A review of decision-making approaches to handle uncertainty and risk in adaptive forest management under climate change

• Context  

This review paper provides an overview of approaches to which we may resort for handling the complex decision problems involving uncertainty and risk that climate change implies for forest managers. Modelling approaches that could support adaptive management strategies seem to be called for, not only as climate change denotes increased economic uncertainty but also because new and more reliable information becomes available as time passes and climate changes.     

Mechanical transmission of Trypanosoma vivax in cattle by the African tabanid Atylotus fuscipes

An experiment was carried out in Burkina Faso to evaluate the potential for mechanical transmission of Trypanosoma vivax by the African tabanid Atylotus fuscipes. The experiment was carried out in a corral (10 m x 10 m) completely covered by a mosquito net (12 m x 12 m and 2.5m high). Eight heifers (cross-bred Zebu X Baoulé), free of trypanosome infection, were kept together with two heifers experimentally infected with a local stock of T. vivax. An average of 539 A. fuscipes per day, freshly captured with two Nzi traps, were introduced into the mosquito net from Day 1 to 20, to allow mechanical transmission of the parasites among cattle. Daily parasitological examinations (BCM) of cattle blood samples indicated that six of the eight receiver heifers were positive from days 9, 10, 15, 16, 19 and 29. Mechanical transmission of T. vivax by A. fuscipes was demonstrated unequivocally in close to natural conditions, at a high rate (75% incidence over a 20-day period) under a mean challenge of 54 insects per heifer per day. These results, in addition to previous demonstration of mechanical transmission of T. vivax by Atylotus agrestis, confirm that mechanical transmission can be a significant route of infection.     

Computational Comparison of Stand-Centered Versus Cover-Constraint Formulations

The area restriction model for harvest scheduling problems can be formulated using mixed integer programs. The three different formulation types are cluster packing, cell aggregation, and the assignment formulation. Within the cell aggregation subgroup there is an exact formulation, the cover constraint (CC) approach; and an inexact formulation, the stand-centered approach. The cover constraint formulation has significantly more constraints than the stand-centered formulation. A computational comparison between these two methods is completed using cutting planes and constraint combinations using the CPLEX solver package. The CC approach as cutting planes was superior based on solution time. If formulation time were included with solution time, then the CC approach remains superior. The maximum harvest area is a significant factor of solution time. In addition, the percentage of total cutting planes used to solve the problem was examined.     

Drivers of Deforestation in the Lake Victoria Crescent,Uganda

We examined key drivers of deforestation in the Lake Victoria Crescent, Uganda from 1989 to 2009 through a case study approach with a multiple-case design. Nineteen focus groups with local community members and forest officials, archival analysis, and field observation revealed both proximate causes and underlying drivers of deforestation. Proximate causes of deforestation included agricultural expansion into forests, unsustainable extraction of wood forest products, and clearing of forests for nonagricultural uses. Underlying drivers of these proximate causes included policy and institutional factors, economic factors, population growth, technological changes, and changes in culture—each resulting in alienation of local people from forest resources. Alienation of local people, defined as a psychological dispossession of responsibility for forest resources, is posited as the most important underlying driver of deforestation. We discuss the importance of the involvement of local people in the management and maintenance of forests in the Lake Victoria Crescent.     

Rider and Horse Salivary Cortisol Levels During Competition and Impact on Performance

During competition, stress may affect riders and horses. This stress can affect health, welfare, and/or performance. Our aim was to quantify stress levels during competition in horses and riders. We also searched relationships between these stress levels and performance. Twenty riders and 23 horses were followed up during a show-jumping event (26 courses) held at a riding school. Regular saliva samples taken from horses and riders were assayed to evaluate cortisol levels. We studied salivary cortisol evolution during the days of competition. There was no correlation between instantaneous sampling on horses and their riders. However, we did find a parallel between horse and rider salivary cortisol evolution curves, with a similar peak, reached 20 minutes after the course. The increase was stronger in riders than in horses. Correlations appeared between salivary cortisol concentration and performance, but stress in both partners seems to have an opposite influence on performance. Riders who showed a higher salivary cortisol increase were awarded more penalties, whereas horses that showed a higher increase in salivary cortisol performed better. Stress level measurement in rider–horse pairs would thus lead to improvement in competition conditions and performance, for horses as well as for riders.     

