Comparison of the Sensitivity of Landscape-fire-succession Models to Variation in Terrain, Fuel Pattern, Climate and Weather

The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer & wetter, and warmer & drier) and weather (year-to-year variability) was determined for four existing landscape-fire-succession models (EMBYR, FIRESCAPE, LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) and a new model implemented in the LAMOS modelling shell (LAMOS(DS)). Sensitivity was measured as the variance in area burned explained by each of the four factors, and all of the interactions amongst them, in a standard generalised linear modelling analysis. Modelled area burned was most sensitive to climate and variation in weather, with four models sensitive to each of these factors and three models sensitive to their interaction. Models generally exhibited a trend of increasing area burned from observed, through warmer and wetter, to warmer and drier climates with a 23-fold increase in area burned, on average, from the observed to the warmer, drier climate. Area burned was sensitive to terrain for FIRESCAPE and fuel pattern for EMBYR. These results demonstrate that the models are generally more sensitive to variation in climate and weather as compared with terrain complexity and fuel pattern, although the sensitivity to these latter factors in a small number of models demonstrates the importance of representing key processes. The models that represented fire ignition and spread in a relatively complex fashion were more sensitive to changes in all four factors because they explicitly simulate the processes that link these factors to area burned. The US Government's and the Canadian Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license is acknowledged     

Ultrastructural and Cytochemical Aspects of the Biological Control of Botrytis cinerea by Candida saitoana in Apple Fruit

ABSTRACT Biocontrol activity of Candida saitoana and its interaction with Botrytis cinerea in apple wounds were investigated. When cultured together, yeast attached to Botrytis sp. hyphal walls. In wounded apple tissue, C. saitoana restricted the proliferation of B. cinerea, multiplied, and suppressed disease caused by either B. cinerea or Penicillium expansum. In inoculated apple tissue without the yeast, fungal colonization caused an extensive degradation of host walls and altered cellulose labeling patterns. Hyphae in close proximity to the antagonistic yeast exhibited severe cytological injury, such as cell wall swelling and protoplasm degeneration. Colonization of the wound site by C. saitoana did not cause degradation of host cell walls. Host cell walls in close contact with C. saitoana cells and B. cinerea hyphae were well preserved and displayed an intense and regular cellulose labeling pattern. In addition to restricting fungal colonization, C. saitoana induced the formation of structural defense responses in apple tissue. The ability of C. saitoana to prevent the necrotrophic growth of the pathogen and stimulate structural defense responses may be the basis of its biocontrol activity.     

Effects of a Cover Crop on Splash Dispersal of Colletotrichum acutatum Conidia

ABSTRACT A rain simulator, with generated rains of 11 and 30 mm/h, was used to determine the effect of a cover crop or intercrop on the splash dispersal of Colletotrichum acutatum conidia. Dispersal through sudangrass, which can be used as a 'living mulch', was tested at two planting densities (140 or 280 kg/ha) and two heights (5 and 20 cm) and compared with a control consisting of a bare soil. Dispersal of C. acutatum conidia was assessed by counting colonies formed from spore-bearing splash droplets deposited in sheltered petri plates containing a selective medium. Both a cover crop and rain intensity significantly affected splash dispersal as measured by the interpolated total number of colonies (denoted by Sigma) from 0 to 72 cm from the inoculum source and in a time span of 61 min of generated rain (P < 0.001). However, there was no significant interaction of cover crop and intensity (P > 0.90). Dispersal with a 30-mm/h rain was higher than dispersal with a 11-mm/h rain, and presence of a cover crop significantly reduced dispersal compared with bare soil (P < 0.001). Of the treatments with sudangrass, cover crop planting density did not affect dispersal overall, but there was greater spore dispersal with the taller sudangrass at the higher planting density, due in part to the higher rate of water splashing with the tall grass compared with the short grass. Spore deposition in the petri plates could be functionally related to distance and time using a diffusion-type model, and parameter estimates could be used to explain the effects of cover crop on Sigma. Although the relationship between cover crop properties and splash dispersal is complex, results show the potential beneficial effects of the cover crop on disease management.     

