Atmospheric science. Weather forecasting with ensemble methods

Traditional weather forecasting has been built on a foundation of deterministic modeling--start with initial conditions, put them into a supercomputer model, and end up with a prediction about future weather. But as Gneiting and Raftery discuss in their Perspective, a new approach--ensemble forecasting--was introduced in the early 1990s. In this method, up to 100 different computer runs, each with slightly different starting conditions or model assumptions, are combined into a weather forecast. In concert with statistical techniques, ensembles can provide accurate statements about the uncertainty in daily and seasonal forecasting. The challenge now is to improve the modeling, statistical analysis, and visualization technologies for disseminating the ensemble results.     

Changes in total, mineralizable and light fraction soil organic matter with cropping and tillage intensities in semiarid southern Alberta, Canada

There has been a trend toward increased cropping intensity and decreased tillage intensity in the semiarid region of the Canadian prairies. The impact of these changes on sequestration of atmospheric CO₂ in soil organic carbon (C) is uncertain. Our objective was to quantify the changes in total, mineralizable and light fraction organic C and nitrogen (N) due to the adoption of continuous cropping and conservation tillage practices. We sampled three individual long-term experiments at Lethbridge, Alberta, in September 1992: a spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-fallow tillage study, a continuous spring wheat tillage study and a winter wheat rotation-tillage study. Treatments had been in place for 3–16 years. In the spring wheat-fallow study, different intensities (one-way disc > heavy-duty cultivator > blade cultivator) of conventional tillage (CT) were compared with minimum tillage (MT) and zero tillage (ZT). After 16 years, total organic C was 2.2 Mg ha⁻¹ lower in more intensively worked CT treatments (one-way disc, heavy-duty cultivator) than in the least-intensive CT treatment (blade cultivator). The CT with the blade cultivator and ZT treatments had similar levels of organic C. The CT treatments with the one-way disc and heavy-duty cultivator had light fraction C and N and mineralizable N amounts that were about 13–18% lower than the CT with the blade cultivator, MT or ZT treatments. In the continuous spring wheat study, 8 years of ZT increased total organic C by 2 Mg ha⁻¹, and increased mineralizable and light fraction C and N by 15–27%, compared with CT with a heavy-duty cultivator prior to planting. In the winter wheat rotation-tillage study, total organic C was 2 Mg ha⁻¹ higher in a continuous winter wheat (WW) rotation compared with that in a winter wheat-fallow rotation. The lack of an organic C response to ZT on the WW rotation may have been due to moldboard plowing of the ZT treatment in 1989 (6 years after establishment and 3 years before soil sampling), in an effort to control a severe infestation of downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.). Our results suggest that although relative increases in soil organic matter were small, increases due to adoption of ZT were greater and occurred much faster in continuously cropped than in fallow-based rotations. Hence intensification of cropping practices, by elimination of fallow and moving toward continuous cropping, is the first step toward increased C sequestration. Reducing tillage intensity, by the adoption of ZT, enhances the cropping intensity effect.     

BALLOON DILATATION OF NASOPHARYNGEAL STENOSIS IN A CAT

A cat was diagnosed with nasopharyngeal stenosis on the basis of clinical signs, survey and contrast radiography, endoscopy and magnetic resonance imaging. The condition was successfully managed with repeated balloon dilatation.     

Soil phosphorus and water effects on growth,nutrient and carbohydrate concentrations, δ<Superscript>13</Superscript>C,and nodulation of mimosa (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Albizia julibrissin</Emphasis> Durz.) on a highly weathered soil

Growth and physiological performance of multipurpose tree species can be severely constrained by low phosphorus (P) availability in highly weathered soils. Limitations to plant growth are accentuated by seasonal dry periods. The overall objective of this study was to examine P fertilization and irrigation effects on survival, growth, biomass partitioning, foliar nutrients, intrinsic water-use efficiency (WUE) indexed by δ¹³C, Rhizobium nodulation, and carbohydrate content as an indicator of resprouting potential, of mimosa (Albizia julibrissin Durz.), a N₂-fixing tree species being tested for browse in agroforestry practices in south-central USA. In a field experiment carried out during two growing seasons near Booneville, Arkansas, USA, mimosa had a strong growth response to irrigation. The trial was arranged in a split plot design with three replications with irrigation as main plot treatment and P as sub-plot treatment. Mean total plant aboveground biomass at the end of the second growing season was 9.8 and 44.1 g plant⁻¹ for the rainfed treatment without and with 300 mm of irrigation water, respectively. Placed P fertilization increased mean total aboveground biomass from 19 g plant⁻¹ for the 0-P treatment to 69 g plant⁻¹ for the treatment with 90 kg P ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. Similarly, irrigation consistently increased stem basal diameter, total height, survival, root, stem, foliar and total aboveground biomass, and number of nodules per plant. Phosphorus fertilization increased basal diameter, and root and stem biomass in both irrigation treatments, survival and nodulation in the rainfed treatment, and foliar and total aboveground biomass in the rainfed +300 mm irrigation treatment. There was a decrease of foliar δ¹³C suggesting that WUE decreased with P fertilization. In a pot experiment, seedlings were subjected to a factorial combination of two irrigation treatments and six P levels in a randomized complete block design. Irrigation increased basal diameter, root, stem, foliar and total biomass, leaf area and nodulation, whereas P fertilization (i.e., levels from 0 to 3.68 g P kg⁻¹ soil) had similar effect in all the above variables except foliar biomass. Foliar P concentration to obtain 90% of the maximum total plant biomass (critical level) was estimated at 0.157%. Total nonstructural and water soluble carbohydrate, and starch concentrations increased non-linearly with irrigation and P addition suggesting impaired re-growth potential after defoliation of seedlings with reduced water supply and at low soil P availability. Results of this study indicated strong limitations for growth and regrowth potential of mimosa on a highly weathered soil with very low P availability and seasonal water content shortages. Placed (i.e., near the plant base) application of P appeared to be a good strategy to fertilize perennial woody plants.     

African swine fever among slaughter pigs in Mubende district, Uganda

Owing to frequent reports of suspected outbreaks and the presence of reservoir hosts and vectors (warthogs, bushpigs and O. moubata ticks), African swine fever (ASF) is believed to be an endemic disease in Uganda. There have, however, been very few studies carried out to confirm its existence in Uganda. This study was carried out to describe the prevalence of ASF based on pathologic lesions and analysis of serum samples from slaughtered pigs during a suspected outbreak in the Mubende district of Uganda. The study was based on visits to 22 slaughterhouses where individual pigs were randomly selected for a detailed ante-mortem and post-mortem inspections. Sera were also collected for laboratory analysis. A total of 997 pigs (53.7% male and 46.3% female) were examined for lesions suggestive of ASF and sero-positivity of sera for ASF antibodies. The sera were tested using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and positive samples were further confirmed with an immunoblot assay. The results showed that 3.8% (38/997) of the pigs examined had clinical signs and post-mortem lesions suggestive of ASF. Two of 997 (0.2%) sera analysed were positive for ASF antibodies. Of the sub-counties investigated, Bagezza (12%) and Kiyuni (11%) had the highest prevalence of lesions suggestive of ASF based on ante- and post-mortem examination results, while Mubende town council (1.7%) had the lowest. This study found a low number of pigs (3.8%) with lesions suggestive of ASF at slaughter and an even lower number of pigs (0.2%) that were seropositive at slaughter, however a significantly higher number of pigs were slaughtered during the outbreak as a strategy for farmers to avoid losses associated with mortality.