Climate Variability and Oceanographic Settings Associated with Interannual Variability in the Initiation of Dinophysis acuminata Blooms

In 2012, there were exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in early spring in what appeared to be a mesoscale event affecting Western Iberia and the Bay of Biscay. The objective of this work was to identify common climatic patterns to explain the observed anomalies in two important aquaculture sites, the Galician Rías Baixas (NW Spain) and Arcachon Bay (SW France). Here, we examine climate variability through physical-biological couplings, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and time of initiation of the upwelling season and its intensity over several decades. In 2012, the mesoscale features common to the two sites were positive anomalies in SST and unusual wind patterns. These led to an atypical predominance of upwelling in winter in the Galician Rías, and increased haline stratification associated with a southward advection of the Gironde plume in Arcachon Bay. Both scenarios promoted an early phytoplankton growth season and increased stability that enhanced D. acuminata growth. Therefore, a common climate anomaly caused exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in two distant regions through different triggering mechanisms. These results increase our capability to predict intense diarrhetic shellfish poisoning outbreaks in the early spring from observations in the preceding winter.     

Presence and viability of Ceratocystis lukuohia in ambrosia beetle frass from Rapid ʻŌhiʻa Death‐affected Metrosideros polymorpha trees on Hawaiʻi Island

Rapid ?ōhi?a Death (ROD) is a fungal disease of ?ōhi?a lehua (Myrtaceae: Metrosideros polymorpha) caused by Ceratocystis lukuohia and C. huliohia. ROD is the aetiological agent of widespread mortality of this important tree on Hawai?i Island, but its epidemiology remains unclear. We investigated the prevalence and viability of C. lukuohia in ambrosia beetle frass in ROD‐affected ?ōhi?a trees. A total of 200 frass traps were placed onto C. lukuohia‐infected ?ōhi?a at four locations on the east side of Hawai?i Island. Frass was collected and screened for the presence of C. lukuohia DNA using a diagnostic qPCR assay. In addition, frass samples were screened for viability by carrot baiting. All trapped beetles were of the genus Xyleborus, with the majority being the non‐native X. ferrugineus. Of the frass samples tested, 62% contained C. lukuohia DNA and 17% of carrot baits were positive for the fungus. These results indicate that ambrosia beetle frass releases C. lukuohia into the environment. We discuss the potential role infested frass could play in the ROD pathosystem.     

Partial cutting in mixedwood stands: Effects of treatment configuration and intensity on stand structure,regeneration, and tree mortality

In temperate and boreal mixedwood forests of eastern North America, partial disturbances such as insect outbreaks and gap dynamics result in the development of irregular forest structures. From a forest ecosystem management perspective, management of these forests should therefore include silvicultural regimes that incorporate medium- to high-retention harvesting. We present 12-year results of a field experiment undertaken to evaluate the effects of variable retention harvesting on stand structure, recruitment, and mortality. Treatments were gap harvesting (GAP), diameter-limit harvesting (DL), careful logging (CL), and careful logging followed by scarification (CL + SCAR), and an unharvested control. Although post-harvest basal area in the GAP treatment was significantly lower than that of controls, it maintained a diameter distribution profile and densities of balsam fir regeneration similar to those of pre-harvest conditions. Lower retention treatments (DL, CL, and CL + SCAR) tended to favor regeneration of pioneer, shade-intolerant species. Except for black spruce (for which mortality was highest in DL), stem mortality was similar among harvesting treatments. From an ecosystem management perspective, this study suggests that gap harvesting can maintain, in the short term, forest stand composition and structure similar to unharvested forests, and could be used where management objectives include the maintenance of late successional forest conditions.     

Soil Characteristics Overwhelm Cultivar Effects on the Structure and Assembly of Root-Associated Microbiomes of Modern Maize

Modern breeding primarily targets crop yield traits and is likely to influence root-associated microbiomes, which play significant roles in plant growth and health. The relative importance of soil and cultivar factors in shaping root-associated microbiomes of modern maize (Zea mays L.) remains uncertain. We conducted a pot experiment in a controlled environment using three soils (Mollisol, Inceptisol, and Ultisol) and four contrasting cultivars, Denghai 605, Nonghua 816, Qiaoyu 8, and Zhengdan 958, which are widely planted in China. We used 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to characterize the bacterial communities in the bulk soil, rhizosphere, and endosphere. Our results showed that the four cultivars had different shoot biomass and root exudate total organic carbon and organic acid contents. The microbiomes in the bulk soil, rhizosphere, and endosphere were different. We observed apparent community divergence between soils rather than cultivars, within which edaphic factors substantially contributed to microbiome variation. Moreover, permutational multivariate analysis of variance corroborated significant contributions of soil type but not cultivar on the root-associated microbiome structure. Differential abundance analysis confirmed that each soil presented a distinct root microbiome, while network analysis indicated different co-occurrence patterns of the root microbiome among the three soils. The core root microbiome members are implicated in plant growth promotion and nutrient acquisition in the roots. In conclusion, root-associated microbiomes of modern maize are much more controlled by soil characteristics than by cultivar root exudation. Our study is anticipated to help improve breeding strategies through integrative interactions of soils, cultivars, and their associated microbiomes.