Bayesian methods for estimating pathogen prevalence within groups of animals from faecal-pat sampling

Pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter spp. have been implicated in outbreaks of food poisoning in the UK and elsewhere. Domestic animals and wildlife are important reservoirs for both of these agents, and cross-contamination from faeces is believed to be responsible for many human outbreaks. Appropriate parameterisation of quantitative microbial-risk models requires representative data at all levels of the food chain. Our focus in this paper is on the early stages of the food chain-specifically, sampling issues which arise at the farm level. We estimated animal–pathogen prevalence from faecal-pat samples using a Bayesian method which reflected the uncertainties inherent in the animal-level prevalence estimates. (Note that prevalence here refers to the percentage of animals shedding the bacteria of interest). The method offers more flexibility than traditional, classical approaches: it allows the incorporation of prior belief, and permits the computation of a variety of distributional and numerical summaries, analogues of which often are not available through a classical framework. The Bayesian technique is illustrated with a number of examples reflecting the effects of a diversity of assumptions about the underlying processes. The technique appears to be both robust and flexible, and is useful when defecation rates in infected and uninfected groups are unequal, where population size is uncertain, and also where the microbiological-test sensitivity is imperfect. We also investigated the determination of the sample size necessary for determining animal-level prevalence from pat samples to within a pre-specified degree of accuracy.     

Effect of tilmicosin on chemotactic, phagocytic, and bactericidal activities of bovine and porcine alveolar macrophages

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate chemotactic, phagocytic, and bactericidal activities of bovine and porcine alveolar macrophages (AM) exposed to tilmicosin. ANIMALS: 12 healthy calves and 12 healthy pigs. PROCEDURES: Lungs were obtained immediately after euthanasia; AM were collected by means of bronchoalveolar lavage and density gradient centrifugation. Chemotactic activity was evaluated by exposing AM to lipopolysaccharide or macrophage inhibitory peptide during incubation with tilmicosin. Phagocytic activity was evaluated by incubating AM with tilmicosin for 24 hours and then with tilmicosin-resistant Salmonella serotype Typhimurium. Bactericidal activity was evaluated by incubating AM with tilmicosin (0, 10, or 20 microg/ml for bovine AM; 0 or 10 microg/ml or 10 microg/ml but washed free of tilmicosin for porcine AM) and then with Mannheimia haemolytica (bovine AM) or with Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae or Pasteurella multocida (porcine AM). RESULTS: Tilmicosin had no significant effects on chemotactic or phagocytic activities of bovine or porcine AM. The time-course of bactericidal activity was best described by polynomial equations. Time to cessation of bacterial growth and area under the time versus bacterial number curve were significantly affected by incubation of AM with tilmicosin. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results show that bactericidal activity of bovine and porcine AM was enhanced by tilmicosin, but not in proportion to the reported ability of AM to concentrate tilmicosin intracellularly. With or without exposure to tilmicosin, the time-course of bactericidal activity of bovine AM against M haemolytica and of porcine AM against A pleuropneumoniae or P multocida was too complex to be reduced to a simple linear equation.