Real options for precautionary fisheries management

The 1996 Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) ‘Guidelines on the Precautionary Approach to Fisheries and Species Introduction’ raise important issues for fisheries managers, but fail to prescribe an approach for risk management. The distinguishing characteristics of the ‘precautionary approach’ are the inclusion of uncertainty and ‘an elaboration on the burden of proof’. The FAO precautionary approach emphasizes that managers should be risk‐averse, but does not provide tools for determining the appropriate degree of risk aversion. Consequently, application of the precautionary approach often leads to decision‐making based on ad hoc safety margins. These safety margins are seldom chosen with explicit consideration of trade‐offs. If the emphasis was shifted to choosing between competing uncertainties, then managers could manage risk. By attempting to avoid risk, managers may gain exposure to other risks and perhaps miss valuable opportunities. We place fishery management problems within the rubric of ‘real investment’ problems, and compare and contrast the consideration of risk by alternative investment frameworks. We show that traditional investment frameworks are inappropriate for fishery management, and furthermore, that traditional precautionary approaches are arbitrary and without basis in decision theory. Quantitative decision‐making techniques, such as formal decision analysis (FDA), enable integration of competing hypotheses that help alleviate burden‐of‐proof issues. These techniques help analysts consider sources of uncertainty. FDA, however, can still be subject to arbitrary safety margins because such analyses often focus on determining which strategies best achieve, or avoid, targets that have been established without complete consideration of trade‐offs. A managerial finance approach, real options analysis (ROA), is an alternative and complementary decision‐making technique that enables managers to compute precautionary adjustments that couple the size of the ‘safety margin’ with the amount of uncertainty, thereby optimizing risk exposure and avoiding the need for arbitrary safety margins. We illustrate the advantages of an approach that combines FDA and ROA, using a heuristic example about a decision to re‐introduce Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) into Lake Ontario. Finally, we provide guidance on applying ROA to other fishery problems. The precautionary approach requires that managers consider risk, but considering risk is not the same as managing it. Here ROA is useful.     

Effect of moisture on thermal inactivation of soilborne pathogens under structural solarization

ABSTRACT Structural solarization of greenhouses for sanitation by closing them involves dry heating to 60 degrees C and higher with a consequent low relative humidity (RH) ( approximately 15%), thus requiring an extended period for thermal inactivation of pathogens. In an attempt to enhance pathogen control by increasing moisture during the hot hours of the day, various regimes of inoculum moistening were studied. However, wetting inoculum of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. melonis and F. oxysporum f. sp. radicis-lycopersici resulted in less effective pathogen control compared with that of dry heating. Fifty percent effective dose (ED(50)) values of thermal inactivation of wetted and dry inoculum for the former pathogen were 18 and 7 days, respectively, and for the latter, a respective 9 and 4 days. This was because wetting resulted in inoculum cooling due to evaporation, which eventually led to its drying. A model describing the drying of wet inoculum in a wetted greenhouse, based on the fact that there was an approximately 10 degrees C difference between greenhouse and ambient temperatures, was proposed. A double-tent system reduced this difference to 1 to 2 degrees C, reduced moisture loss, and led to improved inoculum inactivation of F. oxysporum f. sp. radicis-lycopersici. Thus, the ED(50) value of thermal inactivation was reduced from 15 days to 1 day, because this system provided both high temperature ( approximately 60 degrees C) and high RH ( approximately 100%), resulting in effective wet heating.     

The Bovine Tuberculosis Campaign in Mexico： Present and Perspectives

Mexico is considered by different international organizations as a country where the bovine tuberculosis is an endemic problem. However, there are important and consistent improvements in eradicating the disease by the implementation of government policies and with the livestock organization support. The current situation of the program shows good results regarding decreasing the prevalence, and as a consequence, the risk of this disease for public health and animal health, as well as the improvement in animal production and international and national trade. Today, the bovine tuberculosis distribution is almost known in Mexico. In addition, a series of controls and indicators have been established, which allow maintain consistency and reliability in the data that are managed and analyzed.     

Genetic parameter estimation for pre- and post-weaning traits in Brahman cattle in Brazil

Beef cattle producers in Brazil use body weight traits as breeding program selection criteria due to their great economic importance. The objectives of this study were to evaluate different animal models, estimate genetic parameters, and define the most fitting model for Brahman cattle body weight standardized at 120 (BW120), 210 (BW210), 365 (BW365), 450 (BW450), and 550 (BW550) days of age. To estimate genetic parameters, single-, two-, and multi-trait analyses were performed using the animal model. The likelihood ratio test was verified between all models. For BW120 and BW210, additive direct genetic, maternal genetic, maternal permanent environment, and residual effects were considered, while for BW365 and BW450, additive direct genetic, maternal genetic, and residual effects were considered. Finally, for BW550, additive direct genetic and residual effects were considered. Estimates of direct heritability for BW120 were similar in all analyses; however, for the other traits, multi-trait analysis resulted in higher estimates. The maternal heritability and proportion of maternal permanent environmental variance to total variance were minimal in multi-trait analyses. Genetic, environmental, and phenotypic correlations were of high magnitude between all traits. Multi-trait analyses would aid in the parameter estimation for body weight at older ages because they are usually affected by a lower number of animals with phenotypic information due to culling and mortality.     

The Near Eastern origin of cat domestication

The world's domestic cats carry patterns of sequence variation in their genome that reflect a history of domestication and breed development. A genetic assessment of 979 domestic cats and their wild progenitors-Felis silvestris silvestris (European wildcat), F. s. lybica (Near Eastern wildcat), F. s. ornata (central Asian wildcat), F. s. cafra (southern African wildcat), and F. s. bieti (Chinese desert cat)-indicated that each wild group represents a distinctive subspecies of Felis silvestris. Further analysis revealed that cats were domesticated in the Near East, probably coincident with agricultural village development in the Fertile Crescent. Domestic cats derive from at least five founders from across this region, whose descendants were transported across the world by human assistance.     

Neutrino astrophysics: a new tool for exploring the universe

In the past four decades a new type of astronomy has emerged, where instead of looking up into the sky, "telescopes" are buried miles underground or deep under water or ice and search not for photons (that is, light), but rather for particles called neutrinos. Neutrinos are nearly massless particles that interact very weakly with matter. The detection of neutrinos emitted by the Sun and by a nearby supernova provided direct tests of the theory of stellar evolution and led to modifications of the standard model describing the properties of elementary particles. At present, several very large neutrino detectors are being constructed, aiming at the detection of the most powerful sources of energy and particles in the universe. The hope is that the detection of neutrinos from these sources, which are extra-Galactic and are most likely powered by mass accretion onto black holes, will not only allow study of the sources, but, much like solar neutrinos, will also provide new information about fundamental properties of matter.