Complex dynamics may limit prediction in marine fisheries

Complex nonlinear dynamics in marine fisheries create challenges for prediction and management, yet the extent to which they occur in fisheries is not well known. Using nonlinear forecasting models, we analysed over 200 time series of survey abundance and landings from two distinct ecosystems for patterns of dynamic complexity (dimensionality and nonlinear dynamics) and predictability. Differences in system dimensionality and nonlinear dynamics were associated with time series that reflected human intervention via fishing effort, implying the coupling between human and natural systems generated dynamics distinct from those detected in the natural resource subsystem alone. Estimated dimensionality was highest for landings and higher in abundance indices of unfished species than fished species. Fished species were more likely to display nonlinear dynamics than unfished species, and landings were significantly less predictable than abundance indices. Results were robust to variation in life history characteristics. Dynamics were predictable over a 1‐year time horizon in seventy percent of time series, but predictability declined exponentially over a 5‐year horizon. The ability to make predictions in fisheries systems is therefore extremely limited. To our knowledge, this is the first cross‐system comparative study, and the first at the scale of individual species, to analyse empirically the dynamic complexity observed in fisheries data and to quantify predictability broadly. We outline one application of short‐term forecasts to a precautionary approach to fisheries management that could improve how uncertainty and forecast error are incorporated into assessment through catch limit buffers.     

Micellization of bovine beta-casein studied by isothermal titration microcalorimetry and cryogenic transmission electron microscopy

The association behavior, critical micellization concentration (CMC), and enthalpy of demicellization (DeltaHdemic) of bovine beta-casein were studied, for the first time by isothermal titration calorimetry, in a pH 7.0 phosphate buffer with 0.1 ionic strength and in pure water. In the buffer solutions, the CMC decreased asymptotically from 0.15 to 0.006 mM as the temperature was raised from 16 to 45 degrees C. DeltaHdemic decreased with increasing temperature between 16 and 28 degrees C but increased from 28 to 45 degrees C. Thermodynamic analysis below 30 degrees C is consistent with the Kegeles shell model, which suggests a stepwise association process. At higher temperatures, this model exhibits limitations, and the micellization becomes much more cooperative. The CMC values in water, measured between 17 and 28 degrees C, decreased with increasing temperature and, expectedly, were higher than those found in the buffer solutions. beta-Casein micelles were visualized and characterized, for the first time in their hydrated state, using advanced digital-imaging cryogenic transmission electron microscopy. The images revealed small, oblate micelles, about approximately 13 nm in diameter. The micelles shape and dimensions remained nearly constant in the temperature range of 24-35 degrees C.     

Treatment time,ease of use and cost associated with use of Equashield™, PhaSeal®, or no closed system transfer device for administration of cancer chemotherapy to a dog model

This prospective experimental simulation study evaluated the efficiency, ease of use (EOU) and cost of administering chemotherapy with two closed system transfer devices (CSTD, Equashield? and PhaSeal^®) and no CSTD. Forty‐six veterinary technicians (VT) working in oncology specialty practices were timed during chemotherapy administration simulated with water and a model canine limb 10 times with each system and with no CSTD. EOU and likelihood of recommending each system were rated by VT using visual analog scales. Costs were obtained from veterinary distributors. Administration was fastest with Equashield? (P = 0.0003), but the difference was not enough to affect case flow. Equashield? was easier to use than PhaSeal^® or no CSTD (P = 0.002), however VT recommended both CSTD more strongly than no CSTD (P < 0.0001). Equashield? cost less than PhaSeal^® but was sold only in bulk quantities. CSTD did not decrease efficiency in administering chemotherapy and were readily accepted by VT.     

A survey on intestinal parasites of livestock guardian dogs and herding dogs in Switzerland

The present study describes the occurrence of intestinal parasite infections in livestock guardian dogs and herding dogs. A total of 71 guardian dogs (more than half of the total number of guardian dogs in Switzerland) and 21 herding dogs were coprologically examined, using a combined sedimentation-flotation method. In 21 (23 %) of the dogs intestinal parasites were detected, and 8 (8.7 %) of these dogs shed either sporocysts of Sarcocystis sp. (n = 6) or taeniid eggs (n = 2). The evaluation of questionnaires providing data on age, origin and deworming schemes of the dogs completed the study.     

