A model of the decision‐support scheme for express pest risk analysis using a Bayesian network implemented in Excel

A model was developed to accompany the EPPO decision support scheme for express pest risk analysis (PRA) and provide a calculated overall risk and uncertainty for the PRA and so act as a reference for the judgement of overall risk and uncertainty provided by expert working groups. Implemented in Excel, it is readily accessible to PRA practitioners and offers: (a) a consistent and explained weighting of the different risk factors and a rationale for the way they are combined, (b) a calculated integration of the risk factor distributions to facilitate judgement of overall uncertainty, and (c) an account of the interaction between the rating and the uncertainty score so that, for example, an overall rating of moderate is not necessarily used to reflect uncertainty about assessments in which the risk is neither obviously high nor low. Of the nine published express PRAs examined, the rating and uncertainty predicted by the model were: in agreement with five; differed in both rating and uncertainty in one case; differed in rating only in one case; and differed in uncertainty only in two cases. Possible reasons for these differences were examined and the interpretation of model results to inform assessments is discussed.     

Harvesting of logging residues affects diameter growth and pine weevil attacks on Norway spruce seedlings

Removal of logging residues causes significant nutrient losses from the harvesting site. Furthermore, collection of residues into piles could lead to small-scale differences in establishment conditions for seedlings. We studied the effects of stem-only (SOH) and aboveground whole-tree harvesting (WTH) on Norway spruce (Picea abies) seedling growth and pine weevil (Hylobius abietis) damage at two sites (SE and W Norway). We also compared two planting environments within the WTH plots (WTH-0: areas with no residues, WTH-1: areas where residue piles had been placed and removed before planting). In practice, one-third of the residues were left on site after WTH. After three growing seasons there were no differences for height or diameter increment between SOH and WTH (WTH-1 and WTH-0 combined) treatments. However, relative diameter increment was largest for WTH-1 seedlings and lowest for WTH-0 seedlings. Few seedlings sustained pine weevil attacks at the W Norway site, with no differences among treatments. At the SE Norway site, the percent of seedlings damaged by pine weevils and average debarked area were significantly higher after WTH (82% and 3.3?cm²) compared to SOH (62% and 1.7?cm²). We conclude that WTH may lead to spatial differences in establishment conditions.     

Properties of thermoplastic composites with cotton and guayule biomass residues as fiber fillers

This study was conducted to evaluate the suitability of using residual plant fibers from agricultural waste streams as reinforcement in thermoplastic composites. Three groups of plant fibers evaluated included cotton burrs, sticks and linters from cotton gin waste (CGW), guayule whole plant, and guayule bagasse. The plant fibers were characterized for physical (bulk density and particle size distribution) and chemical properties (ash, lignin and cellulose contents). A laboratory experiment was designed with five fiber filler treatments, namely control (oak wood fiber as the filler - OWF), cotton burr and sticks (CBS), CBS with 2% (by weight) second cut linters (CBL), CBS with 30% (by weight) guayule whole plant (CGP), and CBS with 30% (by weight) guayule bagasse (CGB). The composite samples were manufactured with 50% of fiber filler, 40% of virgin high-density polyethylene (HDPE), and 10% other additives by weight. The samples were extruded to approximately 32 × 7 mm cross-sectional profiles, and tested for physico-mechanical properties. The CBS and CBL had considerably lower bulk density than the other fibers. Cotton linters had the highest α-cellulose (66.6%), and lowest hemicellulose (15.8%) and lignin (10.5%) of all fibers tested. Guayule whole plant had the lowest α-cellulose and highest ash content. Both CBS and guayule bagasse contained α-cellulose comparable to OWF, but slightly lower hemicellulose. Evaluation of composite samples made from the five fiber treatments indicated that fibers from cotton gin byproducts and guayule byproducts reduced the specific gravity of the composites significantly. However, the CBS and CBL samples exhibited high water absorption and thickness swelling, but the addition of guayule bagasse reduced both properties to similar levels as the wood fiber. The CGP exhibited significantly lower coefficient of thermal expansion. Composite samples with the five different fiber fillers showed similar hardness and nail holding capacity, yet oak fibers imparted superior strength and modulus under flexure and compression with the exception of the compressive modulus of CGB composites. In general, both cotton ginning and guayule processing byproducts hold great potential as fiber fillers in thermoplastic composites.     