Use of Degenerate Primers in a RT-PCR Assay for the Identification and Analysis of Some Filamentous Viruses, with Special Reference to Clostero- and Vitiviruses of the Grapevine

RT-PCR with degenerate primers was used for the screening of the genome of some members of the Closterovirus, Vitivirus and Trichovirus genera. Two sets of primers, targeted to conserved sequences of the heat shock protein 70 homologue of closteroviruses or to the RNA dependent RNA polymerase genes of tricho- and vitiviruses, amplified the expected fragments from total RNA extracts or double-stranded RNAs of infected plants. Amplified cDNAs were cloned, sequenced and phylogenetically analyzed. Results support the allocation of grapevine viruses A, B, D and heracleum latent virus (HLV) in the genus Vitivirus, whereas, the detection of a HSP70 homologue in grapevine leafroll-associated viruses agrees with their assignment in the genus Closterovirus. The use of degenerate primers for the identification of grapevine viruses belonging to Vitivirus and Closterovirus genera is envisaged.     

Epidemiology and pathogenesis of Mycobacterium bovis infection of red deer (Cervus elaphus) in New Zealand

AIMS: This study was initiated to investigate aspects of the epidemiology, pathogenesis and transmission of tuberculosis in wild red deer, with the aim of determining whether this species may be considered a reservoir host of Mycobacterium bovis in New Zealand. METHOD: One hundred and six wild red deer (Cervus elaphus) carcasses from the Castlepoint and Hauhungaroa Range areas, which are endemic for bovine tuberculosis, were examined for the presence of M. bovis infection. Samples were also examined from 46 skin test-positive farmed deer killed at two deer slaughter premises. Where possible, a standard set of tissues and excretion site samples was collected for mycobacteriological examination. RESULTS: Fifty-eight infected deer were identified, and of these 28% showed no gross lesions. The prevalence of tuberculosis confirmed by culture in the wild deer was 32%. Only one of 18 deer younger than 1 year was infected. Mature deer (>2 years) were 12 times more likely to be infected than those under 1 year of age. Infected older deer were less likely to show typical gross lesions than younger animals. Mycobacterium bovis was isolated from the oropharyngeal tonsil of 34 of 56 (61%) of the infected deer, and this was the most commonly infected site. Gross lesions were found in 18 of the 34 infected tonsils and only one of these showed a purulent tonsillitis. Mycobacterium bovis was recovered from four of 53 nasopharyngeal tonsils, four of 53 oropharyngeal swabs, one of 53 tracheal and nasal swabs, and one of 46 faecal samples, but not from any urine specimens. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that significant bacillary excretion from infected deer was uncommon, and is more likely to occur in severely affected animals. This study has confirmed the importance of mucosa-associated lymphoid tissues (MALT), particularly the oropharyngeal tonsil, in the pathogenesis of tuberculosis in deer. The findings justify investigation of the hypotheses that the prevalence of tuberculosis in wild deer in New Zealand is high due to transmission of infection from possums, and that in the absence of an infected possum population, the prevalence of tuberculosis in deer is likely to be low, and spatially patchy. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The results suggest that about one quarter of infected deer show no detectable gross lesions. This implies that many infected carcasses may enter the food chain unrecognised and that the estimated sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests may be erroneous if there is a difference in test performance between those conducted on deer with or without gross lesions. Diagnostic sensitivity following slaughter may be improved by routine culture of oropharyngeal tonsils and careful examination of lungs for adhesions and small subpleural tubercles.     

Selecting linear-score distributions for modelling milk-culture results

The data for this cross-sectional retrospective study are from surveys of 65 dairy-cattle herds in central New York, USA sampled between February, 1993 and March, 1995. The objective was to identify probability distributions of logarithmically transformed somatic-cell counts (linear score) for use in a simulation model of mastitis and milk quality. Probability density functions were estimated using maximum-likelihood estimators for the linear score of individual-cow compositemilk samples culture negative and culture positive for the pathogens Streptococcus agalactiae, Streptococcus non-agalactiae, Staphylococcus aureus, and coagulase-negative staphylococci for the complete dataset and by bulk-tank somatic-cell count group (< 500 000, ≥ 500 000 SCC/ml). Based on the rankings of three goodness-of-fit tests (Anderson-Darling, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and x²), the Weibull distribution (among the three top-ranking distributions for 14 out of 15 cases) may be used to model the individual-cow linear-score response by culture-result-specific bulk-tank somatic-cell count group. A β distribution was among the three top-ranking distributions for nine out of 15 culture-result-specific bulk-tank somatic-cell count groups and has a logical relationship to linear score because it is defined on a fixed interval. On the other hand, the normal distribution had a poorer fit than the Weibull and at least two other distributions for all culture negative and coagulase-negative staphylococci samples. We do not assume that the underlying biological processes are fully explained by either Weibull or β distribution—but modelling the linear score for the above culture results with these distributions provided an adequate fit to the survey data, reduced the need for two-sided truncation that open intervals needed, and had errors that did not appear to be systematically positive or negative.