Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany

We evaluated the economic effects of a predicted shift from Norway spruce (Picea abies (Karst) to European beech (Fagus sylvatica (L) for a forest area of 1.3 million ha in southwest Germany. The shift was modelled with a generalised linear model (GLM) by using presence/absence data from the National Forest Inventory in Baden-Württemberg, a digital elevation model, and regionalised climate parameters from the period 1970 to 2000. Two scenarios from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (B1, A2) for three different time scales (2030, 2065, and 2100) were investigated. The GLM predicted a decrease of the suitable area for growing Norway spruce between 21% (B1, 2030) and 93% (A2, 2100) in comparison to 2000. This corresponds to a reduction in the potential area of Norway spruce from between 190,000 and 860,000 ha. The financial effect of this reduction in area was then evaluated by using a classical Faustmann approach, namely the land expectation value (LEV) as an economic parameter for forests of Norway spruce versus European beech. Underlying cash flows were derived from a distance dependent, single-tree growth simulator (SILVA) based on data for prices and costs of the year 2004. With an interest rate of r = 2%, the predicted loss in the potential area of Norway spruce is related to a decrease of the LEV between 690 million and 3.1 billion Euro. We discuss the sensitivity of these results to changing interest rates, risk levels, and rotation lengths. Results suggest that managing forestland for profitability will be increasingly difficult under both climate scenarios.     

Evaluation of skin sensitivity after shock wave treatment in horses

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of shock wave treatment on cutaneous nerve function, compared with the effects of local nerve block and sedation. ANIMALS: 18 clinically sound Swiss Warmbloods. PROCEDURE: Horses were randomly allocated to 3 groups and received different amounts and types of shock waves (extracorporeal shock wave treatment [ESWT] or radial pressure wave treatment [RPWT]). Horses were sedated with xylazine and levomethadone. Shock waves were applied to the lateral palmar digital nerve at the level of the proximal sesamoid bones on 1 forelimb. Skin sensitivity was evaluated by means of an electrical stimulus at the coronary band before and 5 minutes after sedation and at 4, 24, and 48 hours after application of ESWT or RPWT. On the contralateral forelimb, skin sensitivity was tested before and 10 minutes after an abaxial sesamoid nerve block. RESULTS: No significant changes in skin sensitivity were detected, regardless of the shock wave protocol applied. Mean reaction thresholds after sedation were more than twice the baseline thresholds. After the abaxial sesamoid block, no reaction was recorded in any of the horses. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Application of ESWT or RPWT to the palmar digital nerve had no effect on cutaneous sensation distal to the treated region for at least 2 days after application. The analgesic effect of sedation on reaction to electrical stimuli was distinct but varied among horses.     

An interactive map to assess the potential spread of Lymnaea truncatula and the free-living stages of Fasciola hepatica in Switzerland

The intermediate host of Fasciola hepatica is Lymnaea truncatula in Switzerland. The snail and the free-living stages of the parasite require a moderate climate and moisture for survival, reproduction, and transmission. In Switzerland, these conditions are present in many regions, resulting in a mean prevalence of bovine fasciolosis from 8.4 to 21.4%. An interactive map was created in order to demonstrate the relative risk of transmission by modelling the environmental conditions that promote the survival and reproduction of the larval stages of the parasite and the parasite's intermediate host. The map is based on temperature and rainfall data, soil conditions including ground water and forest cover in Switzerland. Extensive information on the free-living stages of F. hepatica and the intermediate host L. truncatula and how the development of these are affected by these environmental factors was used to create the interactive risk map.     

Analytic validation and comparison of three commercial immunoassays for measurement of plasma atrial/A-type natriuretic peptide concentration in horses

Measurement of atrial/A-type natriuretic peptide (ANP) concentrations may be of use for assessment of cardiac disease, and reliable data on the analytic performance of available assays are needed. To assess the suitability for clinical use of commercially available ANP assays, intra-assay and inter-assay coefficient of variation and dilution parallelism were calculated for three immunoassays (RIA_Pen, RIA_Phoen, and an ELISA_Pen) using blood samples from healthy and diseased horses to cover a wide range of ANP concentrations. Further, agreement between assays was assessed using linear regression and Bland–Altman analyses. For all assays, precision was moderate but acceptable and dilution parallelism was good. All assays showed analytic performance similar to other immunoassays used in veterinary medicine. However, the results from the three assays were poorly comparable. Our study highlights the need for an optimised species-specific assay for equine samples.     

