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121.
Prediction of multinomial probability of land use change using a bisection decomposition and logistic regression 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
Land use change is an important research area in landscape ecology and urban development. Prediction of land use change (urban
development) provides critical information for making the right policies and management plans in order to maintain and improve
ecosystem and city functions. Logistic regression is a widely used method to predict binomial probabilities of land use change
when just two responses (change and no-change) are considered. However, in practice, more than two types of change are encountered
and multinomial probabilities are therefore needed. The existing methods for predicting multinomial probabilities have limits
in building multinomial probability models and are often based on improper assumptions. This is due to the lack of proper
methodology and inadequate software. In this study, a procedure has been developed for building models to predict the multinomial
probabilities of land use change and urban development. The foundation of this procedure consists of a special bisection decomposition
system for the decomposition of multiple-class systems to bi-class systems, conditional probability inference, and logistic
regression for binomial probability models. A case study of urban development has been conducted to evaluate this procedure.
The evaluation results demonstrated that different samples and bisection decomposition systems led to very similar quality
and performance in the developed multinomial probability models, which indicates the high stability of the proposed procedure
for this case study. 相似文献
122.
Effects of deficit irrigation strategies on cluster microclimate for improving fruit composition of Moscatel field-grown grapevines 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Tiago Pedreira dos Santos Carlos M. Lopes M. Lucília Rodrigues Claudia R. de Souza Jorge M. Ricardo-da-Silva João P. Maroco João S. Pereira M. Manuela Chaves 《Scientia Horticulturae》2007
The grapevine plays a very important role in the economic, social and cultural sectors of many regions; however vineyards are often grown in regions under stressful conditions and thus they are vulnerable to climate change. The objective of this research was to investigate the effect of partial root-zone drying (PRD) irrigation on vine water relations, vegetative growth, plant microclimate, berry composition and yield components, compared to conventional deficit irrigation (DI, 50% ETc), full irrigation (FI, 100% of ETc) and non-irrigated vines (NI). The study was undertaken in mature ‘Moscatel’ grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.) grown in Pegões, South of Portugal. Compared to the other irrigated treatments, PRD vines showed a better microclimate at the cluster zone with higher incident photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD). Within the more open canopies of NI and PRD treatments, berry temperatures were higher than those of denser ones (DI and FI). Compared to the conventional irrigation technique the better microclimate observed in PRD vines was a consequence of a reduction in vine growth, where lower values of leaf layer number, leaf area, canopy wideness, water shoots and shoot weight were observed. In PRD vines we observed a tendency to a development of a deeper root system, while DI and FI showed a more homogeneous root distribution throughout the different soil layers. PRD showed an improvement in berry quality with higher values of flavour precursors, and total phenols concentration without any significant yield reduction compared to DI and FI. 相似文献
123.
Neutral models for testing landscape hypotheses 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Neutral landscape models were originally developed to test the hypothesis that human-induced fragmentation produces patterns
distinctly different from those associated with random processes. Other uses for neutral models have become apparent, including
the development and testing of landscape metrics to characterize landscape pattern. Although metric development proved to
be significant, the focus on metrics obscured the need for iterative hypothesis testing fundamental to the advancement of
the discipline. We present here an example of an alternative neutral model and hypothesis designed to relate the process of
landscape change to observed landscape patterns. The methods and program, QRULE, are described and options for statistical
testing outlined. The results show that human fragmentation of landscapes results in a non-random association of land-cover
types that can be describe by simple statistical methods. Options for additional landscape studies are discussed and access
to QRULE described in the hope that these methods will be employed to advance our understanding of the processes that affect
the structure and function in human dominated landscapes. 相似文献
124.
