国际粮食市场价格风险评估研究

为探讨国际粮食市场价格风险管理,本研究构建了国际粮食市场价格风险评估的基本模型,建立国际粮食市场价格波动序列,拟合国际粮食市场价格波动概率分布和计算国际粮食市场的风险价值（VaR）。通过对国际大米、玉米、小麦和大豆市场价格风险的实证分析,结果表明：正态分布并不是国际粮食市场价格波动的最优概率分布模型,国际粮食市场价格波动表现为服从Lognormal、Log-logistic和Burr分布;就整体而言,国际粮食市场价格风险较为严重,上涨的风险要大于下跌的风险;就具体品种而言,国际大米的市场价格风险最大,其上涨和下跌的VaR分别达到69.23%和34.31%,远高于玉米、小麦和大豆。     

云南松蠹害林分动态变化研究

1996～2000年对滇中地区路南长湖及宜良小白龙两个云南松蠹害林区的各847株样树进行了跟踪调查．调查初期两样地在树木长势和蠹害程度上存在明显差异，长湖样地树木长势逊于小白龙，蠹害程度轻于小白龙．4年来两样地的蠹害发展极不一致．长湖样地云南松健康木比例下降12．6％；云南松受纵坑切梢小蠹蛀害致死466株，死亡率55．0％，蠹害未得到控制．小白龙样地云南松健康木比例增加29．7％；云南松受纵坑切梢小蠹蛀害致死219株，死亡率25．9％，蠹害有所控制．研究结果表明树木长势与蠹害发生及其程度直接相关，树木长势影响蠹害的发展过程，蠹害的发展制约树木长势的增强、     

农产品质量安全及其国际竞争力评价

此文分析了质量安全内涵及其与农产品国际竞争力之间的关系,总结了当前农产品国际竞争力中质量安全因素的评价方法,并以中国出口欧盟农产品为例,指出质量及安全是影响中国农产品国际竞争力状况的关键因素,为农产品质量安全及其国际竞争力的系统评价提供了可行的研究框架。     

基于耕地质量评价的鄱阳湖区耕地整理规划

区域耕地质量评价是耕地整理的基础工作,为耕地整理专项规划、耕地整理项目设计提供了科学依据。从耕地整理的基本要求出发,选取耕地自然条件和耕地利用条件2个基本因素,土层厚度、土壤质地、土壤有机质、土壤侵蚀、地形坡度、排灌状况、田间道路状况、田块规整度等8个影响因子,建立耕地质量评价指标体系。采用多因素综合评判法将环鄱阳湖区12县(市)的耕地分成4个等级,分析其空间分异特征,并结合各区域耕地质量主要限制因子,提出可行性耕地整理措施,为区域耕地整理宏观控制提供了一种新思路。     

林分结构变化对杉木人工林土壤水分影响的模拟

为了分析林分结构调控影响林地土壤水文动态过程,以浙西钱江源上游地区开化县林场城关分场施业区为研究对象,应用2010—2014年杉木纯林实测土壤水分数据对基于物理基础的一维水热耦合(SHAW)模型进行参数测定和验证,并分析杉木复层异龄林土壤水分变化和水量平衡特征。结果表明:杉木纯林土壤水分模拟值略高于实测值,两者的均方根误差、平均偏差和相对平均绝对误差分别为0.041、0.009和15.4%,模型总体上模拟精度较高。杉木复层异龄林比纯林年均土壤储水量(0~60 cm)增加9.4 mm,年均蒸散量增加36.4 mm,土壤水分深层渗漏量减少115.6 mm;纯林和复层林土壤水分的年变化量与地表径流量差异较小,分别为0.7、0.2 mm。因此,构建杉木复层异龄林可以增加土壤水库容量,更好地发挥森林水源涵养功能。     

干旱处理对澳洲坚果光合特性的影响

为探究澳洲坚果‘桂热1号’苗期对干旱的生理响应机制,研究该品种在持续干旱处理7 d的叶片含水量、光合色素含量、荧光参数、渗透调节物质和保护酶活性的变化规律。结果表明:随着干旱程度的增加,‘桂热1号’土壤含水量和叶片含水量均呈逐渐下降趋势,在断水7 d最为明显。干旱导致‘桂热1号’叶绿素含量显著下降,但胡萝卜素含量先升后降。光合速率在断水5和7 d下降明显,伴随着活性氧清除酶活性下降。表明,‘桂热1号’对干旱的自身调控能维持5 d。     

铝盐絮凝天然橡胶制备及其性能表征

采用铝盐絮凝天然胶乳,探讨所得生胶的理化性能、硫化特性及其动态力学性能与传统凝固方法之间的差异.结果表明:通过氯化铝与盐酸溶液的互配,能够获得理化性能指标均达标的生胶产品;氯化铝与盐酸混合溶液凝固胶的拉伸强度较高;铝离子的存在有利于提高天然橡胶的加工安全性,使天然橡胶的损耗因子和损耗模量略有升高,但其储能模量降低.通过红外光谱可以看出,铝盐凝固胶蛋白质的特征吸收峰比酸凝固的弱.     

