A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models,and a knowledge-based scoring system

Context

No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates—hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns.

Objective

A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model—DISTRIB II, a species colonization model—SHIFT, and knowledge-based scoring system—MODFACs, to illustrate a decision support framework.

Methods

Using shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum) as examples, we project suitable habitats under two future climate change scenarios (harsh, Hadley RCP8.5 and mild CCSM RCP4.5 at ~2100) at a resolution of 10 km and assess the colonization likelihood of the projected suitable habitats at a 1 km resolution; and score biological and disturbance factors for interpreting modeled outcomes.

Results

Shortleaf pine shows increased habitat northward by 2100, especially under the harsh scenario of climate change, and with higher possibility of natural migration confined to a narrow region close to the current species range boundary. Sugar maple shows decreased habitat and has negligible possibility of migration within the US due to a large portion of its range being north of the US border. Combination of suitable habitats with colonization likelihoods also allows for identification of potential locations appropriate for assisted migration, should that be deemed feasible.

Conclusion

The combination of these multiple components using diverse approaches leads to tools and products that may help managers make management decisions in the face of a changing climate.

     

Agent-based land-use models: a review of applications

Agent-based modelling is an approach that has been receiving attention by the land use modelling community in recent years, mainly because it offers a way of incorporating the influence of human decision-making on land use in a mechanistic, formal, and spatially explicit way, taking into account social interaction, adaptation, and decision-making at different levels. Specific advantages of agent-based models include their ability to model individual decision-making entities and their interactions, to incorporate social processes and non-monetary influences on decision-making, and to dynamically link social and environmental processes. A number of such models are now beginning to appear—it is timely, therefore, to review the uses to which agent-based land use models have been put so far, and to discuss some of the relevant lessons learnt, also drawing on those from other areas of simulation modelling, in relation to future applications. In this paper, we review applications of agent-based land use models under the headings of (a) policy analysis and planning, (b) participatory modelling, (c) explaining spatial patterns of land use or settlement, (d) testing social science concepts and (e) explaining land use functions. The greatest use of such models so far has been by the research community as tools for organising knowledge from empirical studies, and for exploring theoretical aspects of particular systems. However, there is a need to demonstrate that such models are able to solve problems in the real world better than traditional modelling approaches. It is concluded that in terms of decision support, agent-based land-use models are probably more useful as research tools to develop an underlying knowledge base which can then be developed together with end-users into simple rules-of-thumb, rather than as operational decision support tools. This paper arises from research conducted as part of the UK Research Councils’ RELU Programme (award number RES-224-25-0102). RELU is funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council, the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and the Natural Environment Research Council, with additional funding from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Scottish Executive Environment and Rural Affairs Department.     

Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

A comparative study of young ‘Thompson Seedless’ grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.) under drip and furrow irrigation. II. Growth, water use efficiency and nitrogen partitioning

The response of 3-year-old grapevines (Vitis vinifera L. cultivar ‘Thompson Seedless’) to furrow and drip irrigation was quantified in terms of water status, growth, and water use efficiency (WUE). Drip irrigation was applied daily according to best estimates of vineyard evapotranspiration while furrow irrigations were applied when 50% of the plant available soilwater content had been depleted. Drip and furrow irrigated vines showed similar water status (midday leaf water potential, Ψ₁) and shoot growth patterns throughout the season. Dry weight partitioning was not significantly different between treatments but root mass was somewhat larger for the furrow than drip irrigated vines. Nitrogen concentrations of the fruit and roots were significantly (P < 0.05) less for the drip irrigated vines when compared with the furrow treatment. Similar WUE (kg water kg⁻¹ fresh fruit wt.) were obtained for both treatments indicating that furrow irrigation was as efficient as drip irrigation under the conditions of this study. The data indicate that drip irrigation may increase the potential for control of vine growth by making vines more dependent on irrigation and N fertilization than furrow irrigation.     

