Uncertainty assessment of large-scale forest growth predictions based on a transition-matrix model in Catalonia

Key message

When predicting forest growth at a regional or national level, uncertainty arises from the sampling and the prediction model. Using a transition-matrix model, we made predictions for the whole Catalonian forest over an 11-year interval. It turned out that the sampling was the major source of uncertainty and accounted for at least 60 % of the total uncertainty.

Context

With the development of new policies to mitigate global warming and to protect biodiversity, there is a growing interest in large-scale forest growth models. Their predictions are affected by many sources of uncertainty such as the sampling error, errors in the estimates of the model parameters, and residual errors. Quantifying the total uncertainty of those predictions helps to evaluate the risk of making a wrong decision.

Aims

In this paper, we quantified the contribution of the sampling error and the model-related errors to the total uncertainty of predictions from a large-scale growth model in Catalonia.

Methods

The model was based on a transition-matrix approach and predicted tree frequencies by species group and 5-cm diameter class over an 11-year time step. Using Monte Carlo techniques, we propagated the sampling error and the model-related errors to quantify their contribution to the total uncertainty.

Results

The sampling variance accounted for at least 60 % of the total variance in smaller diameter classes, with this percentage increasing up to 90 % in larger diameter classes.

Conclusion

Among the few possible options to reduce sampling uncertainty, we suggest improving the variance–covariance estimator of the predictions in order to better account for the multivariate framework and the changing plot size.

     

Streptococcus phocae, an emerging pathogen for salmonid culture

This work describes the characterization of the causal agent of disease outbreaks that, from 1999, occurred repeatedly during the summer months (temperatures higher than 15 degrees C) in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) cage-farmed in Chile affecting both smolts and adult fish cultured in estuary and marine waters, reaching in some occasions a cumulative mortality up to 25% of the affected population. Diseased fish showed exophthalmia with accumulation of purulent and haemorrhagic fluid around eyes, and ventral petechial haemorrhages. At necropsy, haemorrhage in the abdominal fat, pericarditis, and enlarged liver, spleen and kidney are common pathological changes. Gram-stained smears revealed the presence of Gram-positive cocci, beta-hemolytic, negative for oxidase and catalase tests. Although biochemical characterization of the isolates using the miniaturized system rapid ID 32 Strep suggested their assignation to genus Gemella, sequencing and RFLP analysis of the 16S rRNA revealed that bacteria associated with the mortalities belong to Streptococcus phocae. Serological studies demonstrated that all the salmon isolates are antigenically homogeneous, which can facilitate the development of preventive measures and, although sharing some antigenical determinants, they belong to a different Lancefield group than the type strain isolated from seals. On the basis of these facts, we conclude that the species S. phocae is an emerging pathogen for salmonid culture in Chile, and it should be included as a new member of the warm water streptococcosis.     

Chitosan and Kappa-Carrageenan Vaginal Acyclovir Formulations for Prevention of Genital Herpes. In Vitro and Ex Vivo Evaluation

Vaginal formulations for the prevention of sexually transmitted infections are currently gaining importance in drug development. Polysaccharides, such as chitosan and carrageenan, which have good binding capacity with mucosal tissues, are now included in vaginal delivery systems. Marine polymer-based vaginal mucoadhesive solid formulations have been developed for the controlled release of acyclovir, which may prevent the sexual transmission of the herpes simplex virus. Drug release studies were carried out in two media: simulated vaginal fluid and simulated vaginal fluid/simulated seminal fluid mixture. The bioadhesive capacity and permanence time of the bioadhesion, the prepared compacts, and compacted granules were determined ex vivo using bovine vaginal mucosa as substrate. Swelling processes were quantified to confirm the release data. Biocompatibility was evaluated through in vitro cellular toxicity assays, and the results showed that acyclovir and the rest of the materials had no cytotoxicity at the maximum concentration tested. The mixture of hydroxyl-propyl-methyl-cellulose with chitosan- or kappa-carrageenan-originated mucoadhesive systems that presented a complete and sustained release of acyclovir for a period of 8–9 days in both media. Swelling data revealed the formation of optimal mixed chitosan/hydroxyl-propyl-methyl-cellulose gels which could be appropriated for the prevention of sexual transmission of HSV.     

