Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

A comparison of popular approaches to optimize landscape resistance surfaces

Landscape Ecology - Landscape resistance surfaces are often used to address questions related to movement, dispersal, or population connectivity. However, modeling landscape resistance is...     

Response of alluvial fan systems to the late Pleistocene to Holocene climatic transition: contrasts between the margins of pluvial Lakes Lahontan and Mojave, Nevada and California, USA

Dated shorelines of late Pleistocene pluvial Lakes Lahontan (Great Basin Desert, northwest Nevada) and Mojave (Mojave Desert, eastern California) provide timelines for the assessment of alluvial fan sedimentation at the lake margins during the late Pleistocene to early Holocene. Two sets of alluvial fan systems have been mapped: the Stillwater fans, feeding Lake Lahontan; and the Zzyzx fans, feeding Lake Mojave. Their contrasting morphologies suggest different responses of the two fan systems to late Pleistocene to early Holocene climatic change. At the time the Stillwater fan systems underwent minimal sedimentation, with the catchment hillslopes apparently stable. The Zzyzx fans experienced major changes in water and sediment supply from the catchment hillslopes. There was a major phase of hillslope debris-flow activity, followed by fanhead trenching and distal fan progradation. Both areas were wetter and colder in the late Pleistocene than they are today, but during the transition to the Holocene the Zzyzx area was more likely to experience intense rains associated with the monsoonal penetration of warm moist tropical air into the Southwest. Vegetation reconstructions for the late Pleistocene to the early Holocene suggest that catchment hillslopes in the Mojave supported a desert shrub vegetation, but those in the Stillwaters supported juniper woodland and grasses at low elevations and pine at higher elevations. Contrasts in hillslope vegetation cover together with storm activity may account for the different responses of the alluvial fans to climatic change during the Pleistocene to Holocene climatic transition. After the falls in lake levels of Lakes Lahontan and Mojave in the early Holocene, both areas underwent aridification, resulting in reductions in hillslope vegetation cover. Increased storm runoff led to fanhead trenching and distal progradation of the alluvial fans. Variations in fan style at that time may relate primarily to base-level conditions resulting from different gradients on the exposed lake shores.     

Do frugivorous birds assist rainforest succession in weed dominated oldfield regrowth of subtropical Australia?

Exotic plants often form the first woody vegetation that grows on abandoned farmland. If this vegetation attracts vertebrate frugivores which disperse the seeds of native plants, then native plants may recruit to such oldfield sites. However, there is debate about the extent to which exotic vegetation assists or suppresses the regeneration of native plants, and about its effects on faunal biodiversity. These issues were investigated in subtropical eastern Australia, where rainforests were cleared for agriculture in the 19th century, and where regrowth dominated by camphor laurel (Cinnamomum camphora, an exotic, fleshy-fruited tree) has become common on former agricultural land. The study assessed the assemblages of frugivorous birds, and the recruitment of rainforest plants, at 24 patches of camphor laurel regrowth. The patches were used by nearly all frugivorous birds associated with subtropical rainforest. Many of these birds (16 of 34 species) are considered to have a medium to high potential to disperse the seeds of rainforest plants, and eight of these were abundant and widespread in regrowth patches. Of 208 recorded plant species, 181 were native to local rainforest. The ratio of native to exotic species was higher amongst tree recruits than adult trees, both for numbers of species and individuals. Among native tree recruits, 79% of 75 species, and 93% of 1928 individuals, were potentially dispersed by birds. These recruits included many late-successional species, and there were relatively more individuals of late-successional, bird-dispersed native species amongst recruits than adult trees. The species richness, but not the abundance, of both frugivorous birds and of bird-dispersed rainforest trees decreased with distance from major rainforest remnants. Camphor laurel regrowth provides habitat for rainforest birds and creates conditions suitable for the regeneration of native rainforest plants on abandoned farmland. Careful management of regrowth dominated by fleshy-fruited exotic invasive trees can provide an opportunity for broadscale reforestation in extensively-cleared landscapes.     

C and N natural abundance of the soil microbial biomass

Stable isotope analysis is a powerful tool in the study of soil organic matter formation. It is often observed that more decomposed soil organic matter is ¹³C, and especially ¹⁵N-enriched relative to fresh litter and recent organic matter. We investigated whether this shift in isotope composition relates to the isotope composition of the microbial biomass, an important source for soil organic matter. We developed a new approach to determine the natural abundance C and N isotope composition of the microbial biomass across a broad range of soil types, vegetation, and climates. We found consistently that the soil microbial biomass was ¹⁵N-enriched relative to the total (3.2 ‰) and extractable N pools (3.7 ‰), and ¹³C-enriched relative to the extractable C pool (2.5 ‰). The microbial biomass was also ¹³C-enriched relative to total C for soils that exhibited a C3-plant signature (1.6 ‰), but ¹³C-depleted for soils with a C4 signature (−1.1 ‰). The latter was probably associated with an increase of annual C3 forbs in C4 grasslands after an extreme drought. These findings are in agreement with the proposed contribution of microbial products to the stabilized soil organic matter and may help explain the shift in isotope composition during soil organic matter formation.     

Stability of copigmented anthocyanins and ascorbic acid in a grape juice model system

The stability of red grape anthocyanins (Vitis vinifera) was evaluated in a model juice system during normal (25 degrees C) and accelerated storage (35 degrees C) in the presence of ascorbic acid. Rosemary polyphenolic cofactors (0, 0.2, and 0.4% v/v) were evaluated as anthocyanin stabilizing agents. Cofactor addition resulted in concentration-dependent hyperchromic (up to 178%) and bathochromic (up to 23 nm) shifts, indicating a more intense red coloration of the models. Anthocyanin and ascorbic acid degradation followed first-order kinetics during storage. Results showed that copigmented treatments underwent a lower conversion of L-ascorbic acid into dehydroascorbic acid during storage when compared to the control, favorably impacting the vitamin retention of these models. Copigmentation did not affect anthocyanin degradation in the absence of ascorbic acid but in its presence aided to retain a higher anthocyanin content than the control. This study indicated that the addition of anthocyanin cofactors could be used to reduce the pigment and vitamin degradation while masking detrimental color changes in anthocyanin containing products.     

Evaluating methods for identifying large mammal road crossing locations: black bears as a case study

Landscape Ecology - Roads have several negative effects on large mammals including restricting movements, isolating populations, and mortality due to vehicle collisions. Where large mammals...