Bayesian comparison of test-day models under different assumptions of heterogeneity for the residual variance: the change point technique versus arbitrary intervals

Test‐day milk yields from Spanish Holstein cows were analysed with two random regression models based on Legendre polynomials under two different assumptions of heterogeneity of residual variance which aim to describe the variability of temporary measurement errors along days in milk with a reduced number of parameters, such as (i) the change point identification technique with two unknown change points and (ii) using 10 arbitrary intervals of residual variance. Both implementations were based on a previous study where the trajectory of the residual variance was estimated using 30 intervals. The change point technique has been previously implemented in the analysis of the heterogeneity of the residual variance in the Spanish population, yet no comparisons with other methods have been reported so far. This study aims to compare the change point technique identification versus the use of arbitrary intervals as two possible techniques to deal with the characterization of the residual variance in random regression test‐day models. The Bayes factor and the cross‐validation predictive densities were employed for the model assessment. The two model‐selecting tools revealed a strong consistency between them. Both specifications for the residual variance were close to each other. The 10 intervals modelling showed a slightly better performance probably because the change point function overestimates the residual variance values at the very early lactation.     

Caprine toxoplasmosis in Southern Brazil: a comparative seroepidemiological study between the indirect immunofluorescence assay,the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay,and the modified agglutination test

Tropical Animal Health and Production - This study investigated the prevalence of caprine toxoplasmosis in goat herds from Southern Brazil by the indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA), and...     

DC polarography of cephradine and its application to capsules.

A polarographic method has been developed for the quantitative analysis of cephradine and its dosage forms. Direct determinations on capsules are carried out; excipients and coloring matter do not interfere in the determination. The electroactive product is formed by acidic hydrolysis with 5.0N HCl and heating at 80 degrees C for 60 min. Two polarographic waves are obtained: I = -0.46 V and II = -0.78 v vs. SCE. Both reduction waves are diffusion controlled. Wave I is preferred for analytical purposes. The precise chemical identity of the electroactive product has not been determined, but UV spectral data and the TLC Rf value are reported. A linear relation is established for levels of cephradine between 10(-2) and 10(-5)M in 5.0N HCl.     

Confirmation of nitrogen fixation in two tropical grasses by 15N2 incorporation

Intact soil cores containing plants of Paspalum notatum or Digitaria decumbens were selected with the acetylene reduction method, and then exposed to ¹⁵N₁₅ to confirm nitrogen fixation in tropical grass-bacteria associations. In a preliminary experiment with P. notatum¹⁵N₂ incorporation was slow but progressive during 24 h in roots but translocation to rhizomes and leaves ceased after 17h. With improved assay chambers, enrichments of 0.151 and 0.563 ¹⁵N atom % excess were obtained in roots of D. decumbens cv transvala and P. notatum systems respectively, after 3 days. Enrichments in rhizomes were similar to those of roots; however in the leaves only 8% of root enrichment was observed. The addition of sucrose to the soil doubled N₂-fixation in roots in both grass species studied, but did not result in increased incorporation into the leaves of P. notatum.     

Use of real-time PCR to examine the relationship between disease severity in pea and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Aphanomyces euteiches</Emphasis> DNA content in roots

Aphanomyces euteiches causes severe root rot of peas. Resistance is limited in commercial pea cultivars. Real-time fluorescent PCR assay specific for A. euteiches was used to study the relationship between disease severity and pathogen DNA content in infected peas. Five pea genotypes ranging in levels of resistance were inoculated with five isolates of A. euteiches. Plants were visually rated for disease development and the amount of pathogen DNA in roots was determined using the PCR assay. The susceptible genotypes Genie, DSP and Bolero tended to have significantly more disease and more pathogen DNA than the resistant genotypes 90-2079 and PI 180693. PI 180693 consistently had less disease, while 90-2079 had the lowest amount of pathogen DNA. The Spearman correlation between pathogen DNA quantity and disease development was positive and significant (P < 0.05) for three isolates, but was not significant for two other isolates. This suggests that the real-time PCR assay may have limited application as a selection tool for resistance in pea to A. euteiches. Its utility as a selection tool would be dependent on the correlation between disease development and pathogen DNA content for a given pathogen isolate. The accuracy and specificity of the real-time PCR assay suggests considerable application for the assay in the study of mechanisms of disease resistance and the study of microbial population dynamics in plants.     