A survey of bone integrity from cull sows in Ireland

The objective of this study was to examine the differences in sow metacarpal properties through various parities and to compare the incidence of locomotory problems between stalled and loose-housed sows. Metacarpals (n = 110) of sows from six farms were collected at slaughter and stored at -20°C. Bones from one forelimb of sows in stalls (n = 36) and loose-housed (n = 20) were collected and their articular surfaces examined for Osteochondrosis Dissecans (OCD), these sows were also scored for lameness pre-slaughter. Metacarpals were CT scanned for cross sectional area and moment of inertia. Cylindrical sections from the diaphysis were used for mechanical testing and calculating bone strength indices. The results show there was little change in bone mineral status throughout the range of parities examined and overall metacarpal integrity was not compromised by multiple production cycles. There were no differences detected in the incidence of lameness or joint pathology between housing systems.     

The structure of the upper atmosphere of mars: In situ accelerometer measurements from mars global surveyor

The Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) z-axis accelerometer has obtained over 200 vertical structures of thermospheric density, temperature, and pressure, ranging from 110 to 170 kilometers, compared to only three previous such vertical structures. In November 1997, a regional dust storm in the Southern Hemisphere triggered an unexpectedly large thermospheric response at mid-northern latitudes, increasing the altitude of thermospheric pressure surfaces there by as much as 8 kilometers and indicating a strong global thermospheric response to a regional dust storm. Throughout the MGS mission, thermospheric density bulges have been detected on opposite sides of the planet near 90 degreesE and 90 degreesW, in the vicinity of maximum terrain heights. This wave 2 pattern may be caused by topographically-forced planetary waves propagating up from the lower atmosphere.     

Improving estimates of population status and trend with superensemble models

Fishery managers must often reconcile conflicting estimates of population status and trend. Superensemble models, commonly used in climate and weather forecasting, may provide an effective solution. This approach uses predictions from multiple models as covariates in an additional “superensemble” model fitted to known data. We evaluated the potential for ensemble averages and superensemble models (ensemble methods) to improve estimates of population status and trend for fisheries. We fit four widely applicable data‐limited models that estimate stock biomass relative to equilibrium biomass at maximum sustainable yield (B/B_MSY). We combined these estimates of recent fishery status and trends in B/B_MSY with four ensemble methods: an ensemble average and three superensembles (a linear model, a random forest and a boosted regression tree). We trained our superensembles on 5,760 simulated stocks and tested them with cross‐validation and against a global database of 249 stock assessments. Ensemble methods substantially improved estimates of population status and trend. Random forest and boosted regression trees performed the best at estimating population status: inaccuracy (median absolute proportional error) decreased from 0.42 – 0.56 to 0.32 – 0.33, rank‐order correlation between predicted and true status improved from 0.02 – 0.32 to 0.44 – 0.48 and bias (median proportional error) declined from ?0.22 – 0.31 to ?0.12 – 0.03. We found similar improvements when predicting trend and when applying the simulation‐trained superensembles to catch data for global fish stocks. Superensembles can optimally leverage multiple model predictions; however, they must be tested, formed from a diverse set of accurate models and built on a data set representative of the populations to which they are applied.     

Post anesthetic myositis in the horse associated with in vitro malignant hyperthermia susceptibility

Four horses with clinical and biochemical evidence of post-operative myositis following halothane anesthesia and characterized by well localized (lumbar) to generalized rigidity and pain are described. Response to Dantrolene Sodium therapy at 4 mg/kg per os was dependent upon rapidity of administration following onset. In vitro exposure of muscle to halothane and caffeine revealed increased sensitivity when compared to control horses.     

Clinical vignette Fortuitous diagnosis of a persitent left cranial vena by color flow Doppler echocardiography in a dog

A persistent left cranial vena cava is described in an asymptomatic three-year-old female Shi Tzu. The purpose of this report is to show the value of color flow Doppler echocardiography in the diagnosis of this uncommon congenital cardiovasular abnormality.