A bayesian approach to crop Model calibration under unknown error covariance

Bayesian methods seem well adapted to dynamic system models in general and to crop models in particular, because there is in general prior information about parameter values. The usefulness of a Bayesian approach has often been pointed out, but actual applications are rather rare. A major difficulty is including the elements of the covariance matrix of model errors in the treatment. We treat the specific case of balanced data and an unstructured covariance matrix. In our particular case this is a 3 × 3 matrix. We illustrate two methods for deriving a sample from the joint posterior density for the crop model parameters and the error covariance matrix parameters. The first method is based on importance sampling, the second on Metropolis within Gibbs sampling. We derive an instrumental density for the former and a proposal density for the latter which are adapted to this type of model and data. Both algorithms work well and they give very similar results. The example concerns a model for sunflowers during rapid leaf growth. The ultimate goal is to use the model as a decision aid in predicting disease risk.     

Clinicopathological studies on facial eczema outbreak in sheep in Southwest Turkey

After very hot summer, 22 sheep from 5 different flocks consisting of approximately 150-200 animals each were diagnosed with facial eczema in September 2005, in southwest Turkey. Photophobia, corneal opacity, severe ulcers of the facial skin, especially localized around the eyes and mouth, and 3% mortality were the most prominent clinical symptoms. GGT levels of the animals were very high and varying between 261- 328 U/l. While the activities of ALT and total bilirubin were elevated and AST was normal in affected sheep. Total bilirubin level was higher than normal. Seven of the 22 sheep were euthanatized and necropsy was performed on all of these animals. Severe icterus, hepatomegaly, enlarged gallbladder, congestion of mesenteric vessels were the common necropsy findings. Histopathological changes of the liver included necrosis of the hepatocytes, cholangiohepatitis characterized by mononuclear inflammatory cell infiltrate in the portal area and mild to severe fibrosis around bile ducts. A diagnosis of sporidesmin toxicosis was made based on the histopathology of the livers, the elevation in liver enzymes, and the development of cutaneous lesions consistent with photosensitization and high spore counts in the ruminal contents. Surviving sheep were treated with procaine penicillin + dihidrostreptomycin sulfate, multivitamin complexes and flunixin meglumine. Additionally, zinc sulphate was also given at a dose of 6 gr per 100 lt drinking water for 28 days. All treated sheep recovered. Pasture spore counts were between 96,300- 267,500 spores/g grass.     

Temporal-spatial epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Mongolia, 2000 – 2002

Prior to 2000, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) had not been observed in Mongolia since 1973; however, between April 2000 and July 2002, Mongolia reported 44 FMD outbreaks that affected cattle, sheep, goats, and camels. The objectives of this study were to describe the distributions of the 44 reported FMD outbreaks in Mongolia and to assess their spatial clustering and directions of movement. Official reports were collected to obtain the number and species of animals both affected and at risk, and the date and geographical coordinates of each outbreak. Significant global and local spatial clusters of reported FMD outbreaks were identified. Disease spread during the second epidemic moved 76° northeast and the spread of the disease during the third epidemic moved 110° northwest. FMD outbreaks were clustered intensely close to other FMD-positive counties. These findings can be used in the future to help plan prevention and control measures in high risk areas.     

Effect of biotin supplementation on hoof health and ceramide composition in dairy cattle

The effect of biotin supplementation on various foot lesions and hoof ceramide composition of toe (wall) and sole portions of hooves was studied in crossbred dairy cattle. Biotin supplementation was done for five months in 14 cattle at a farm and the other 14 animals kept as control. A significant decline was observed in heel erosions and sole avulsions along with total disappearance of white line fissures and double soles in the biotin supplemented cattle resulting in decrease in the overall disease score. Thin layer chromatographs of the hoof lipids revealed 11 types of ceramides in sole lipids and 6 types of ceramides in toe (wall) lipids. The ceramides were typed and identified according to their Rf values. A qualitative increase in the density of thin layer chromatographs of sole lipids was observed in biotin supplemented cattle whereas a non-significant difference in density of thin layer chromatographs of toe lipids was observed after supplementation of biotin.     

Response of mountain plovers to plague-driven dynamics of black-tailed prairie dog colonies

Sylvatic plague is a major factor influencing the dynamics of black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies in the western Great Plains. We studied the nesting response of the mountain plover (Charadrius montanus), a grassland bird that nests on prairie dog colonies, to plague-driven dynamics of prairie dog colonies at three sites in the western Great Plains. First, we examined plover nest distribution on colonies that were previously affected by plague, but that had been recovering (expanding) for at least 6 years. Plovers consistently nested in both young (colonized in the past 1–2 years) and old (colonized for 6 or more years) portions of prairie dog colonies in proportion to their availability. Second, we examined changes in plover nest frequency at two sites following plague epizootics, and found that mountain plover nest numbers declined relatively rapidly (≤2 years) on plague-affected colonies. Taken together, our findings indicate that available plover nesting habitat associated with prairie dog colonies closely tracks the area actively occupied by prairie dogs each year. Given the presence of plague throughout most of the mountain plover’s breeding range in the western Great Plains, important factors affecting plover populations likely include landscape features that determine the scale of plague outbreaks, the distance that plovers move in response to changing breeding habitat conditions, and the availability and quality of alternate breeding habitat within the landscape.     

Predicting land cover changes and their impact on the sediment influx in the Lake Balaton catchment

The land cover pattern in the Lake Balaton catchment (Hungary) has been changing since decollectivization in the 1990s. These land cover changes significantly impact the landscape connectivity, controlling the influx of sediments into the lake. A comparison of high resolution land cover maps from 1981, 2000 and 2005 showed a significant extensification of the agriculture with land cover conversions from arable land and vineyards to grassland and forest. For each land unit transition probabilities were assessed using logistic regression techniques to evaluate to which extent land cover changes are controlled by physical or socio-economic parameters. A stochastic land cover allocation algorithm was applied to generate future land cover patterns. The landscape connectivity for each of the simulated land cover patterns was assessed by means of a distributed routing algorithm. The simulations suggest that further land abandonment in the upslope parts of the catchment will cause a non-linear reduction of average soil erosion rates. The changes, however, have a relatively low impact on the sediment volume entering the lake because of the land unit’s poor connectivity with permanent river channels. The major contributors to the lakes sediment load are the vineyards near the lakeshore. They are likely to be maintained because of their touristic value. A significant reduction of the total sediment input in the lake can be expected only if soil conservation measures in the vineyards near the shorelines are undertaken.