Agent-based land-use models: a review of applications 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
Robin B. Matthews Nigel G. Gilbert Alan Roach J. Gary Polhill Nick M. Gotts 《Landscape Ecology》2007,22(10):1447-1459
Agent-based modelling is an approach that has been receiving attention by the land use modelling community in recent years,
mainly because it offers a way of incorporating the influence of human decision-making on land use in a mechanistic, formal,
and spatially explicit way, taking into account social interaction, adaptation, and decision-making at different levels. Specific
advantages of agent-based models include their ability to model individual decision-making entities and their interactions,
to incorporate social processes and non-monetary influences on decision-making, and to dynamically link social and environmental
processes. A number of such models are now beginning to appear—it is timely, therefore, to review the uses to which agent-based
land use models have been put so far, and to discuss some of the relevant lessons learnt, also drawing on those from other
areas of simulation modelling, in relation to future applications. In this paper, we review applications of agent-based land
use models under the headings of (a) policy analysis and planning, (b) participatory modelling, (c) explaining spatial patterns
of land use or settlement, (d) testing social science concepts and (e) explaining land use functions. The greatest use of
such models so far has been by the research community as tools for organising knowledge from empirical studies, and for exploring
theoretical aspects of particular systems. However, there is a need to demonstrate that such models are able to solve problems
in the real world better than traditional modelling approaches. It is concluded that in terms of decision support, agent-based
land-use models are probably more useful as research tools to develop an underlying knowledge base which can then be developed
together with end-users into simple rules-of-thumb, rather than as operational decision support tools.
This paper arises from research conducted as part of the UK Research Councils’ RELU Programme (award number RES-224-25-0102).
RELU is funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council, the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
and the Natural Environment Research Council, with additional funding from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural
Affairs and the Scottish Executive Environment and Rural Affairs Department. 相似文献
125.
Are hedgerows effective corridors between fragments of woodland habitat? An evidence-based approach 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
Anthropogenic modification of the countryside has resulted in much of the landscape consisting of fragments of once continuous
habitat. Increasing habitat connectivity at the landscape-scale has a vital role to play in the conservation of species restricted
to such remnant patches, especially as species may attempt to track zones of habitat that satisfy their niche requirements
as the climate changes. Conservation policies and management strategies frequently advocate corridor creation as one approach
to restore connectivity and to facilitate species movements through the landscape. Here we examine the utility of hedgerows
as corridors between woodland habitat patches using rigorous systematic review methodology. Systematic searching yielded 26
studies which satisfied the review inclusion criteria. The empirical evidence currently available is insufficient to evaluate
the effectiveness of hedgerow corridors as a conservation tool to promote the population viability of woodland fauna. However,
the studies did provide anecdotal evidence of positive local population effects and indicated that some species use hedgerows
as movement conduits. More replicated and controlled field investigations or long-term monitoring are required in order to
allow practitioners and policy makers to make better informed decisions about hedgerow corridor creation and preservation.
The benefits of such corridors in regard to increasing habitat connectivity remain equivocal, and the role of corridors in
mitigating the effects of climate change at the landscape-scale is even less well understood. 相似文献
126.
Past,present and future of landscape ecology 总被引:1,自引:2,他引:1
Jianguo Wu 《Landscape Ecology》2007,22(10):1433-1435
127.
The riverscape perspective recognizes the heterogeneous habitat types within the stream corridor as a single, integrated ecological
unit operating across spatial scales. Although there is ample evidence that the riverscape notion is appropriate in understanding
the physical phenomena of stream corridors, significantly less attention has focused on its ecological ramifications. To this
end, we surveyed riverscape habitat variables and bird community characteristics in the Champlain Valley of Vermont, USA.
From the data collected, we used information theoretic methodology (AICc) to model relationships between bird community attributes and key habitat variables across the riverscape. Our models with
the greatest support suggest that riverine bird communities respond to a suite of characteristics; representing a variety
of riverscape habitats at the in-stream, floodplain, and riparian levels. Channel slope, drainage area, percent conifers,
and in-stream habitat condition were among the most influential variables. We found that piscivores are potentially important
indicators of riverscape condition, responding to a host of variables across the riverscape. Our results endorse a holistic
approach to assessing and managing the mosaic of patches in the riverscape and suggest that a riverscape approach has significant
conservation potential. 相似文献
128.