Modeling the invasive emerald ash borer risk of spread using a spatially explicit cellular model

The emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis) is decimating native ashes (Fraxinus sp.) throughout midwestern North America, killing millions of trees over the years. With plenty of ash available throughout the continent, the spread of this destructive insect is likely to continue. We estimate that the insect has been moving along a “front” at about 20 km/year since about 1998, but more alarming is its long-range dispersal into new locations facilitated by human activities. We describe a spatially explicit cell-based model used to calculate risk of spread in Ohio, by combining the insect’s flight and short-range dispersal (“insect flight”) with human-facilitated, long-range dispersal (“insect ride”). This hybrid model requires estimates of EAB abundance, ash abundance, major roads and traffic density, campground size and usage, distance from the core infested zone, wood products industry size and type of wood usage, and human population density. With the “insect flight” model, probability of movement is dependent on EAB abundance in the source cells, the quantity of ash in the target cells, and the distances between them. With the “insect-ride” model, we modify the value related to ash abundance based on factors related to potential human-assisted movements of EAB-infested ash wood or just hitchhiking insects. We attempt to show the advantage of our model compared to statistical approaches and to justify its practical value to field managers working with imperfect knowledge. We stress the importance of the road network in distributing insects to new geographically dispersed sites in Ohio, where 84% were within 1 km of a major highway.     

Repetitive propofol administration in dogs and cats

A bolus of propofol was administered to 10 dogs (6 mg/kg intravenously [IV]) and 10 cats (10 mg/kg IV) on three consecutive days. The occurrence of apnea, heart and respiratory rates, blood pressure, time to movement, and changes in a complete blood count and biochemical profile were recorded. Apnea was not seen in the dogs but was seen in three cats. Slight increases in the number of Heinz bodies were seen in six cats, but the increases were not considered clinically significant. No apparent cumulative adverse effects were seen from a bolus of bisulfite-containing propofol, administered on three consecutive days.     

Common helminth infections of donkeys and their control in temperate regions

Roundworms and flatworms that affect donkeys can cause disease. All common helminth parasites that affect horses also infect donkeys, so animals that co‐graze can act as a source of infection for either species. Of the gastrointestinal nematodes, those belonging to the cyathostomin (small strongyle) group are the most problematic in UK donkeys. Most grazing animals are exposed to these parasites and some animals will be infected all of their lives. Control is threatened by anthelmintic resistance: resistance to all 3 available anthelmintic classes has now been recorded in UK donkeys. The lungworm, Dictyocaulus arnfieldi, is also problematical, particularly when donkeys co‐graze with horses. Mature horses are not permissive hosts to the full life cycle of this parasite, but develop clinical signs on infection. In contrast, donkeys are permissive hosts without displaying overt clinical signs and act as a source of infection to co‐grazing horses. Donkeys are also susceptible to the fluke, Fasciola hepatica. This flatworm can be transmitted, via snails and the environment, from ruminants. As with cyathostomins, anthelmintic resistance is increasing in fluke populations in the UK. A number of the anthelmintic products available for horses do not have a licence for use in donkeys, and this complicates the design of parasite control programmes. As no new equine anthelmintic classes appear to be near market, it is important that the efficacy of currently effective drugs is maintained. It is important that strategies are used that attempt to preserve anthelmintic efficacy. These strategies should be based on the concept that the proportion of worms in a population not exposed to anthelmintic at each treatment act as a source of ‘refugia’. The latter is an important factor in the rate at which resistance develops. Thus, it is imperative that parasite control programmes take into account the need to balance therapy to control helminth‐associated disease with the requirement to preserve anthelmintic effectiveness.     

