Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Effect of feeding intensity and milking system on nutritionally relevant milk components in dairy farming systems in the North East of England

There is increasing concern that the intensification of dairy production reduces the concentrations of nutritionally desirable compounds in milk. This study therefore compared important quality parameters (protein and fatty acid profiles; α-tocopherol and carotenoid concentrations) in milk from four dairy systems with contrasting production intensities (in terms of feeding regimens and milking systems). The concentrations of several nutritionally desirable compounds (β-lactoglobulin, omega-3 fatty acids, omega-3/omega-6 ratio, conjugated linoleic acid c9t11, and/or carotenoids) decreased with increasing feeding intensity (organic outdoor ≥ conventional outdoor ≥ conventional indoors). Milking system intensification (use of robotic milking parlors) had a more limited effect on milk composition, but increased mastitis incidence. Multivariate analyses indicated that differences in milk quality were mainly linked to contrasting feeding regimens and that milking system and breed choice also contributed to differences in milk composition between production systems.     

Epidemiological investigations of an outbreak of intestinal atresia in two Israeli dairy herds

An epidemiological investigation of an outbreak of intestinal atresia in Israeli Holstein-Friesian newborn calves showed a linkage with rectal palpation for early pregnancy diagnosis, performed less than 42 days after insemination. The odds of an exposed calf, i.e., one born to a dam that was diagnosed by early palpation as having intestinal atresia were 119.7 times higher than one born in normal control herds (95% CI; 7.4-1946.3). A total of 682 calves-at-risk was recorded from mid-1998 to mid-2000 and a total of 47 calves (6.9%) were born with intestinal atresia during this period. Two forms of intestinal atresia were recognized at post-mortem: atresia coli and atresia ilei.     

Association with the Syndrome "Basses Richesses" of Sugar Beet of a Phytoplasma and a Bacterium-Like Organism Transmitted by a Pentastiridius sp

ABSTRACT The syndrome "basses richesses" of sugar beet (SBR) was first observed in 1991 in Burgundy, France. A cixiid planthopper, Pentastiridius beieri, has been proved to be involved in the transmission to sugar beet of a stolbur phytoplasma, which could be detected in some affected plants. In 2000, periwinkle and sugar beet exposed to field-collected cixiids developed symptoms similar to SBR on sugar beet. Use of 4'-6-diamidino-2-phenylindole (DAPI) staining and transmission electron microscopy confirmed the presence of phytoplasma in some of the plants, which were also positive for this pathogen in a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis. A phloem-restricted gram-negative bacteria was seen in all other plants with symptoms but PCR-negative for phytoplasma. Three primer pairs reported as diagnostic for phloem-limited bacteria were tested but only primers specific for 'Candidatus Phlomobacter fragariae' gave a positive signal, which related to the presence of DAPI-stained bacteria-like objects in diseased plants. Although phytoplasma and bacterium-like organisms were associated with the same macroscopic symptoms on sugar beet, histochemical analysis of phloem cells showed that phytoplasma were associated with cell necrosis and cell wall lignification, while bacteria were associated with these same abnormalities as well as deposit of phenolic compounds in the lumen of phloem cells.     

Fungal flora on cutaneous and mucosal surfaces of cats infected with feline immunodeficiency virus or feline leukemia virus

OBJECTIVE: To compare cutaneous and mucosal mycoflora in cats infected with FIV or FeLV with that in noninfected cats. ANIMALS: 85 client-owned cats; 24 seropositive for FIV, 10 seropositive for FeLV, 1 seropositive for both viruses, and 50 seronegative for both viruses. PROCEDURE: Cutaneous specimens were obtained from the coat and external acoustic meatus (ear canal) and mucosal specimens from the oropharynx and rectum. Fungi were isolated from specimens, using Sabouraud dextrose agar incubated at 27 or 37 C for cutaneous and mucosal specimens, respectively. RESULTS: Fungal colonies were cultured from at least 1 specimen from 83 of 85 (97.6%) cats. The most common fungal isolates were Aspergillus spp (cultured from 59.3% of all specimens), Penicillium spp (50.0%), Cladosporium spp (44.2%), Scopulariopsis spp (41.8%), and lipophilic yeasts of the genus Malassezia (31.4%). A greater diversity of fungal genera was isolated from retrovirus-infected cats, and Malassezia spp were more commonly recovered from these cats, compared with noninfected cats. Candida albicans, Cryptococcus neoformans, and dermatophytes (eg, Microsporum canis) were rarely isolated from any cat. Significant differences in frequency of isolation of C. neoformans and dermatophytes were not found between infected and noninfected cats. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Cats infected with FIV or FeLV may have a greater diversity of cutaneous and mucosal mycoflora than noninfected cats. However, infected cats may be no more likely than noninfected cats to expose humans to zoonotic fungi such as C. albicans, C. neoformans, and M. canis.     

Factors affecting a sheep vegetation management system in British Columbia, Canada

A silvopastoral agroforestry system involving sheep is an important silvicultural issue. We examined the factors that affect the continuation or discontinuation of sheep vegetation management (SVM) in British Columbia. A questionnaire was used to conduct interviews with a randomly selected sample of contractors and farmers who were involved in SVM in British Columbia (BC). Based on a stepwise discriminant analysis, we found that the profitability of SVM, and the practitioners' commitment (number of ewes owned by the farmer or contractor), experience (number of years the farmer or contractor has practiced SVM on public lands in BC) and trust or confidence (number of years the farmer or contractor has consistently worked for the landlord) contributed to the farmer's or contractor's continuation or discontinuation of SVM practice. The factors we defined seemed to be validated (corroborated) by a complex of determinants voiced by various experts concerning the relationship between SVM and the forestry economy in BC, the scale of sheep farming in BC, the relative absence of an agricultural infrastructure to support sheep farming in BC, and the continuity of SVM from year to year. Further investigation into these factors and others is required to advance our understanding of SVM in British Columbia. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Laser microprobe mass analysis (LAMMA) of aluminum and lead in fine roots and their ectomycorrhizal mantles of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.)

Fine roots and ectomycorrhizal root tips were sampled in a Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stand in the eastern part of the Belgian Ardennes. The cellular and partly subcellular localizations of aluminum and lead were identified by the micro-analytical laser microprobe mass analysis (LAMMA) technique. In fine roots with secondary structure, localization of aluminum was limited to the peripheral cell layers. Lead was found in the outer layers, and also in the primary phloem. Aluminum penetrated the mycorrhizal mantle, but lead was seldom detected in ectomycorrhizae.     

Antimicrobial flavonoids from the stem bark of Erythrina burttii

The chloroform extract of the stem bark of Erythrina burttii showed antifungal and antibacterial activities using the disk diffusion method. Flavonoids were identified as the active principles. Activities were observed against fungi and Gram(+) bacteria, but the Gram(-) bacteria Escherichia coli was resistant.