Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Postharvest UV-C treatment combined with 1-methylcyclopropene (1-MCP), followed by storage in continuous low-level ethylene atmosphere,improves the quality of tomatoes

Mature green tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicum L. cv Neang Pich) were exposed to 13.6 kJ m^?2 UV-C or 0.5 μL L^?1 1-MCP or combination of 13.6 kJ m^?2 UV-C and 0.5 μL L^?1 1-MCP, with appropriate untreated controls. After treatment, tomatoes were stored in air containing 0.1 μL L^?1 ethylene at 20°C and 100% RH. The untreated fruit ripened significantly faster than those of all other treatments. UV-C treatment alone was able to delay fruit ripening by up to 5 days longer compared to untreated fruits whilst the additional of 1-MCP further delayed fruit ripening. UV-C and 1-MCP treatments alone or in combination had significantly slower ethylene production rates throughout the storage period. The fruit treated with the combination of 1-MCP and UV-C was significantly firmer and had higher total phenolic content compared to that of the other treatments. However, there was no difference between treatments in soluble solids content/titratable acids ratio, chlorophyll content, lycopene content and total antioxidant activity. These results show that UV-C and 1-MCP treatment delay ripening and improve the quality of tomatoes in the presence of low-level ethylene during storage. This new treatment could be used to extend the shelf-life of mature green tomatoes through the supply chain without the use of refrigeration.     

Identifying and exploring significant genomic regions associated with soybean yield,seed fatty acids,protein and oil

Soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] yield and seed fatty acids, protein, and oil content are important traits for which an improved understanding of significant genomic regions would be useful. To accomplish this, a soybean population consisting of 203 F5 derived recombinant inbred lines (RILs) was developed and genotyped with 11,633 polymorphic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Each RIL was grown in a single plot at Knoxville, TN in 2010; followed by replicated, multi-location field trials in 2013 and 2014. The data from 2010, 2013, and 2014 were analyzed together in order to detect quantitative trait loci (QTL) for these traits, and 30 total QTLs were detected. Five QTLs are candidates for confirmed status and one QTL is a candidate for positional confirmation. Many of the genes with mutations in close proximity to the fatty acid QTLs are involved in biological processes for fatty acids and/or lipids and could be considered possible candidate genes. Similarly, genes with mutations in genomic regions near yield, protein, and oil QTLs were plentiful and may contribute to the variation observed in these traits. Except for yield and stearic acid, each trait displayed pleiotropic effects with other traits in this study. Notable are the pleiotropic effects for oleic and linolenic acid on chromosomes 9, 13, and 19. Overall, the findings from this research contribute new information to the genetic understanding of soybean yield and seed fatty acids, protein and oil content. This understanding will be useful in making trait improvements.     

Linking mesoscale landscape heterogeneity and biodiversity: gardens and tree cover significantly modify flower-visiting beetle communities

Landscape Ecology - Maintaining biodiversity in multifunction landscapes is a significant challenge. Planning for the impacts of change requires knowledge of how species respond to landscape...     

Soil Ca, Al, acidity and penetration resistance with subsoiling, lime and gypsum treatments

Abstract. Crop growth on strongly weathered soils is often limited by soil compaction in addition to aluminium toxicity and/or calcium deficiency. This study examines the effects of subsoiling, lime and gypsum on penetrometer resistance, acidity, aluminium and calcium levels and cotton ( Gossypium hirsutum L.) root growth on soils transitional between Cecil and Appling series (clayey, kaolinitic, thermic Typic Hapludults) in the Piedmont region of Georgia, USA. The main plots were subsoiled to depths of 0.35 or 0.80 m or untreated. Dolomitic limestone (0 or 4.03 t per hectare on subplots) and phosphogypsum (0 or 10 t per hectare on sub-subplots) were incorporated into the surface soil (0.15 m). Deep subsoiling (0.80 m depth) decreased penetrometer resistance at 0.3–0.5 m depth and increased yield in two of three years, but there was no response to shallow subsoiling (0.35 m depth). Lime increased yield when surface soil water pH prior to amendment was less than a Cate-Nelson critical value of 4.6. Gypsum moved downward much more rapidly than lime, increasing soil solution calcium ion activity to a depth of 0.8 m within 5 months of application. There were differences in clay content between replicate plots and calcium movement was faster where the clay content was less. Yield responses to gypsum in 1986 were attributed to increased root growth below 0.2 m resulting from the increased calcium ion activity. Yield response to gypsum in limed sub-subplots was significant only in 1986.     

