detected between January–December and March–November, respectively. Inoculum of both species peaked in abundance in late winter. The probability of detecting P. pluvialis and P. kernoviae was greater at lower temperatures, while the probability of detecting P. pluvialis also increased during periods of wet weather. Similar patterns were observed in NZFHDB data. However, the seasonal pattern of infection by P. kernoviae in the UK was the opposite of that seen for sporulation in New Zealand. Phytophthora kernoviae was likely limited by warmer and drier summers in New Zealand, but by colder winter weather in the UK. These results emphasize the importance of considering both environmental drivers and thresholds in improving our understanding of pathogen epidemiology.     

Thermal decomposition of protein in soil organic matter

Infrared spectroscopy and nitrogen analyses suggest that secondary amide groups in protein-like components of soil clay-organic complexes and extracted organic matter decompose above 100°C to yield ammonia which is retained as NH₄⁺ by acid-washed clay-organic complexes. Above about 400°C, other volatile nitrogenous decomposition products are released. Clay surfaces in the clay-organic complexes may catalyse the decomposition.     

Virus recognition and pathogenicity: Implications for resistance mechanisms and breeding

The major method of control of virus diseases in crop plants is breeding for resistance. The genetics of resistance, and of matching virulence (the ability of a virus strain to overcome a specific host resistance gene) have been studied less for viruses than for fungal and bacterial pathogens. This paper draws on a survey of the genetics of resistance to a large number of viruses in cultivated crops, and makes some generalisations and predictions about mechanisms. Most resistance to viruses in crops is monogenic. Dominant alleles are associated with virus-localisation mechanisms, which are induced after infection. The nature of the ‘recognition event’ between plant- and virus-coded functions, which triggers resistance plus a cascade of secondary responses, is not yet known. Gene dosage-dependent alleles tend to be associated with non-localising resistance, which allows some virus spread, but inhibits multiplication. Recessive alleles may involve a negative type of resistance mechanism, whereby the resistant plant lacks some function normally required by the virus for pathogenesis. Such resistance tends to be expressed as complete immunity. Many resistance genes have been overcome by virulent isolates of viruses; only 10 % of the sample of resistance genes have proved exceptionally durable. Virulence may involve different viral functions. The production of infectious cDNA clones, and construction of chimaeric recombinants between clones of virulent and avirulent isolates, is now allowing detailed mapping of virulence determinants. Transformation of plants with ‘novel’ genes for virus resistance, based on coat proteins and viral satellites, may allow construction of more robust resistance systems.     

MAGNETIC RESONANCE IMAGING APPEARANCE OF SUSPECTED ISCHEMIC MYELOPATHY IN DOGS

Ischemia and infarction of the spinal cord is a known cause of acute spinal injury in dogs. Currently, the diagnosis of spinal cord infarction in small animals is based on history, clinical signs, and the exclusion of other differentials with radiography and myelography. It is a diagnosis only confirmed through necropsy examination of the spinal cord. The aim of this paper is to describe the Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings of the spinal cord of dogs with suspected spinal cord infarcts to utilize this technology for antemortem support of this diagnosis. This retrospective study evaluated the spinal MR examinations of 11 dogs with acute onset of asymmetric nonpainful myelopathies. All patients except one (imaged at 2 months) were imaged within 1 week of clinical signs and managed conservatively with minimal medical and no surgical intervention. They were followed clinically for a minimum of 4 months after discharge. MR findings in all dogs were characterized by focal, intramedullary, hyperintense lesions on T2-weighted images with variable contrast enhancement similar to what is reported in humans. Though it could not be used to diagnose spinal cord infarction definitively, MRI was useful in excluding extramedullary spinal lesions and supporting intramedullary infarction as a cause of the acute neurologic signs. Together with the history and clinical examination findings, MRI is supportive of a diagnosis of spinal cord infarction.     

Transmission electron microscopy of the vertical crystal layer and cuticle of the eggshell of the domestic fowl

1. Eggshell pieces (1 cm2) were decalcified using a solution of EDTA (200 g/litre, pH 6.9 to 7.0) in paraformaldehyde (2 g/litre) and glutaraldehyde (0.5 g/litre) in phosphate buffer. 2. They were prepared for transmission electron microscopy (TEM). 3. TEM identified a vertically aligned matrix associated with the vertical crystal layer (VCL). It is hypothesised that the vertical orientation of calcite crystals in the VCL is closely linked to this vertical matrix. 4. TEM also revealed the presence of a 2-layered cuticle, the inner layer containing vesicles which were absent in the outer. 5. Cuticular vesicles contain hydroxyapatite and are thought to play a role in the termination of shell formation. The current paper presents data relating to microbial apatitic systems that strengthen this hypothesis.