Predicting silage maize yield and quality in Sweden as influenced by climate change and variability

Abstract

In recent decades European silage maize production has extended northwards, into Scandinavia, and the importance of maize in fodder production has increased substantially. For the northward expansion of maize production it is of interest to evaluate both the role of climate change that has occurred already, and scenarios for possible future climate change. The aim of this study was to assess for Swedish climatic conditions, the annual variation in silage maize yield and quality (dry weight and starch contents) of cultivars currently grown in Germany.

The MAISPROQ simulation model currently used in German maize production was applied to evaluate the effects of (i) cultivar differences (four cultivars; four sites; 2003–2009), (ii) intra-regional variation among ten sites representing three regions (two cultivars; 2003–2009), and (iii) climatic variability among two historical periods during 1961–2009 and three future periods during 2011–2100 using A2-emission climate scenarios and the Delta-method (two cultivars; four sites).

Forage quality assessments strongly influenced the assessments of harvest time and thereby the yield. Changes in simulated yield of the tested cultivars were high for the past climate, but relatively small under future climatic conditions due to earlier harvest caused by improved forage quality. By the end of the 21st century an appropriate fodder quality would be achieved every year in the south of Sweden, whereas in the middle of Sweden (60°N) about 30% of the years would not be successful, even for the earliest cultivar. In the east, increased water stress counteracted the positive effect of a prolonged growing season. It was concluded that adaptation of field experiments to model calibration requirements remains to be done, in order to enable extrapolation of observations from Swedish field trials to a changing future climate.     

Screening for intrinsic water use efficiency in a potato dihaploid mapping population under progressive drought conditions

A drought screening experiment focusing on intrinsic water use efficiency (WUE_i) was carried out among 132 clones belonging to a dihaploid potato mapping population. The clones were exposed to progressive soil drying during a five-day period in a greenhouse pot experiment. Analysis of the underlying variables was done based on a multivariate data analysis strategy. The strategy successfully divided the clones into WUE_i performance categories. Differences between clonal WUE_i responses were traced back to differences in the net photosynthetic rate. Stomatal conductance (g_s) did not vary significantly between the clones. Leaf abscisic acid (ABA) concentration and leaf water potential were found to reflect known isohydric behaviour for potato, and a non-linear relationship could be established for g_s and leaf ABA concentration across the WUE_i groups. Similarly, a common non-linear relationship between leaf ABA concentration and soil water potential was found. The latter findings suggest that the investigated population did not harbour significant genetic variation as to ABA production as function of soil desiccation level or with respect to the sensitivity of stomatal aperture vis-à-vis leaf ABA concentration and soil water potential.     

Bats and bees are pollinating Parkia biglobosa in The Gambia

A pollination experiment was conducted with Parkia biglobosa (Fabaceae) in The Gambia. P. biglobosa is integrated in the farming systems and produces fruit pulp and seeds used in cooking. The species is bat-pollinated, and in areas with few bats the main pollinators are assumed to be honey bees. A higher rate of effective pollination will in many instances increase fruit production, and the aim of this study was to investigate pollination efficiency of different pollinators. Access of flower visiting animals to flowers was controlled by nets with differently sized mesh, using five trees as replicates. The pollinators’ identity, efficiency, and relative effect were determined. Bats, honey bees, and stingless bees were able to pollinate the species. Bat-visited capitula produced more pods, but not significantly more than honey bees. Honey bees were more efficient than stingless bees, resulting in significantly less aborted seeds. The treatment which excluded all flower visitors developed no mature pods, indicating that P. biglobosa was not autonomous autogamous, apomictic, or parthenocarpic, while the treatment with confined honey bees showed that geitonogamy is possible. Sugar content of fruit pulp was analysed and a positive correlation between number of seeds per pod and the sugar content was found. Improved pollination success may thus result in sweeter fruits. We conclude it is important to strive against a pollinator-friendly environment in order to attract bats and bees. Furthermore, we suggest beekeeping in the vicinity of P. biglobosa as a way to increase yield.     

Genetic analysis of Trichuris suis and Trichuris trichiura recovered from humans and pigs in a sympatric setting in Uganda

