Impact of species-specific dispersal and regional stochasticity on estimates of population viability in stream metapopulations

Species dispersal is a central component of metapopulation models. Spatially realistic metapopulation models, such as stochastic patch-occupancy models (SPOMs), quantify species dispersal using estimates of colonization potential based on inter-patch distance (distance decay model). In this study we compare the parameterization of SPOMs with dispersal and patch dynamics quantified directly from empirical data. For this purpose we monitored two metapopulations of an endangered minnow, redside dace (Clinostomus elongatus), using mark-recapture techniques across 43 patches, re-sampled across a 1 year period. More than 2,000 fish were marked with visible implant elastomer tags coded for patch location and dispersal and patch dynamics were monitored. We found that species-specific dispersal and distance decay models provided qualitatively similar rankings of viable patches; however, there were differences of several orders of magnitude in the estimated intrinsic mean times to extinction, from 24 and 148 years to 362 and >100,000 years, depending on the population. We also found that the rate of regional stochasicity had a dramatic impact for the estimate of species viability, and in one case altered the trajectory of our metapopulation from viable to non-viable. The divergent estimates in time to extinction times were likely due to a combination species-specific behavior, the dendritic nature of stream metapopulations, and the rate of regional stochasticity. We demonstrate the importance of developing comparative analyses using species- and patch-specific data when determining quantitative estimates for mean time to extinction, which in the case of redside dace, were highly sensitive to different estimates of dispersal.     

Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, adaptation to climate change must be considered in the context of other driving forces that will cause farms of the future to look differently from today’s farms. In this paper we use a historical analysis of the influence of different drivers on farm structure, complemented with literature and stakeholder consultations, to assess future structural change of farms in a region under different plausible futures. As climate change is one of the drivers considered, this study thus puts climate change impact and adaptation into the context of other drivers. The province of Flevoland in the north of The Netherlands was used as case study, with arable farming as the main activity. To account for the heterogeneity of farms and to indicate possible directions of farm structural change, a farm typology was developed. Trends in past developments in farm types were analyzed with data from the Dutch agricultural census. The historical analysis allowed to detect the relative importance of driving forces that contributed to farm structural changes. Simultaneously, scenario assumptions about changes in these driving forces elaborated at global and European levels, were downscaled for Flevoland, to regional and farm type level in order to project impacts of drivers on farm structural change towards 2050. Input from stakeholders was also used to detail the downscaled scenarios and to derive historical and future relationships between drivers and farm structural change. These downscaled scenarios and future driver-farm structural change relationships were used to derive quantitative estimations of farm structural change at regional and farm type level in Flevoland. In addition, stakeholder input was used to also derive images of future farms in Flevoland. The estimated farm structural changes differed substantially between the two scenarios. Our estimations of farm structural change provide a proper context for assessing impacts of and adaptation to climate change in 2050 at crop and farm level.     

Effects of single-tree selection harvesting on hymenopteran and saproxylic insect assemblages in the canopy and understory of northern temperate forests

Insects respond to changes in microhabitat caused by canopy disturbance, and thus can be used to examine the ecological impacts of harvesting. Single-tree selection harvesting is the most common silvicultural system used to emulate local small-scale natural disturbance and maintain uneven-aged forest structure in temperate forests. Here, we test for differences in richness, abundance, and composition of hymenopteran and saproxylic insect assemblages at four different taxon levels (selected insect orders; and all hymenopteran families, and braconid subfamilies and morphospecies) between the canopy and understory of unharvested and single-tree selection harvested sites in a northern temperate forest from central Canada. Harvesting had no effect on insect assemblage richness, composition or abundance at the three highest taxon levels (order, family and subfamily). Similarly, richness and abundance at the lowest-taxon level (braconid morphospecies) were similar, although composition differed slightly between unharvested and harvested stands. Insect assemblages were vertically stratified, with generally higher abundance (for Diptera, Hymenoptera, some hymenopteran families and braconid subfamilies) and richness (for braconid morphospecies) in the understory than the canopy. In particular, composition of the braconid morphospecies assemblage showed relatively low similarity between the understory and canopy. Single-tree selection harvesting appears to influ-ence wood-associated insect taxa only subtly through small changes in community composition at the lowest taxon level, and thus is recommended as a conservative approach for managing these northern temperate forests.     

Drought and frost resistance of trees: a comparison of four species at different sites and altitudes

Context   

Drought and frost resistances are key factors for the survival and distribution of tree species.     

Acclimatation of three co-occurring tree species to water stress and their role as site indicators in mixed pine-oak forests in the Sierra Madre Oriental,Mexico

Water availability and salt excess are limiting factors in Mexican mixed pine-oak forest. In order to characterise the acclimatation of native species to these stresses, leaf water (Ψ_w) and osmotic potentials (Ψ_s) of Juniperus flaccida, Pinus pseudostrobus and Quercus canbyi were measured under natural drought and non-drought conditions under two different aspects in the Sierra Madre Oriental. Factorial ANOVA revealed significant differences in Ψ_w and Ψ_s between two aspects, species and sampling dates. In general, all species showed high predawn and low midday values that declined progressively with increasing drought and soil–water loss. Seasonal and diurnal fluctuation of Ψ_w and Ψ_s were higher for J. flaccida and Q. canbyi than for P. pseudostrobus. Leaf Ψ_w and Ψ_s were mainly correlated with soil water content, while Ψ_s of P. pseudostrobus were hardly correlated with environmental variables. Thus, species have different strategies to withstand drought. P. pseudostrobus was identified as a species with isohydric water status regulation, while J. flaccida and Q. canbyi presented water potential patterns typical for anisohydric species. The type of water status regulation may be a critical factor for plant survival and mortality in the context of climate change. Nevertheless, for precise conclusions about the advantages and disadvantages of each type, further long-term investigations are required.     

Genetic diversity and relationships between wild and cultivated olives (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Olea europaea</Emphasis> L.) in Sardinia as assessed by SSR markers

The genetic relationships within and between wild and cultivated olives were examined and clarified in an isolated and restricted area, such as the Mediterranean island of Sardinia. Wild (21 individuals) and cultivated olive trees (22 local cultivars from a germplasm collection and 35 ancient trees) were genotyped by means of 13 SSR loci. Five cases of synonymy were observed and nine distinct genotypes were identified in the collection. Five novel genotypes were also detected among the ancient trees. Differences on the allelic composition and heterozygosity levels were found between wild and cultivated trees. Model-based clustering method classified the olive trees into two major gene pools: (a) wild genotypes and (b) local cultivars from the collection and from heritage olives. Regarding the cultivated plant material, we observed that: (a) most of the Sardinian cultivars shared the same allelic profiles with the ancient cultivated trees and (b) the majority of these cultivars and all the novel genotypes were not related to any other cultivars included in this study. These findings as well as the detection of unique alleles and a certain wild genetic background at some cultivars revealed by the Bayesian analysis may indicate their autochthonous origin. The synonymy cases found between local cultivars and Italian mainland cultivars indicate interchange of genetic material among these growing areas, suggesting thus a possible allochthonous origin. The information obtained can assist in the management of an olive collection and sheds some light on the survival of true oleasters and the origin of Sardinian cultivars.