A multivariable prognostic model for equine colic patients

A survey of 1965 equine colic cases was conducted from August 1985 to July 1986 ten equine referral hospitals located througout the U.S.A. Two-thirds of the cases were randomly selected for model development (1336), while the remaining cases (629) were used only for subsequent validation of the model. The following outcomes were defined: (1) died or killed prior to discharge from the hospital; or (2) alive at the time of discharge. Only variables which were significant (P<0.05) in an initial bivariate screening procedure and for which there were less than 400 missing values were considered in the multivariable modelling. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed using a stepwise algorithm. The model used 666 cases and included the following variables: peripheral pulse (normal or weak), pulse rate, surgical or medical treatment, packed cell volume, self-inflicted trauma (absent or present) and capillary refill time. For each horse in the validation data set which had the appropriate variables recorded (n=335), the estimated expected probability of death (expected value) was calculated using the logistic regression equation. Using Bayes theorem, the post-test probability was calculated from the expected value (an estimate of the test odds) and the present probability (the case-fatality rate at each institution). Nomograms of predictive values for different case-fatality rates and expected values were constructed. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics indicated that the model fitted the model data set well but the validation set poorly. However, when the observed case-fatality rates were compared with the average post-test probabilities for 0.10 increments of post-test probability, qualitatively, the model's performance was better.     

Nitrogen mineralization potential of dairy manures and its relationship to composition

The objectives of this study were to determine the variability in mineralization of dairy manure N, to determine if N mineralization can be predicted by compositional factors or by near- or mid-infrared reflectance spectroscopy. Dairy manures (n =107) were collected from farms in Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, and Connecticut. The composition of these manures ranged from 14 to 386 g dry matter kg^-1, 0.9 to 9.5 kg total N/m³, and 0.3 to 4.7 kg NH₄⁺-N/m³. Manure-amended soil was aerobically incubated at 25°C and concentrations of NH₄⁺-N and NO₃^--N were determined at day 2 and day 56. The manures were highly variable in their N mineralization characteristics, ranging from a net mineralization of 54.9% to a net immobilization of 29.2% of the organic N. When compositional parameters were individually regressed against percentage mineralized organic N, the highest correlation coefficient (r) was 0.164. A stepwise regression of all 11 variables yielded a maximal r of 0.486. These results suggest that the availability of dairy manure organic N is highly variable and that the availability cannot be predicted from simple compositional parameters. No relationship was found between near-infrared spectral characteristics and N mineralization suggesting that no simple relationship exists between N mineralization and compositional characteristics. There appears to be some potential for the use of mid-infrared for determining the mineralization potential of manures.     

Factors affecting abundance of bowhead whales Balaena mysticetus in the eastern arctic of North America, 1915–1980

The severely depleted bowhead whale Balaena mysticetus has failed to recover from overexploitation during the 18th and 19th centuries in the Eastern Arctic. Although commercial whaling for bowheads ended in this region about 1915, bowhead whaling by native people has continued until recently in parts of the Eastern Arctic. Low-level but persistent hunting by Inuit (Eskimos) may have inhibited bowhead population increase. Two natural mortality factors can be documented—ice entrapment and predation by killer whales Orcinus orca. There is little direct evidence of ice-related mortality but a strong circumstantial argument that ice conditions affect survival. Killer whales are known to prey on most species of large whales, and we believe bowhead whales and right whales Eubalaena glacialis are especially vulnerable. The bowhead's apparent failure to recover in the Eastern Arctic may be due to a combination of continued low-level hunting, habitat instability, and predation. Complete protection from all forms of hunting is necessary to ensure the bowhead's survival. Environmental disturbances due to industrial development in the Arctic may have direct and indirect impact on bowhead habitat and behaviour, creating an urgent need for further study.     

Evidence for Alfvén waves in solar x-ray jets

Coronal magnetic fields are dynamic, and field lines may misalign, reassemble, and release energy by means of magnetic reconnection. Giant releases may generate solar flares and coronal mass ejections and, on a smaller scale, produce x-ray jets. Hinode observations of polar coronal holes reveal that x-ray jets have two distinct velocities: one near the Alfvén speed ( approximately 800 kilometers per second) and another near the sound speed (200 kilometers per second). Many more jets were seen than have been reported previously; we detected an average of 10 events per hour up to these speeds, whereas previous observations documented only a handful per day with lower average speeds of 200 kilometers per second. The x-ray jets are about 2 x 10(3) to 2 x 10(4) kilometers wide and 1 x 10(5) kilometers long and last from 100 to 2500 seconds. The large number of events, coupled with the high velocities of the apparent outflows, indicates that the jets may contribute to the high-speed solar wind.     

Transpiration by Sudangrass as an Externally Controlled Process

Transpiration from a wellwatered sudangrass stand in a highly evaporative environment (Tempe, Arizona, in July) can be considerably increased by exposing a small plot of about I square meter to radiative and convective heat input. Thus, the transpiration of sudangrass in a full stand appears not to be determined by any physiological factor during any time of the day.     

A chromosome 21 critical region does not cause specific Down syndrome phenotypes

The "Down syndrome critical region" (DSCR) is a chromosome 21 segment purported to contain genes responsible for many features of Down syndrome (DS), including craniofacial dysmorphology. We used chromosome engineering to create mice that were trisomic or monosomic for only the mouse chromosome segment orthologous to the DSCR and assessed dysmorphologies of the craniofacial skeleton that show direct parallels with DS in mice with a larger segmental trisomy. The DSCR genes were not sufficient and were largely not necessary to produce the facial phenotype. These results refute specific predictions of the prevailing hypothesis of gene action in DS.