The whipworms Trichuris trichiura and Trichuris suis in humans and pigs, respectively, are believed to be two different species yet closely related. Morphologically, adult worms, eggs and larvae of the two species are indistinguishable. The aim of this study was to examine the genetic variation of Trichuris sp. mainly recovered from natural infected pigs and humans. Worm material isolated from humans and pigs living in the same geographical region in Uganda were analyzed by PCR, cloning and sequencing. Measurements of morphometric characters were also performed. The analysis of the ITS-2 (internal transcribed spacer) region showed a high genetic variation in the human-derived worms with two sequence types, designated type 1 and type 2, differing with up to 45%, the type 2 being identical to the sequence found in pig-derived worms. A single human-derived worm showed exclusively the type 2-genotype (T. suis-type) and three cases of 'heterozygote' worms in humans were identified. However, the analysis showed that sympatric Trichuris primarily assorted with host origin. Sequence analysis of a part of the genetically conserved β-tubulin gene confirmed two separate populations/species but also showed that the 'heterozygote' worms had a T. suis-like β-tubulin gene. A PCR-RFLP on the ITS-2 region was developed, that could distinguish between worms of the pig, human and 'heterozygote' type. The data suggest that Trichuris in pigs and humans belong to two different populations (i.e. are two different species). However, the data presented also suggest that cross-infections of humans with T. suis takes place. Further studies on sympatric Trichuris populations are highly warranted in order to explore transmission dynamics and unravel the zoonotic potential of T. suis.     

The prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) infections in feral populations of cats (Felis catus), ferrets (Mustela furo) and stoats (Mustela erminea) in Otago and Southland, New Zealand

Twenty-one properties in the Otago region of the South Island of New Zealand were surveyed for the presence of gross lesions due to Mycobacterium bovis infection in feral cats (Felis catus), ferrets (Mustela furo) and stoats (Mustela erminea) during 1993 and 1994. In total, 1293 cats, ferrets, stoats and weasels (Mustela nivalis) were examined for the presence of tuberculous lesions. The properties surveyed were selected according to the history and incidence of bovine tuberculosis infection in their cattle herds. Sixteen infected cattle properties were trapped in areas of Otago that were endemic for bovine tuberculosis and five properties were trapped in non-endemic areas that were considered to be free from tuberculosis infection in the cattle. No tuberculous cats, ferrets, stoats or weasels were found in non-endemic areas, and prevalence rates in the endemic areas were 0.9% for cats (n=215, 0.12相似文献   

Quantification of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pyrenophora graminea</Emphasis> in barley seed using real-time PCR

A real-time PCR assay was designed to quantify seed-borne infection of Pyrenophora graminea in barley (Hordeum vulgare). Conventional tests such as the freezing blotter method cannot distinguish P. graminea from the closely related P. teres. The seed infection threshold for P. graminea is lower than the one for P. teres and is therefore applied for both species although P. graminea may be absent. This results in unnecessary rejections of seed lots. PCR primers and a TaqMan probe were designed to target a P. graminea-specific DNA sequence. The potential of the real-time PCR assay for quantifying seed-borne infection of P. graminea was investigated by examining seed lots harvested from P. graminea-infected fields. The major part (84%) of the variation in the amount of P. graminea DNA measured by real-time PCR could be attributed to variation between seed lots while only about 8% was due to variation within seed lots. DNA quantities of P. graminea were positively correlated with seed infection incidence detected by the freezing blotter method as well as with the infection incidence of plants examined in the greenhouse. Both correlations were highly significant (P < 0.001) but the DNA quantities accounted only for 59% (R ² = 0.59) and 56% (R ² = 0.56), respectively, of the variation in the results obtained by the two conventional methods. Seed lots of varieties resistant to P. graminea contained considerable amounts of P. graminea DNA but showed no or only few leaf symptoms in the greenhouse test suggesting that the recommended seed infection thresholds could be raised for resistant varieties.     

Using longitudinal survival probabilities to test field vigour estimates in sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.)

Tree mortality is a major force driving forest dynamics. To foresters, however, tree mortality is often considered a loss in productivity. To reduce tree mortality, silvicultural systems, such as selection cuts, aim at removing trees that are more likely to die. In order to identify trees with higher risks of mortality, field classifications are employed that assess vigour based on external characteristics of trees. We used a novel longitudinal approach for estimating survival probabilities based on ring-width measurements, initially developed by Bigler and Bugmann [Bigler, C., Bugmann, H., 2004. Predicting the time of tree death using dendrochronological data. Ecol. Appl. 14 (3), 902–914], to parameterize a survival probability model for sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) and to test whether field-assessed tree vigour classes are corroborated by survival probabilities determined from radial growth history. Data from 56 dead and 321 live sugar maples were collected in stands in western Quebec (Canada) that had undergone a selection cut ≈10 years prior to sampling. Our results showed that tree vigour established from external defects and pathological symptoms, using the classification of Boulet [Boulet, B., 2005. Défauts externes et indices de la carie des arbres: guide d’interprétation. Publication du Québec, Sainte-Foy, Quebec. 291 pp.], is partially corroborated by growth-driven survival probabilities. Moribund trees had lower survival probabilities than vigorous trees over several years in the period prior to vigour assessment. Intermediate vigour classes showed less obvious tendencies, but this may be due to the growth-independent nature of some defects used for their classification. Although the timing of tree death may not be correctly predicted by the vigour classification (i.e., our results suggest that time of death generally was overestimated), its general agreement with survival probabilities determined from growth series make it a useful tool for tree selection in sugar maple stands under selection management.