The interaction between landscape structure and spatial patterns of plant invasion has been little addressed by ecologists
despite the new insights it can provide. Because of their spatial configuration as highly connected networks, linear wetlands
such as roadside or agricultural ditches, can serve as corridors facilitating invasion at the landscape scale, but species
dynamics in these important habitats are not well known. We conducted a landscape scale analysis of Phragmites australis invasion patterns (1985–2002 and 1987–2002) in two periurban areas of southern Québec (Canada) focusing on the interaction
between the network of linear wetlands and the adjacent land-uses. Results show that, at the beginning of the reference period,
the two landscapes were relatively non-invaded and populations occurred mostly in roadside habitats which then served as invasion
foci into other parts of the landscape. The intrinsic rates of increase of P. australis populations in linear anthropogenic habitats were generally higher than those reported for natural wetlands. Riparian habitats
along streams and rivers were little invaded compared to anthropogenic linear wetlands, except when they intersected transportation
rights-of-way. Bivariate spatial point pattern analysis of colonization events using both Euclidian and network distances
generally showed spatial dependence (association) to source populations. An autologistic regression model that included landscape
and edaphic variables selected transportation rights-of-way as the best predictor of P. australis occurrence patterns in one of the landscapes. Given the high invasion rates observed, managers of linear wetlands should
carefully monitor expansion patterns especially when roads intersect landscapes of conservation or economic value. 相似文献
129.
Dividing regions into manageable landscape units presents special problems in landscape ecology and land management. Ideally,
a landscape should be large enough to capture a broad range of vegetation, environmental and disturbance dynamics, but small
enough to be useful for focused management objectives. The purpose of this study was to determine the optimal landscape size
to summarize ecological processes for two large land areas in the southwestern United States. We used a vegetation and disturbance
dynamics model, LANDSUMv4, to simulate a set of nine scenarios involving systematically varied topography, map resolution,
and model parameterizations of fire size and fire frequency. Spatial input data were supplied by the LANDscape FIRE Management
Planning System (LANDFIRE) prototype project, an effort that will provide comprehensive and scientifically credible mid-scale
data to support the National Fire Plan. We analyzed output from 2,000 year simulations to determine the thresholds of landscape
condition based on the variability of burned area and dominant vegetation coverage. Results show that optimal landscape extent
using burned area variability is approximately 100 km2 depending on topography, map resolution, and model parameterization. Variability of dominant vegetation area is generally
higher and the optimal landscape sizes are larger in comparison to those features determined from burned area. Using the LANDFIRE
project as a case study, we determined landscape size and map resolution for a large mapping project, and showed that optimal
landscape size depends upon geographical, ecological, and management context.
This paper was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and therefore is in the public domain and
not subject to copyright. The use of trade or firm names in this paper is for reader information and does not imply endorsement
by the U.S. Department of Agriculture of any product or service. 相似文献
130.
While several studies have demonstrated that roads can act as barriers to small mammal movement, the relationship between
road density and small mammal abundance has not yet been investigated. In southeastern Ontario, Peromyscus leucopus (white-footed mice) suffer high over-winter mortality rates, resulting in small springtime populations and frequent local
extinctions. Peromyscus leucopus movement is known to be inhibited by roads, which should result in lower rates of immigration into and recolonization of
habitats in landscapes with high road density. We tested two predictions: (1) Forest sites situated in landscapes with high
road densities have a higher chance of P. leucopus being absent during the early spring than forest sites situated in landscapes with low road densities and (2) P. leucopus populations during the summer are smaller in forest sites situated in landscapes with high road densities than in landscapes
with low road densities. We sampled P. leucopus in focal patches within nineteen landscapes (7 rural, low-road-density landscapes; 7 rural, high-road-density landscapes;
5 urban landscapes). There was no significant relationship between road density and the presence/absence of P. leucopus during the early spring. We found a significant positive effect of road density on P. leucopus relative abundance during the summer, even when we excluded the urban landscapes and based the analysis on only the 14 rural
landscapes. Our results suggest that any negative effect of roads on P. leucopus populations, created by their inhibition to moving across roads, is far outweighed by some positive effect of roads on P. leucopus abundance. We suggest that the two most likely explanations are that roads are positively correlated with an important as-yet-undetermined
component of habitat quality, or that roads positively affect P. leucopus by negatively affecting their predators. 相似文献