Quantifying uncertainty in the wild‐caught fisheries goal of the Ocean Health Index

Sustainability indices are proliferating, both to help synthesize scientific understanding and inform policy. However, it remains poorly understood how such indices are affected by underlying assumptions of the data and modelling approaches used to compute indicator values. Here, we focus on one such indicator, the fisheries goal within the Ocean Health Index (OHI), which evaluates the sustainable provision of food from wild fisheries. We quantify uncertainty in the fisheries goal status arising from the (a) approach for estimating missing data (i.e., fish stocks with no status) and (b) reliance on a data‐limited method (catch‐MSY) to estimate stock status (i.e., B/B_MSY). We also compare several other models to estimate B/B_MSY, including an ensemble approach, to determine whether alternative models might reduce uncertainty and bias. We find that the current OHI fisheries goal model results in overly optimistic fisheries goal statuses. Uncertainty and bias can be reduced by (a) using a mean (vs. median) gap‐filling approach to estimate missing stock scores and (b) estimating fisheries status using the central tendency from a simulated distribution of status scores generated by a bootstrap approach that incorporates error in B/B_MSY. This multitiered approach to measure and describe uncertainty improves the transparency and interpretation of the indicator and allows us to better understand uncertainty around our OHI fisheries model and outputs for country‐level interpretation and use.     

Sperm Quality Over Consecutive Spermatophore Regenerations in the Pacific White Shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei

The reproductive potential of males plays an important role in the productivity of captive penaeids. Males present a large variability in their reproductive potential, and thus the selection of appropriate males for reproduction is highly desirable. The present study compares sperm quality at the beginning of the experiment (baseline values) with variations in sperm quality as a result of consecutive spermatophore regenerations. This was done to evaluate possible predictive criteria for optimal sperm quality based on morphological and biochemical criteria in pond-reared Pacific white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei males. Sperm quality was similar between left and right spermatophore. Sperm count and proportion of normal sperm increased by 86 and 65% (P < 0.05) respectively, from baseline values to third spermatophore regeneration. Proportion of dead sperm progressively decreased with consecutive regenerations, attaining values 33% lower by the third regeneration, compared to baseline values. This indicates that no decrease in sperm quality occurs in L. vannamei during consecutive regenerations and that the existing spermatophores at stocking of males should be expelled to have higher sperm quality in regenerated spermatophores. Furthermore, this procedure allows selecting individuals with high baseline sperm quality based on significant correlations between baseline and regenerated sperm quality observed in the present work. Baseline values of glucose concentration in the hemolymph were positively correlated to baseline values of sperm count (r = 03, P < 0.05). In contrast, baseline values of several lipids in the hemolymph were negatively correlated to several traits of sperm quality at first sampling (baseline values) or at first regeneration. These results are discussed in terms of nutritional requirements of males and of possible predictive criteria of sperm quality.     

Defining competition vectors in a temperate alley cropping system in the midwestern USA: 1. Production physiology

With renewed interest in the use of ecologically-designed, sustainable agricultural systems for temperate regions of the world, agroforestry is being proposed as an alternative to intensive production of crops in monocultures. However, the knowledge-base for understanding and managing complex, multi-strata systems worldwide is limited, particularly so for temperate regions. We examined an alley cropping system in the midwestern US where maize (Zea mays L.) is grown in alleys between tree rows of either black walnut (Juglans nigra L.) or red oak (Quercus rubra L.). During a course of ten years, crop yields in rows adjacent to tree rows declined by 50% or more. With the experimental introduction of barriers to separate tree and crop root systems, yields in the rows near trees were equal to those of the center row (and monoculture). Irrespective of a high correlation between photosynthetically active radiation and net photosynthesis, shading did not have a major influence on crop yield. At this stage of system development (11 year old trees), influence of incident PAR on crop yield seems to be minimal. Subsequent papers in this series examine the sharing of belowground resources between trees and crops to quantify the competitive interactions that impact crop yields and their implications for economic return to the farmer.This revised version was published online in November 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Identification of QTLs for phenolic compounds in oilseed rape (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Brassica napus L.</Emphasis>) by association mapping using SSR markers

Association mapping identifies quantitative trait loci (QTLs) by examining the marker-trait associations that can be attributed to the strength of linkage disequilibrium between markers and functional polymorphisms across a set of diverse germplasm. In this study, association mapping was performed to detect QTL-linked and genome wide SSR markers linked to phenolic compounds of extraction meal in a population of 49 genetically diverse oilseed rape cultivars of dark-seeded, winter-type oilseed rape accessions. Correction for population structure was performed using 559 genome wide SSR markers. Results showed that seed colour is an important contributor to seed meal quality. Totally, 52 SSR markers linked to phenolic compounds were detected, five of them being QTL linked markers. Some of these markers were already mapped on Brassica napus chromosomes that contain known QTL controlling oilseed rape meal quality traits. Our results demonstrate that association mapping is a useful approach to complement and enhance previous QTL information for marker-assisted selection.     

