Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries

Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect uncertainty about model structure, an issue of increasing importance as ecosystem models are devised to support the move to an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). This paper sets out pragmatic approaches with which to account for uncertainties in model structure and we review current ways of dealing with this issue in fisheries and other disciplines. All involve considering a set of alternative models representing different structural assumptions, but differ in how those models are used. The models can be asked to identify bounds on possible outcomes, find management actions that will perform adequately irrespective of the true model, find management actions that best achieve one or more objectives given weights assigned to each model, or formalize hypotheses for evaluation through experimentation. Data availability is likely to limit the use of approaches that involve weighting alternative models in an ecosystem setting, and the cost of experimentation is likely to limit its use. Practical implementation of an EAF should therefore be based on management approaches that acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in model predictions and are robust to it. Model results must be presented in ways that represent the risks and trade‐offs associated with alternative actions and the degree of uncertainty in predictions. This presentation should not disguise the fact that, in many cases, estimates of model uncertainty may be based on subjective criteria. The problem of model uncertainty is far from unique to fisheries, and a dialogue among fisheries modellers and modellers from other scientific communities will therefore be helpful.     

Glugea heraldi n. sp. (Microsporida, Glugeidae) from the seahorse Hippocampus erectus Perry

Abstract. A new species of Microsporida, Glugea heraldi , is described from the seahorse Hippocampus erectus . Measurements of fixed spores and notes on the histopathology of parasitized tissue are given.     

DROUGHT STRESS: Soil Water Availability Alters the Inter‐ and Intra‐Cultivar Competition of Three Spring Wheat Cultivars Bred in Different Eras

Competition for water generates a classic aspect of the tragedy of the commons, the ‘race for fish’, where crops must allocate more resource to acquisition of the limiting resource than is optimal for crop yield allocation. A pot experiment using a simple additive (target–neighbour) design was conducted to examine the above‐ground and below‐ground growth of three spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars when grown alone and in mixtures at three levels of water availability. The effects of competition and water availability were compared by observing patterns of growth, biomass allocation and below‐ground outcomes. Competitive interactions were investigated among cultivars ‘HST’, ‘GY602’ and ‘LC8275’, target plant of each cultivar grown without neighbouring plants are referred to herein as control plant and one target plant of each cultivar sown surrounded either by same or another cultivar as intra‐ or inter‐cultivar competition. Competitive ability was assessed as the response ratio (lnRR) between the target plant surrounded by six other plants and the target plant in isolation. Our results showed that the cultivar ‘HST’, released over a century ago, produced a higher biomass and grain yield than the more recently released cultivars ‘LC8275’ and ‘GY602’ when grown as isolated plants with sufficient water supply. However, competition for resources from neighbours led to target plant biomass and grain yield being significantly reduced relative to controls in all three cultivars, particularly in ‘HST’. When subjected to intra‐cultivar competition, the two recently released cultivars ‘LC8275’ and ‘GY602’ had higher grain yields and water use efficiency for grain than ‘HST’ in all three water regimes. The landrace ‘HST’ had better and significantly linear relationships between biomass and biomass allocation, root length and specific root length, whereas the recent and modern cultivars had much more water‐related species‐specific changes in root morphology and allocation patterns. These results suggest that crop traits that influence competitive ability, such as biomass allocation to roots and root plasticity in response to drought have changed in modern wheat cultivars because of breeding and selection.     

Co-incorporation of biodegradable wastes with crop residues to reduce nitrate pollution of groundwater and decrease waste disposal to landfill

Return of high nitrogen (N) content crop residues to soil, particularly in autumn, can result in environmental pollution resulting from gaseous and leaching losses of N. The EU Landfill Directive will require significant reductions in the amounts of biodegradable materials going to landfill. A field experiment was set up to examine the potential of using biodegradable waste materials to manipulate losses of N from high N crop residues in the soil. Leafy residues of sugar beet were co‐incorporated into soil with materials of varying C:N ratios, including molasses, compactor waste, paper waste, green waste compost and cereal straw. The amendment materials were each incorporated to provide approximately 3.7 t C per hectare. The most effective material for reducing nitrous oxide (N₂O) production and leaching loss of NO₃^? was compactor waste, which is the final product from the recycling of cardboard. Adding molasses increased N₂O and NO₃^? leaching losses. Six months following incorporation of residues, the double rate application of compactor waste decreased soil mineral N by 36 kg N per hectare, and the molasses increased soil mineral N by 47 kg N per hectare. Compactor waste reduced spring barley grain yield by 73% in the first of years following incorporation, with smaller losses at the second harvest. At the first harvest, molasses and paper waste increased yields of spring barley by 20 and 10% compared with sugar beet residues alone, and the enhanced yield persisted to the second harvest. The amounts of soil mineral N in the spring and subsequent yields of a first cereal crop were significantly correlated to the lignin and cellulose contents of the amendment materials. Yield was reduced by 0.3–0.4 t/ha for every 100 mg/g increase in cellulose or lignin content. In a second year, cereal yield was still reduced and related to the cellulose content of the amendment materials but with one quarter of the effect. Additional fertilizer applied to this second crop did not relieve this effect. Although amendment materials were promising as tools to reduce N losses, further work is needed to reduce the negative effects on subsequent crops which was not removed by applying 60 kg/ha of fertilizer N.     

Association of double-stranded RNA with whitefly-mediated silvering in squash

A disorder of unknown aetiology appearing as silvering on squash (Cucurbita pepo) leaves has become prevalent in south Florida. Typical symptoms, observed after 2 weeks of exposure to adults of Bemisia tabaci , the sweet potato whitefly (SPWF) include vein clearing followed by silvering of whole leaves. Fruits from affected plants are blanched or streaked longitudinally. The silverleaf syndrome was not mechanically transmissible when crude extracts of symptomatic leaves were used as inoculum. Two sizes of double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) of c. 4.6 and 4.2 kilobase pairs (kbp) were consistently observed in leaf extracts of caged, whitefly-infested, symptomatic plants. In contrast, caged plants not exposed to whiteflies showed no symptoms and contained no detectable dsRN A. In addition, squash plants exposed to SPWF colonies from California neither developed silverleaf symptoms nor contained any dsRNA. Double-stranded RNA could also be readily detected in whitefly-infested yellow summer squash and zucchini from the field. However, asymptomatic eggplant and watermelon infested with SPWF from nearby fields did not contain detectable dsRNA. Dot-spot hybridization assays using an RNA-specific probe detected homologous sequences in both adults and nymphs of SPWF that induced silverleaf symptoms but not in adults and nymphs of SPWF that could not induce silverleaf symptoms. These results, along with the non-endogenous nature of the detected dsRNA suggest that the dsRNA is or is associated with the causal agent of whitefly-mediated leaf silvering in squash.     

Cutaneous metastases of a mammary carcinoma in a llama

An 8-year-old, female llama was evaluated for nonhealing, ulcerative, cutaneous lesions, which also involved the mammary gland. Biopsies of the lesions distant from and within the mammary gland area revealed an aggressive carcinoma. The tumor was confirmed at necropsy to be a mammary gland adenocarcinoma with cutaneous metastasis.