Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Postharvest UV-C treatment combined with 1-methylcyclopropene (1-MCP), followed by storage in continuous low-level ethylene atmosphere,improves the quality of tomatoes

Mature green tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicum L. cv Neang Pich) were exposed to 13.6 kJ m^?2 UV-C or 0.5 μL L^?1 1-MCP or combination of 13.6 kJ m^?2 UV-C and 0.5 μL L^?1 1-MCP, with appropriate untreated controls. After treatment, tomatoes were stored in air containing 0.1 μL L^?1 ethylene at 20°C and 100% RH. The untreated fruit ripened significantly faster than those of all other treatments. UV-C treatment alone was able to delay fruit ripening by up to 5 days longer compared to untreated fruits whilst the additional of 1-MCP further delayed fruit ripening. UV-C and 1-MCP treatments alone or in combination had significantly slower ethylene production rates throughout the storage period. The fruit treated with the combination of 1-MCP and UV-C was significantly firmer and had higher total phenolic content compared to that of the other treatments. However, there was no difference between treatments in soluble solids content/titratable acids ratio, chlorophyll content, lycopene content and total antioxidant activity. These results show that UV-C and 1-MCP treatment delay ripening and improve the quality of tomatoes in the presence of low-level ethylene during storage. This new treatment could be used to extend the shelf-life of mature green tomatoes through the supply chain without the use of refrigeration.     

Identifying and exploring significant genomic regions associated with soybean yield,seed fatty acids,protein and oil

Soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] yield and seed fatty acids, protein, and oil content are important traits for which an improved understanding of significant genomic regions would be useful. To accomplish this, a soybean population consisting of 203 F5 derived recombinant inbred lines (RILs) was developed and genotyped with 11,633 polymorphic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Each RIL was grown in a single plot at Knoxville, TN in 2010; followed by replicated, multi-location field trials in 2013 and 2014. The data from 2010, 2013, and 2014 were analyzed together in order to detect quantitative trait loci (QTL) for these traits, and 30 total QTLs were detected. Five QTLs are candidates for confirmed status and one QTL is a candidate for positional confirmation. Many of the genes with mutations in close proximity to the fatty acid QTLs are involved in biological processes for fatty acids and/or lipids and could be considered possible candidate genes. Similarly, genes with mutations in genomic regions near yield, protein, and oil QTLs were plentiful and may contribute to the variation observed in these traits. Except for yield and stearic acid, each trait displayed pleiotropic effects with other traits in this study. Notable are the pleiotropic effects for oleic and linolenic acid on chromosomes 9, 13, and 19. Overall, the findings from this research contribute new information to the genetic understanding of soybean yield and seed fatty acids, protein and oil content. This understanding will be useful in making trait improvements.     

Linking mesoscale landscape heterogeneity and biodiversity: gardens and tree cover significantly modify flower-visiting beetle communities

Landscape Ecology - Maintaining biodiversity in multifunction landscapes is a significant challenge. Planning for the impacts of change requires knowledge of how species respond to landscape...     

Impact of cash crop cultivation on household income and migration decisions: Evidence from low-income regions in China

This study examines the impact of cash crop cultivation on household income and migration decisions, using survey data collected from low-income regions in China. Given farmers decide themselves whether to cultivate cash crops, an endogenous treatment regression model that accounts for potential selection bias issue is used to analyze the data. The empirical results show that cash crop cultivation exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on household income, but it does not affect household migration decisions significantly. The disaggregated analyses reveal that cash crop cultivation significantly increases farm income but decreases off-farm income.     

Planktonic foraminifera of the California Current reflect 20th-century warming

It is currently unclear whether observed pelagic ecosystem responses to ocean warming, such as a mid-1970s change in the eastern North Pacific, depart from typical ocean variability. We report variations in planktonic foraminifera from varved sediments off southern California spanning the past 1400 years. Increasing abundances of tropical/subtropical species throughout the 20th century reflect a warming trend superimposed on decadal-scale fluctuations. Decreasing abundances of temperate/subpolar species in the late 20th century indicate a deep, penetrative warming not observed in previous centuries. These results imply that 20th-century warming, apparently anthropogenic, has already affected lower trophic levels of the California Current.     