Isolation and use of beneficial microbiota from the digestive tract of lions‐paw scallop Nodipecten subnodosus and winged pearl oyster Pteria sterna in oyster aquaculture

We isolated microbiota from the digestive tract of Nodipecten subnodosus and Pteria sterna and determined in vitro their haemolytic activity, antagonism against Vibrio spp., bacterial hydrophobicity, production of extracellular enzymes and molecular identification. Five bacterial strains were selected: RL5 and C3 (Lactobacillus spp.) and PB1‐1, PB1‐5 and PB1‐6 (Bacillus spp.). The RL5 and C3 isolates showed antimicrobial activity against Vibrio spp. and the PB1‐1, PB1‐5 and PB1‐6 isolates showed enzymatic activity for amylase, protease, lipase and cellulose; the C3 and PB1‐5 isolates were highly hydrophobic. The selected strains of bacteria were tested in vivo as probiotics, together with a treatment of ampicillin and a control without bacteria on juvenile Kumamoto oysters Crassostrea sikamea. The strains were provided individually and as mixes of isolates. Survival, growth and biochemical composition of the juveniles were determined as in vivo indicators. Juveniles grew significantly larger and faster when treated with a specific mix of isolates (MIX‐B), compared with the control. The protein, lipid and carbohydrate concentrations were also significantly higher in oysters exposed to probiotic treatments, compared with the control and the antibiotic treatment. The selected microbiota showed probiotic proprieties for cultivating C. sikamea juveniles.     

Growth response to climate and drought change along an aridity gradient in the southernmost Pinus nigra relict forests

Context

Tree populations at the rear edge of species distribution are sensitive to climate stress and drought. However, growth responses of these tree populations to those stressors may vary along climatic gradients.

Aims

To analyze growth responses to climate and drought using dendrochronology in rear-edge Pinus nigra populations located along an aridity gradient.

Methods

Tree-ring width chronologies were built for the twentieth century and related to monthly climatic variables, a drought index (Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index), and two atmospheric circulation patterns (North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean Oscillations).

Results

Growth was enhanced by wet and cold previous autumns and warm late winters before tree-ring formation. The influence of the previous year conditions on growth increased during the past century. Growth was significantly related to North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean Oscillations in two out of five sites. The strongest responses of growth to the drought index were observed in the most xeric sites.

Conclusion

Dry conditions before tree-ring formation constrain growth in rear-edge P. nigra populations. The comparisons of climate-growth responses along aridity gradients allow characterizing the sensitivity of relict stands to climate warming.     

Synthesis and Anti-Tuberculosis Activity of the Marine Natural Product Caulerpin and Its Analogues

Caulerpin (1a), a bis-indole alkaloid from the marine algal Caulerpa sp., was synthesized in three reaction steps with an overall yield of 11%. The caulerpin analogues (1b–1g) were prepared using the same synthetic pathway with overall yields between 3% and 8%. The key reaction involved a radical oxidative aromatic substitution involving xanthate (3) and 3-formylindole compounds (4a–4g). All bis-indole compounds synthesized were evaluated against the Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain H37Rv, and 1a was found to display excellent activity (IC₅₀ 0.24 µM).     

Enhancing growth and resistance to Vibrio alginolyticus disease in catarina scallop (Argopecten ventricosus) with Bacillus and Lactobacillus probiotic strains during early development

In bivalve aquaculture, selecting suitable probiotic treatments can be crucial for improving hatchery‐rearing of larvae and juveniles. We assessed the potential of five bacterial strains, previously selected in vitro, to improve survival, growth and resistance of catarina scallop Argopecten ventricosus during early and late larval and juvenile developmental stages, as well as during exposure to the pathogen Vibrio alginolyticus. Hatchery‐reared larvae and juveniles were treated with eight treatments of single or combined strains of Bacillus and Lactobacillus at 1 × 10⁶ CFU mL^?1 every 48 h for 9 days (larvae) and 21 days (juveniles). Compared with the control, significantly higher survival and growth in size and weight of early veliger larvae occurred with the antibiotic and the RL5 (Lactobacillus graminis) treatments. Significantly enhanced settlement of pediveliger larvae occurred with a different probiotic strain, the mix of Lactobacillus and Bacillus (MIX‐LB), while higher survival and growth of early juveniles occurred with C3 (Lactobacillus plantarum). The mix of Bacillus (MIX‐B) significantly increased survival of juveniles from V. alginolyticus after 120‐h infection, consistent with maximum activity of superoxide dismutase enzyme. In contrast, all untreated and infected scallops died by 96 h. The three Bacillus strains performed poorly when used as single treatments and when given to early developing larvae. Our results indicate that the action mechanism of probiotic strains is stage specific and strain specific, generating different responses by the host, including improved survival and growth (likely from better nutrient assimilation) and higher resistance against pathogens (possibly from strengthening the immune system).