Capsid protein sequence gene analysis of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Apple mosaic virus</Emphasis> infecting pears

Apple mosaic virus (ApMV, genus Ilarvirus) was detected in pears, a previously non-reported virus host. No symptoms were visible on the hosts leaves. Seventeen out of 22 randomly selected pear trees in Italy (Lombardy) and in three regions in the Czech Republic were ApMV-infected. All nine newly sequenced ApMV isolates from pears had a 15-nucleotide insertion in the capsid protein gene in identical position of that of apple isolates compared with isolates from hop and prunes. The insertion is the most prominent (but not essential) modification of the capsid protein gene, which results in a phylogenetic separation of ApMV isolates into three clusters. Sequence analysis data of an additional 15 isolates revealed a sequence correlation with kernelled fruit trees (apple and pear).     

The use of Verticillium dahliae and Diplodia scrobiculata to induce resistance in Pinus halepensis against Diplodia pinea infection

The pathogenic fungi Verticillium alboatrum and Diplodia scrobiculata were assayed for biological control of Diplodia pinea on Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). Young shoots were pre-treated with inoculations of either V. dahliae or D. scrobiculata, by placing colonized agar plugs on wounds made by removing a single needle fascicle. An inoculation with D. pinea was performed 15 days later. Two months after the shoot inoculations, the canker length on the stems was measured and the percentage of shoot dieback calculated. Verticillium dahliae and D. scrobiculata were found to significantly reduce the canker length of D. pinea (P < 0.05) when compared with positive controls. Diplodia pinea was slightly more sensitive to V. dahliae than to D. scrobiculata, but no significant differences (P > 0.05) were observed in the mean canker length between the two treatments. Trees pre-inoculated with V. dahliae resulted in 31.12% shoot dieback, while those pre-inoculated with D. scrobiculata resulted in 32.18% shoot dieback, compared with positive controls (42.85%).     

Variable response of open-pollinated seedling progeny of avocado to Phytophthora root rot

Phytophthora root rot, caused byPhytophthora cinnamomi Rands, is the most important disease of avocado (Persea americana Miller). In an attempt to identify root rot-resistant rootstocks that could ultimately be used under conditions in southern Florida, we screened open-pollinated progeny of avocado from the National Germplasm Repository in Miami. From 1996 to 1998, a total of 2,355 seedlings from 51 accessions were examined in potting mix artificially infested withP. cinnamomi. Most seedlings developed severe root rot, but tolerance was observed in some families (i.e., progeny of certain accessions). Although the most susceptible families developed mean disease ratings of up to 97% root necrosis, mean ratings for the most tolerant families were less than 60%. There was also a strong relationship between the racial background of the female parent and the tolerance of seedlings. Seedlings of the West Indian race and hybrids between it and the Guatemalan race were significantly more tolerant than those from other parents (P< 0.05). Individuals in several families developed < 50% root necrosis, the arbitrary standard of tolerance in this study. Twelve families accounted for 82% (188 of 229) of the tolerant seedlings, and only two of these did not have a West Indian or Guatemalan × West Indian pedigree. Broad-sense heritability for PRR tolerance was 0.45. This is the first report on the inheritance of PRR tolerance in avocado and on the influence of genotype and racial pedigree under controlled conditions.     

Challenges in developing and implementing a decision support systems (ETÇAP) in forest management planning: a case study in Honaz and Ibradı, Turkey

Decision support systems (DSSs) are indispensable tools in preparing a forest management plan for a better combination of multiple forest values. This study attempted to develop and explain a stand-based forest management DSS (Ecosystem-based multiple-use forest planning [ETÇAP]) comprising a traditional simulation, linear programming (LP), metaheuristics and geographic information system. The model consists of five submodels; traditional management approach to handle inventory data, an empirical growth and yield model, a simulation to conceptualize management actions, a LP technique to optimize resource allocation and a simulated annealing approach to directly create a spatially feasible harvest schedule. The ETÇAP model has been implemented in a comparative two case study areas; Denizli–Honaz and Akseki–Ibrad?. Both simulation and optimization models outperformed to the traditional management plan. The periodical change of growing stock, allowable cuts, carbon sequestration and water production are used as performance indicators. The results showed that more amount of wood could be harvested over time compared to traditional level of harvesting. It could be concluded that various management strategies allowed managers to stimulate more decision options for better outputs through intertemporal trade-offs of management interventions as the model provided tools to quantify forest dynamics over time and space. Challenges exist to establish the functional relationships between forest structure and values for better quantification and integration into the management plans.