群体改良面包小麦品质性状的方法与技术

为了探讨分子标记技术用于太谷核不育小麦(Ta1)轮回选择育种的可行性,广泛搜集含有不同优质亚基且农艺性状优良的种质资源,对创建动态的改良面包小麦品质优质基因库进行了研究。结果表明,5亚基特异PCR标记在具有5亚基的单株中均能扩增出450bp的基因片段,生化标记与其结果一致;通过控制授粉引入优质基因,开花前淘汰劣质基因型,借助于可育株与不育株的异交,使优质基因重组、累加和聚合,获得了14 15、5 10亚基的聚合体和5 12等亚基的稀有类型;与基础群体比,轮选群体的单株产量增加1.0~1.5g,株高降低7.5cm,使品质、产量得到同步改良,从而建立了分子标记辅助Ta1小麦改良品质性状的优质基因库。     

Long-term changes in land use impact the accumulation of microbial residues in the particle-size fractions of a Mollisol

To test the impact of a range of long-term land use types on the partitioning of microbial residues among soil particles, samples from a Mollisol with plots under 100 years of continuous arable cropping, 30 years of simulated overgrazing to severely degraded bare soil, or 30 years of grassland restoration were investigated. The microbial residues, which were assessed among three particle-size fractions (<2, 2–20, and 20–250 μm) by amino sugar extraction, exhibited change with particle size and land use. Converting arable cropping to bare soil induced substantial depletion of amino sugars associated with the clay-size fraction, as a proportion of total carbon (C) and total soil mass, but not the silt- and sand-size fractions. Alternatively, switching arable soil to grassland increased amino sugar stocks in both the clay- and sand-size fractions. Analysis of the relative input of fungal and bacterial derived amino sugars indicated that fungal sources are the most dynamic with respect to land use change. These results highlight the selective vulnerability of microbial C pools in finer fractions under low plant C input and the selective recovery in specific fractions upon restoration, emphasizing the importance of the conversion of plant organic matter into mineral-associated microbial residues to promote stable soil organic C.     

Partitioning characteristics of PAHs between sediment and water in a shallow lake

Goal, Scope and Background

Distribution of hydrophobic organic contaminants in abiotic compartments is essential for describing their transfer and fate in aquatic ecosystems. Taihu Lake is the third largest freshwater lake in China. Water quality of Taihu Lake has deteriorated greatly during the last decades and has threatened the water supply. The aim of the present study was to investigate the partitioning of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) among overlying water, suspended particulate matter (SPM), sediments, and pore water in Meiliang Bay, Taihu Lake and to provide useful information for the ecological engineering in this area.

Materials and Methods

Overlying water and surface sediment were sampled from six sites in Meiliang Bay, Taihu Lake, China. Within 72 h of sampling, sediments were centrifuged to obtain the pore water. Overlying water samples were filtered to separate dissolved and SPM samples. After extraction, samples were purified following a clean-up procedure. PAH fraction was obtained by elution with a mixture of hexane: DCM (7:3, V/V) and analyzed by GC/MS.

Results

PAHs concentrations in overlying water varied from 37.5 ng/L to 183.5 ng/L. Concentrations of PAHs in pore water were higher than those in overlying water. The total concentrations of 16 priority PAHs in sediments ranged from 2091.8 ng/g-dw to 4094.4 ng/g-dw. PAHs concentrations on SPM were decreased with suspended solid concentrations (SSC). Total PAHs concentrations on SPM varied in the range of 3369.6 ng/g-dw to 7531.1 ng/g-dw. The partition coefficients between sediment and overlying water (log K _oc) for PAHs with log K _ow<5 were positively correlated with their octanol-water partition coefficients (log K _ow) (n=39, r=0.79, p<0.0001). Partition coefficients between sediment and pore water (log K _oc′) for all PAHs were also significantly correlated with their log K _ow values (n=48, r=0.82, p<0.0001).

Discussion

In general, PAHs derived from combustion sources tend to bind strongly to soot particles in natural sediment. Consequentially, K _oc values observed in the natural environment could be orders of magnitude higher than those predicted by linear correlation relationships under laboratory conditions. In the present study, the ratio of log K _oc values to log K _ow values falls consistently above 1, indicating that the sediment soot carbon in the bay was more attractive for PAHs than n-octanol. The log K _oc′ was also higher than that predicted under laboratory conditions, suggesting that the measured pore water PAH concentrations were lower than those predicted. That is to say, not all the sediment PAHs can be available to partition rapidly into sediment pore waters. A variation in soot content is a possible reason. Furthermore, concentrations of PAHs on SPM were higher than those in sediments. The compositions of PAHs on SPM and in sediments were similar, indicating the importance of re-suspension process of sediments in the partitioning process of the shallow lake.

Conclusions

The results indicated the equilibrium partitioning model could be used to predict PAHs distribution in various phases of a shallow lake in the stagnation period, but re-suspension processes should be considered to modify the relationship between log K _ocs and log K _ows.

Recommendations and Perspectives

Concentration, particle size and composition of resuspended particles could affect the relationship between log K _ocs and log K _ows. Further work should be done under field conditions, especially where a steady thermodynamic equilibrium state could be assumed.