Effects of betaine on growth, carcass characteristics, pork quality, and plasma metabolites of finishing pigs

An experiment was conducted to determine the effect of dietary betaine (0, 0.125, 0.250, or 0.500%) on growth, carcass traits, pork quality, plasma metabolites, and tissue betaine concentrations of cross-bred finishing pigs. Four replications of three pigs (two barrows and one gilt) each were used for each treatment. The basal diet contained 0.85 (69 to 88 kg BW) or 0.65% Lys (88 to 115 kg BW). Overall ADG and gain:feed were not affected (P > 0.10) by betaine, but overall ADFI was decreased (quadratic, P < 0.05; 0 vs betaine, P < 0.01) by betaine; pigs fed 0.250% betaine had the lowest ADFI. Loin muscle area, average back-fat, dressing percentage, percentage lean, total fat, lean:fat, and leaf fat weight were not affected (P > 0.10) by betaine. Tenth-rib backfat thickness was decreased (quadratic, P < 0.05; 0 vs betaine, P < 0.05); pigs fed 0.250% betaine had the lowest 10th-rib backfat thickness. Carcass length was increased (linear, P < 0.05; 0 vs betaine, P < 0.10) as the level of betaine was increased. Fat-free lean, lean gain per day, ham weight, ham fat-free lean, and ham percentage lean were increased (quadratic, P < 0.10), but percentage fat, total ham fat, percentage ham fat, and butt-fat thickness were decreased (quadratic, P < 0.10); these traits were respectively highest or lowest in pigs fed 0.250% betaine. Thaw loss and 24-h pH were increased (quadratic, P < 0.10; 0 vs betaine, P < 0.05) and cook loss was decreased (linear, P < 0.05) in pigs fed betaine. The CIE L* value for the biceps femoris was decreased (quadratic, P < 0.10; 0 vs betaine, P < 0.10); pigs fed 0.250% betaine had the lowest CIE L* value. Subjective color, firmness-wetness, marbling, percentage moisture and bound water of the loin muscle, and shear force were not affected (P > 0.10) by betaine. Betaine was not detectable (< 0.07 mg/g) in the loin muscle of pigs fed 0% betaine, but betaine was detectable and relatively constant in pigs fed 0.125, 0.250, or 0.500% betaine (0.22, 0.17, and 0.21 mg/g, respectively). Plasma urea N, total protein, albumin, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol concentrations were not affected (P > 0.10). Plasma total cholesterol (linear, P < 0.10) and NEFA (quadratic, P < 0.10) were increased in pigs fed betaine. Betaine improved carcass traits when provided at 0.250% of the diet and improved some aspects of pork quality.     

Postoperative ultrasonographic appearance of uncomplicated enterotomy or enterectomy sites in dogs

The ultrasonographic findings in 20 dogs with 25 healing enterotomy and enterectomy sites resulting from the removal of foreign material or correction of intussusceptions are presented. In this prospective study, dogs had preoperative abdominal ultrasound examinations followed by sequential sonographic examinations on the first, third, sixth, and 10th days postenterotomy or enterectomy with an additional sonographic examination after 20 days postoperatively. Documented sonographic features included length and maximal intestinal wall thickness of the enterotomy or enterectomy sites, echogenicity of omental/mesenteric fat, amount of free gas and abdominal effusion, and gastrointestinal motility. Sonographically, 57% of enterotomies and 100% of enterectomies were visualized. Pneumoperitoneum, hyperechoic omental/mesenteric fat, and abdominal effusion did not appreciably hamper evaluation of the intestinal surgical site. Absent wall layering at the surgical site was noted in 96% of dogs at day 1 postoperatively. At the final sonographic examination, wall layering remained altered to absent in 100% of dogs and normal thickness was noted in only 20% of dogs. The median maximal wall thickness was 7 and 8 mm for enterotomies and enterectomies respectively, which occurred between days 1 and 3 and days 3 and 6 postoperatively. Effusion and increased echogenicity of omental/mesenteric fat localized to the surgical site were noted in 42% and 60% of dogs respectively at day 1 postoperatively, with resolution noted between days 3 and 10 postoperatively in 92% and 80% of dogs. Generalized abdominal effusion and pneumoperitoneum were seen in 100% of dogs immediately postoperatively and resolved in 80% by day 10.