Chemical comparison of goldenseal (Hydrastis canadensis L.) root powder from three commercial suppliers

The characterization of herbal materials is a significant challenge to analytical chemists. Goldenseal (Hydrastis canadensis L.), which has been chosen for toxicity evaluation by NIEHS, is among the top 15 herbal supplements currently on the market and contains a complex mixture of indigenous components ranging from carbohydrates and amino acids to isoquinoline alkaloids. One key component of herbal supplement production is botanical authentication, which is also recommended prior to initiation of efficacy or toxicological studies. To evaluate material available to consumers, goldenseal root powder was obtained from three commercial suppliers and a strategy was developed for characterization and comparison that included Soxhlet extraction, HPLC, GC-MS, and LC-MS analyses. HPLC was used to determine the weight percentages of the goldenseal alkaloids berberine, hydrastine, and canadine in the various extract residues. Palmatine, an isoquinoline alkaloid native to Coptis spp. and other common goldenseal adulterants, was also quantitated using HPLC. GC-MS was used to identify non-alkaloid constituents in goldenseal root powder, whereas LC-MS was used to identify alkaloid components. After review of the characterization data, it was determined that alkaloid content was the best biomarker for goldenseal. A 20-min ambient extraction method for the determination of alkaloid content was also developed and used to analyze the commercial material. All three lots of purchased material contained goldenseal alkaloids hydrastinine, berberastine, tetrahydroberberastine, canadaline, berberine, hydrastine, and canadine. Material from a single supplier also contained palmatine, coptisine, and jatrorrhizine, thus indicating that the material was not pure goldenseal. Comparative data for three commercial sources of goldenseal root powder are presented.     

Survival of bacterial DNA and culturable bacteria in archived soils from the Rothamsted Broadbalk experiment

Dried soil samples from many sources have been stored in archives world-wide over the years, but there has been little research on their value for studying microbial populations. Samples collected since 1843 from the Broadbalk field experiment on crop nutrition at Rothamsted have been used to document changes in the structure and composition of soils as agricultural practices evolve, also offering an invaluable record of environmental changes from the pre- to post-industrial era in the UK. To date, the microbial communities of these soils have not been studied, in part due to the well-documented drop in bacterial culturability in dried soils. However, modern molecular methods based on PCR amplification of DNA extracted directly from soil do not require bacterial cells to be viable or intact and may allow investigations into the legacy of bacteria that were present at the time of sample collection.

In a preliminary study, to establish if dried soils can provide a historical record of bacterial communities, samples from the Broadbalk soil archive dating back to 1868 were investigated and plots treated with either farmyard manure (FYM) or inorganic fertilizer (NPK) were compared. As anticipated, the processes of air-drying and milling greatly reduced bacterial viability whilst DNA yields declined less and may be preserved by desiccation. A higher proportion of culturable bacteria survived the archiving process in the FYM soil, possibly protected by the increased soil organic matter. The majority of surviving bacteria were firmicutes, whether collected in 2003 or in 1914, but a wide range of genera was detected in DNA extracted from the samples using PCR and DGGE of 16S rRNA genes. Analysis of DGGE band profiles indicated that the two plots maintained divergent populations. Sequence analysis of bands excised from DGGE gels, from a sample collected in 1914, revealed DNA from - and β-proteobacteria as well as firmicutes. PCR using primers specific for ammonia oxidizing bacteria showed similar band profiles across the two treatments in recently collected samples, however older samples from the NPK plot showed greater divergence. Primers specific for the genus Pseudomonas were designed and used in real-time quantitative PCR to indicate that archived soil collected in 1868 contained 10-fold less pseudomonad DNA than fresh soil, representing around 10⁵ genomes g⁻¹ soil. Prior to milling, dramatically less pseudomonad DNA was extracted from recently collected air-dried soil from the NPK compared to the FYM plot; otherwise, the two plots followed similar trends. Overall bacterial abundance, diversity and survival during the archiving process differed in the two soils, possibly due to differences in clay and soil organic matter content. Nevertheless, the results demonstrate that air-dried soils can protect microbial DNA for more than 150 years and offer an invaluable resource for future research.     

Management strategies for forage rape (Brassica napus L. cv Goliath): Impact on dry-matter yield,plant reserves,morphology and nutritive value

Limited information is available on the grazing management principles of forage rape (Brassica napus L.), particularly in relation to grazing height and intensity and the impact of these on dry-matter (DM) yield and nutritive value. A glasshouse study was undertaken to investigate the effect of three defoliation heights (plant height at harvest; DH: 40, 70 and 90 cm; L, M and H DH respectively) and three defoliation intensities (height at which plants were cut; DI: 5, 20 and 35 cm of residual height; H, M and L DI respectively) on forage rape (cv Goliath) yield and nutritive value at two harvests (harvest 1, H1 and harvest 2, H2), and the impact of nitrogen (N) and water soluble carbohydrate (WSC) reserves on regrowth. Increasing DH from L to H increased estimated total DM yield (H1 plus H2) from 0.5 to 4.6 t DM/ha but DI did not affect yield. Dry-matter yield was optimized at 90 cm DH, but greater nutritive value was achieved by harvesting at lower levels of DH. Despite high in vitro DM digestibility (IVDMD; 852–889 g/kg), harvesting at 90 cm DH could not meet the protein requirement of lactating dairy cows and harvesting at lower levels risks nitrate poisoning. Our results indicate the optimum DH may be between 70 and 90 cm DH, and 20 and 35 cm DI, which requires further studies.