Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models,and a knowledge-based scoring system

Context

No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates—hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns.

Objective

A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model—DISTRIB II, a species colonization model—SHIFT, and knowledge-based scoring system—MODFACs, to illustrate a decision support framework.

Methods

Using shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum) as examples, we project suitable habitats under two future climate change scenarios (harsh, Hadley RCP8.5 and mild CCSM RCP4.5 at ~2100) at a resolution of 10 km and assess the colonization likelihood of the projected suitable habitats at a 1 km resolution; and score biological and disturbance factors for interpreting modeled outcomes.

Results

Shortleaf pine shows increased habitat northward by 2100, especially under the harsh scenario of climate change, and with higher possibility of natural migration confined to a narrow region close to the current species range boundary. Sugar maple shows decreased habitat and has negligible possibility of migration within the US due to a large portion of its range being north of the US border. Combination of suitable habitats with colonization likelihoods also allows for identification of potential locations appropriate for assisted migration, should that be deemed feasible.

Conclusion

The combination of these multiple components using diverse approaches leads to tools and products that may help managers make management decisions in the face of a changing climate.

     

Biomarker evidence for photosynthesis during neoproterozoic glaciation

Laterally extensive black shales were deposited on the S?o Francisco craton in southeastern Brazil during low-latitude Neoproterozoic glaciation approximately 740 to 700 million years ago. These rocks contain up to 3.0 weight % organic carbon, which we interpret as representing the preserved record of abundant marine primary productivity from glacial times. Extractable biomarkers reflect a complex and productive microbial ecosystem, including both phototrophic bacteria and eukaryotes, living in a stratified ocean with thin or absent sea ice, oxic surface waters, and euxinic conditions within the photic zone. Such an environment provides important constraints for parts of the "Snowball Earth" hypothesis.     

Extraneous variables and their influence on reflectance-based measurements of leaf water content

Leaf water indices based on leaf reflectance may depend not only on the variable of interest, leaf water content, but may also be influenced by a variety of extraneous variables, leading to considerable data variability if such extraneous variables are not eliminated or taken into account. Here, we examined the nature of three potential extraneous variables: homogeneity of the leaf target area, the distance between a primary reflecting leaf and background material, and measurement sensitivity at various wavelengths. Although leaf water indices appear to be homogeneously distributed between major leaf veins, they may fluctuate substantially in areas where major veins are present. Leaf water indices may also depend to some extent on the distance between a primary reflecting leaf and any reflecting background material, at least for small distances. Leaf water indices utilizing the 970 or 1200 nm water absorption bands have been shown to be rather insensitive to changes in leaf water content, potentially resulting in low signal-to-noise ratios, an additional source of data variability.     

Power Requirements of Hemp Cutting and Conditioning

Laboratory experiments were conducted on cutting hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) using a sickle knife section and a countershear to determine the mechanical properties of the stems. The results showed that the cutting force and energy were significantly greater at a higher moisture content and specific mass of hemp stem. The average values of the maximum force and the total cutting energy required for cutting a hemp stem were 243 N and 2·1 J, respectively, which were much higher than those reported in the literature for cutting forage crops and maize stalk. Based on the laboratory results, the cutting power requirement in a field situation was estimated using the specific mass of hemp stem and machine feed rate. Power requirement associated with feed rate was investigated in a field experiment of cutting hemp using a reciprocating cutterbar mower operated at three different feed rates. Field conditioning experiments were also conducted to investigate the power requirement for conditioning hemp and a forage crop (alfalfa). The results showed that conditioning hemp required 10–60% more specific energy than conditioning alfalfa.     

Geographical barriers and ecological gradients: Geographical distribution of the subspecies and morphotypes of Deutonura deficiens Deharveng, 1979 (Collembola: Neanuridae)

This work explores the links between ecogeographical barriers and clines, and the boundaries of infraspecific biological entities. The distribution of the three subspecies and eight morphotypes of the Neanurinae Deutonura deficiens (Collembola) are mapped and commented based on 570 records. The species inhabits a wide range of forest habitats from the north of Portugal to southeastern France. The subspecies and morphotypes constitute homogeneous geographic sets arranged as a mosaic of closely related forms. A few overlapping zones between subspecies or morphotypes have been detected, some of them having the character of hybrid zones; on the whole however, overlap is small or rare and allopatry or parapatry is the general pattern. Current range boundaries of subspecies and morphotypes were found to be usually not determined by major hydrographical and topographical barriers, with the noticeable exception of the Rhône River. At subspecies level, the morphological cline of increasing tuberculization correlated to the bioclimatic gradient from Mediterranean to Atlantic climates, already recorded by Deharveng (1984. Polymorphisme et polytypisme morphologiques chez quelques Neanurinae européens. Rev. Ecol. Biol. Sol. 21, 533–562), is confirmed on the present data set. Conversely, ecological boundaries, known to constrain species distribution in many living groups of the region, do not fit the contact zones between the different morphotypes of the three subspecies of D. deficiens. The eight recognized forms appear to be at different degrees of reproductive isolation, illustrating active speciation process possibly inherited from recent ecogeographical events. A more detailed sampling on contact zones and a robust phylogenetic hypothesis are needed at this stage for progressing in our understanding of this complex pattern.