Evidence for long‐term spatial displacement of breeding and pupping harbour seals by shellfish aquaculture over three decades

• 1. Shellfish mariculture is increasing worldwide and often occurs adjacent to marine mammal breeding and feeding habitat. To better understand breeding pinniped vulnerability to potential shellfish mariculture disturbance and displacement effects in a US National Park, potential mechanisms were explored that may affect the proportion of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) selecting high quality haul‐out sites near shellfish aquaculture within a large colony, and overall seal utilization of that colony in relation to other regional colonies.
• 2. Seal haul‐out sites isolated from the mainland (no predator access) had higher pup:adult ratios, indicating they are generally more important for pupping. Short‐term human disturbance did not have a significant effect on spatial use, but rather spatial use was pre‐determined by general sandbar isolation. Using multiple competing hypothesis and an information‐theoretic approach, it was found that within the estuary, after removing effects of El Niño, the proportion of seals (total seals and pups only) hauled out near mariculture sites was 8 ± 2% lower during years of higher oyster harvest. Annual oyster harvest was used as a measure of aquaculture activity that could result in direct disturbance or indirect displacement of harbour seals.
• 3. At the regional scale, oyster harvest, seal counts at a nearby colony, and loss of a major haul‐out site within the estuary, best explained pup and total seal use compared with the region. Regional population size, short‐term human disturbance rate, and other factors were not important. Concurrent with higher oyster harvest, the proportion of regional seals using the estuary declined by 7 ± 2% for seal pups (–65 ± 18 total pups), and 5 ± 2% for total counts ( ? 192 ± 58 total seals). These findings (both within the estuary and at the regional scale) were essentially identical whether modelling oyster harvest as either a continuous or categorical (low/high) variable and when using either frequentist or Bayesian statistical analyses.
• 4. Marine reserves set aside for wildlife may be less effective when the highest quality breeding and pupping sites are adjacent to regular aquaculture activities. These effects may not be detectable until additional natural variation lowers the quality of nearby habitats. Published in 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

     

Nanominerals, mineral nanoparticles, and Earth systems

Minerals are more complex than previously thought because of the discovery that their chemical properties vary as a function of particle size when smaller, in at least one dimension, than a few nanometers, to perhaps as much as several tens of nanometers. These variations are most likely due, at least in part, to differences in surface and near-surface atomic structure, as well as crystal shape and surface topography as a function of size in this smallest of size regimes. It has now been established that these variations may make a difference in important geochemical and biogeochemical reactions and kinetics. This recognition is broadening and enriching our view of how minerals influence the hydrosphere, pedosphere, biosphere, and atmosphere.     

Cultural styles of participation in farmers’ discussions of seasonal climate forecasts in Uganda

Climate change is confronting African farmers with growing uncertainties. Advances in seasonal climate predictions offer potential for assisting farmers in dealing with climate risk. Experimental cases of forecast dissemination to African rural communities suggest that participatory approaches can facilitate understanding and use of uncertain climate information. But few of these studies integrate critical reflections on participation that have emerged in the last decade which reveal how participatory approaches can miss social dynamics of power at the community level and in the broader context. Furthermore, neither climate application research nor theoretical critiques of participation fully examine the culturally constructed nature of participation. Drawing on sociolinguistic analysis, in-depth interviews, and ethnographic observation, this paper examines how Ugandan farmers engage in participation in the context of discussions of seasonal climate forecasts. Forecasts were presented to farmers groups whose members were then asked to discuss the forecast among themselves. In doing so, groups sought to develop a common understanding of the forecast and consensual plans for response strategies. Focusing on one particular group meeting as an example, we show how different cultural styles of participation affect the interpretation of the forecast and the formulation of response strategies. Group interaction is shown to be mostly structured around two styles of participation. On the one hand, there is the “Western” style advocated by NGOs and the government, which centers on ensuring that all individuals who are present have opportunities to speak during discussion and to vote on group decisions. On the other hand, a “Kiganda” style of participation emphasizes the importance of affirming ties to a collectivity, respect for social hierarchy, deployment of good manners, and consensus building. The case study illuminates how the performance of different styles of participation is grounded in localized frameworks of language and culture but also draw on political and policy discourses at the national level. Although a cultural high value on consensus may work in favor of prominent members, the availability of multiple styles of participation also enables group members to exercise their agency in positive ways. Attention to the interplay of different styles of participation throws light on the subtle social processes that shape how knowledge is assessed, which sources are trusted, which and whose interpretations prevail, what options are deemed viable, how costs and benefits are calculated, and whose resources are mobilized in the effort to reduce vulnerability to climate risk. These are key questions for an assessment of the role of boundary organizations, such as farmer associations, in the communication and application of climate forecasts in agriculture.     

Strong top-down control in southern California kelp forest ecosystems

Global-scale changes in anthropogenic nutrient input into marine ecosystems via terrestrial runoff, coupled with widespread predator removal via fishing, have created greater urgency for understanding the relative role of top-down versus bottom-up control of food web dynamics. Yet recent large-scale studies of community regulation in marine ecosystems have shown dramatically different results that leave this issue largely unresolved. We combined a multiyear, large-scale data set of species abundances for 46 species in kelp forests from the California Channel Islands with satellite-derived primary production and found that top-down control explains 7- to 10-fold more of the variance in abundance of bottom and mid-trophic levels than does bottom-up control. This top-down control was propagated via a variety of species-level direct and indirect responses to predator abundance. Management of top-down influences such as fishing may be more important in coastal marine ecosystems, particularly in kelp forest systems, than is commonly thought.     

Movement patterns of Brook Trout in a restored coastal stream system in southern Massachusetts

Coastal Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) populations are found from northern Canada to New England. The extent of anadromy generally decreases with latitude, but the ecology and movements of more southern populations are poorly understood. We conducted a 33‐month acoustic telemetry study of Brook Trout in Red Brook, MA, and adjacent Buttermilk Bay (marine system) using 16 fixed acoustic receivers and surgically implanting acoustic transmitters in 84 individuals. Tagged Brook Trout used the stream, estuary (50% of individuals) and bay (10% of individuals). Movements into full sea water were brief when occurring. GAMM models revealed that transitions between habitat areas occurred most often in spring and fall. Environmental data suggest that use of the saline environment is limited by summer temperatures in the bay. Movements may also be related to moon phase. Compared to more northern coastal populations of Brook Trout, the Red Brook population appears to be less anadromous overall, yet the estuarine segment of the system may have considerable ecological importance as a food resource.