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91.
OBJECTIVE: To create a stochastic model to quantify the risk that shipments of cattle from regions within the United States would contain animals seropositive for bluetongue virus and to determine shipment-level accuracy of serologic testing by use of a competitive ELISA (c-ELISA). SAMPLE POPULATION: 19,216 shipments containing 528,918 cattle and calves. PROCEDURE: Data were obtained on number of animals and state of origin of cattle in export shipments originating within the United States between January 1994 and March 2002. Probability distributions for size of export shipments were determined for all states within the United States, and distributions for agar gel immunodiffusion and c-ELISA accuracy (sensitivity and specificity) were determined from expert opinion and review of the literature. The model simulated selection of a shipment and then determined the probability that a threshold number or percentage of cattle within that shipment would have a positive c-ELISA result. Shipment-level sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive value, and negative-predictive value were calculated. RESULTS: Substantial differences were evident in the regional probability of a shipment being declared positive, with shipments from northeastern states having the lowest probability and shipments from southwestern states having the highest probability. The c-ELISA had variable predictive values at the shipment level, depending on the threshold used and the prevalence of antibody-positive cattle within the region. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results from this study will aid importers in making scientifically based decisions regarding risk of importing antibody-positive cattle.  相似文献   
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1. A readily identifiable strain of Escherichia coli K12 was used as a 'marker' organism to determine the sources, routes and patterns of microbial cross-contamination during mechanical defeathering of broiler chicken carcases. 2. Inoculation of scald water with the marker organism led to a relatively even pattern of carcase contamination during subsequent defeathering. Microbial cross-contamination was greater by this route of inoculation than by either surface inoculation of a 'seeder' carcase or oral inoculation of a live bird one day before slaughter. 3. Dispersal of the marker organism was strongly influenced by the mechanical action of the defeathering machines. Forward transmission of the marker occurred by aerosol or large airborne droplets and particulates such as feathers. Moving carcases through the defeathering machines when these were non-operational clearly reduced backward transmission of the marker. 4. Although microbial dispersal was unaffected by increasing the spacing between individual carcases or installing a water curtain at the entry and exit of the defeathering machines, shielding of carcases with aluminium baffles reduced counts of the marker organism from contaminated carcases by > 90%. 5. The results imply that microbial cross-contamination of broiler chicken carcases during defeathering occurs mainly via the airborne route, which could be contained by physical means.  相似文献   
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Diagnosis of avian mycobacteriosis, caused by Mycobacterium genavense or species belonging to the Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC), is problematic. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) offers rapid and sensitive detection of minute quantities of DNA, and conventional protocols have been used for evaluating avian specimens. The recent development of real-time PCR offers several advantages over conventional PCR. In attempts to improve diagnosing avian mycobacteriosis, a real-time TaqMan PCR assay was developed targeting the 65-kD heat shock protein gene of M. genavense and MAC spp. Nineteen reference isolates, 16 clinical isolates, and 32 avian tissue samples were used to evaluate the assay. When sufficient amplicons were produced, the species of mycobacteria was determined by standard sequencing of TaqMan PCR products and compared with results from commercial mycobacteriology laboratories and/or standard sequencing of conventional PCR products. The TaqMan PCR detected DNA from reference isolates of M. genavense, MAC spp., and Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex spp. Of the clinical isolates, the TaqMan PCR detected DNA from 10 of 12 Mycobacterium avium avium isolates and two of three Mycobacterium avium intracellulare isolates. For the tissue samples, the TaqMan PCR amplified DNA in six of nine samples that were identified by sequencing of conventional PCR products and/or by commercial mycobacteriology laboratories as being MAC spp. positive and three of four samples that were positive for M. genavense. There was some disagreement between speciation results from the TaqMan PCR and those from commercial mycobacteriology laboratories or conventional PCR or both. This disagreement was suspected to be because of relatively small numbers of base pairs in the TaqMan PCR products. The TaqMan PCR may provide a useful tool for evaluating clinical samples for DNA from mycobacteria species that most commonly infect birds; however, further refinement is needed in order to improve sensitivity and provide more accurate speciation.  相似文献   
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