Cross-taxon congruence of species diversity and community similarity among three insect taxa in a mosaic landscape

Surrogate taxa as indicators for biodiversity are widely used in conservation biology and ecology. However, available studies on the congruence of species diversity patterns in different taxa yielded inconsistent results, and correlations between taxa were few. To conserve or restore biodiversity in agricultural landscapes, knowledge on the response of different taxa to management regimes is crucial. In the present study we evaluated the congruence of diversity and similarity patterns among three insect taxa, i.e., bees, grasshoppers, and aculeate wasps, in a mosaic landscape in the Swiss Alps comprising extensively used grassland under different management regimes. In addition, we studied the influence of land use on the diversity and species composition of the three taxa. While species numbers were not significantly correlated between any pair of taxa, community similarities were positively correlated between bees and grasshoppers. The number of red-listed species was not correlated with the total number of species in bees and in grasshoppers. None of the investigated taxa reflected the species numbers or community similarities of the other taxa well enough to qualify as a general indicator for biodiversity. Remarkably, land use clearly influenced species composition, while its effect on species numbers was not significant. All management regimes of the grassland in the study area contribute substantially to the overall diversity of the three insect taxa. Conserving the variety of agricultural land uses will be the most promising step towards the conservation of biodiversity in the study area.     

The influence of mountain pine beetle outbreaks and drought on severe wildfires in northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming: A look at the past century

Outbreaks of bark beetles and drought both lead to concerns about increased fire risk, but the relative importance of these two factors is the subject of much debate. We examined how mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks and drought have contributed to the fire regime of lodgepole pine forests in northwestern Colorado and adjacent areas of southern Wyoming over the past century. We used dendroecological methods to reconstruct the pre-fire history of MPB outbreaks in twenty lodgepole pine stands that had burned between 1939 and 2006 and in 20 nearby lodgepole pine stands that were otherwise similar but that had not burned. Our data represent c. 80% of all large fires that had occurred in lodgepole pine forests in this study area over the past century. We also compared Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and actual evapotranspiration (AET) values between fire years and non-fire years. Burned stands were no more likely to have been affected by outbreak prior to fires than were nearby unburned stands. However, PDSI and AET values were both lower during fire years than during non-fire years. This work indicates that climate has been more important than outbreaks to the fire regime of lodgepole pine forests in this region over the past century. Indeed, we found no detectable increase in the occurrence of high-severity fires following MPB outbreaks. Dry conditions, rather than changes in fuels associated with outbreaks, appear to be most limiting to the occurrence of severe fires in these forests.     

Structural Studies of the Lipopolysaccharide from the Fish Pathogen Aeromonas veronii Strain Bs19, Serotype O16

Chemical analyses, mass spectrometry, and NMR spectroscopy were applied to study the structure of the lipopolysaccharide (LPS) isolated from Aeromonas veronii strain Bs19, serotype O16. ESI-MS revealed that the most abundant LPS glycoforms have tetra-acylated or hexa-acylated lipid A species, consisting of a bisphosphorylated GlcN disaccharide with an AraN residue as a non-stoichiometric substituent, and a core oligosaccharide composed of Hep₅Hex₃HexN₁Kdo₁P₁. Sugar and methylation analysis together with 1D and 2D ¹H and ¹³C NMR spectroscopy were the main methods used, and revealed that the O-specific polysaccharide (OPS) of A. veronii Bs19 was built up of tetrasaccharide repeating units with the structure: →4)-α-d-Quip3NAc-(1→3)-α-l-Rhap-(1→4)-β-d-Galp-(1→3)-α-d-GalpNAc-(1→. This composition was confirmed by mass spectrometry. The charge-deconvoluted ESI FT-ICR MS recorded for the LPS preparations identified mass peaks of SR- and R-form LPS species, that differed by Δm = 698.27 u, a value corresponding to the calculated molecular mass of one OPS repeating unit (6dHexNAc6dHexHexHexNAc-H₂O). Moreover, unspecific fragmentation spectra confirmed the sequence of the sugar residues in the OPS and allowed to assume that the elucidated structure also represented the biological repeating unit.