Observed flow compensation associated with the MOC at 26.5 degrees N in the Atlantic

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which provides one-quarter of the global meridional heat transport, is composed of a number of separate flow components. How changes in the strength of each of those components may affect that of the others has been unclear because of a lack of adequate data. We continuously observed the MOC at 26.5 degrees N for 1 year using end-point measurements of density, bottom pressure, and ocean currents; cable measurements across the Straits of Florida; and wind stress. The different transport components largely compensate for each other, thus confirming the validity of our monitoring approach. The MOC varied over the period of observation by +/-5.7 x 10(6) cubic meters per second, with density-inferred and wind-driven transports contributing equally to it. We find evidence for depth-independent compensation for the wind-driven surface flow.     

Changes in selected stress and immune‐related genes in Atlantic cod,Gadus morhua,following overcrowding

Using Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, as a model for the stress response in gadoid fish, the changes in the expression of some stress and immune genes as well as the profiles of plasma cortisol were examined. Adult fish were kept at a density of ca. 100 kg m^?3 by lowering the water level in the rearing tank for 1 h and this short‐term crowding stress was repeated thrice over a 12‐h interval period. Blood samples were collected before exposure and at 2, 24 and 72 h post crowding. Plasma cortisol level significantly increased at 2 h post crowding but returned to pre‐crowding levels 24 h after exposure. The relative expression of the stress response genes, glucose transporter‐3 and a putative heat shock protein 70 significantly increased at 2 and 24 h post crowding respectively. Significant up‐regulation of the pro‐inflammatory cytokines, interleukin (IL)‐1β and IL‐8, as well as anti‐bacterial genes, g‐type lysozyme and bactericidal permeability‐increasing protein/lipopolysaccharide‐binding protein (BPI/LBP) was also observed at 2 h and the levels were maintained until 72 h post exposure, except for BPI/LBP which had maximum up‐regulation at 24 h. The present observations have implications with respect to fish welfare and assessment of the health status of the farmed fish.     

Intake and discharge nutrient loads at three intensive shrimp farms

This study was conducted to help provide a framework for Australian regulation of shrimp farm siting and discharges. Monitoring of farm water usage, and intake and discharge water quality was conducted at three commercial intensive shrimp farms, chosen to represent different operating environments, latitudes, cultured species and management styles. Weekly samples were taken over 3 years, for 3–12 months at each farm, to investigate intake and discharge concentrations and loads of total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP). Mean water exchange was 1.4 ML ha^?1 day^?1 (about 10% day^?1) at the first farm studied and 0.5 ML ha^?1 day^?1 (about 3.6% day^?1) at the others. Farm mean discharge concentration varied as follows: TSS, from 36.9 to 119 mg L^?1; TN, from 2.1 to 3.1 mg L^?1 and TP, from 0.22 to 0.28 mg L^?1. Farm mean intake concentrations were from 11% to 91% of equivalent mean discharge concentration (for TN at Farm B and TSS at Farm C respectively). Mean net discharge loads, related to area of production ponds at each farm, varied as follows: TSS, from 4.8 to 85.7 kg ha^?1 day^?1; TN, from 1 to 1.8 kg ha^?1 day^?1 and TP, from 0.11 to 0.22 kg ha^?1 day^?1. The highest net loads of TSS, TN and TP were all from the farm with the highest water exchange rate, located on a coastal river, and studied during a year of high rainfall with associated poor water quality. These results can be used to help predict likely discharge characteristics for new shrimp farms, and provide a benchmark against which to evaluate future improvements in shrimp farm environmental management.