Hydrogen radicals, nitrogen radicals, and the production of O3 in the upper troposphere

The concentrations of the hydrogen radicals OH and HO2 in the middle and upper troposphere were measured simultaneously with those of NO, O3, CO, H2O, CH4, non-methane hydrocarbons, and with the ultraviolet and visible radiation field. The data allow a direct examination of the processes that produce O3 in this region of the atmosphere. Comparison of the measured concentrations of OH and HO2 with calculations based on their production from water vapor, ozone, and methane demonstrate that these sources are insufficient to explain the observed radical concentrations in the upper troposphere. The photolysis of carbonyl and peroxide compounds transported to this region from the lower troposphere may provide the source of HOx required to sustain the measured abundances of these radical species. The mechanism by which NO affects the production of O3 is also illustrated by the measurements. In the upper tropospheric air masses sampled, the production rate for ozone (determined from the measured concentrations of HO2 and NO) is calculated to be about 1 part per billion by volume each day. This production rate is faster than previously thought and implies that anthropogenic activities that add NO to the upper troposphere, such as biomass burning and aviation, will lead to production of more O3 than expected.     

Heat tolerance of Boran and Tuli crossbred steers.

Experiments were conducted to evaluate the heat tolerance of the following breeds: Hereford (H), Brahman (B), H x B, H x Boran (H x Bo), and H x Tuli (H x T). Heat tolerance was evaluated in a climatically controlled room (Exp. 1) and under summer environmental conditions (Exp. 2) by comparing rectal temperatures (RT), respiration rates (RR), and sweating rates (SW). In Exp. 1, under extremely hot conditions (mean temperature-humidity index [THI] > 90), purebred B had significantly (P < .05) lower RT and RR than other genotypes, which may be indicative of greater surface area per mass to dissipate heat and a lower metabolic rate than other genotypes. Boran and Tuli crosses had RT (39.5 degrees C) that were intermediate to those of B (39.0 degrees C) and H x B (40.0 degrees C). The H genotype had the greatest RT at 40.3 degrees C. Among the breeds, trends in RR were similar to RR observed at THI < 77; B had the lowest RR, and H x B were intermediate. However, in these extreme conditions, RR did not differ among the purebred H and the Boran and Tuli crossbred steers, but H x B steers had lower RR than the other H crossbred steers. Sweating rates were significantly greater for the Bos indicus x Bos taurus crosses (H x B and H x Bo) than for the purebred genotypes (H and B) and the Bos taurus cross (H x T). In Exp. 2, mean RT for B, H x B, H x Bo, and H x T were very similar to those recorded under the moderate heat stress conditions found in Exp. 1. There were no differences in RT among B, H x Bo, and H x T genotypes. The RR increased over time for H only, and RR for other genotypes tended to be elevated only slightly over time. Among genotypes, SW was significantly greater for the H x Bo steers. The ability of the Bos indicus crosses to dissipate heat through enhanced SW and associated evaporative cooling was evident. However, the heat-tolerant nature of the Bos taurus cross (H x T) was not evident through enhanced RR or SW in either experiment. Compared with other genotypes, the lower RR of B steers was clearly evident and is assumed to be due to greater surface area and other skin characteristics that allow them to dissipate heat to maintain lower RT. These data suggest that the H x Bo and H x T are similar to H x B and intermediate to H and B genotypes in maintaining homeostasis when exposed to a high heat load.     

Transanal endoscopic treatment of benign canine rectal tumours: preliminary results in six cases (1992 to 1996)

Transanal endoscopic resection and cautery of benign rectal tumours was performed in six dogs with extensive and/or inaccessible rectal neoplasia. The results were encouraging, with three dogs cured and the quality of life of a further two improved for a significant time. The remaining dog died as a result of rectal perforation. Transanal endoscopic treatment of extensive and/or inaccessible benign canine rectal tumours offers an alternative to more radical techniques such as pull-through surgery.     

Modelling the spatio-temporal deployment of resistant varieties to reduce the incidence of rice tungro disease in a dynamic cropping system

A dynamic cropping system was represented by a square lattice of fields in which crops were successively harvested and replanted. A spectrum of crop ages existed at any one time and the virus disease persisted by spread of inoculum between crops. Such a situation is typical of many areas of tropical irrigated rice cultivation in which rice tungro virus disease (RTVD) occurs. Using a mathematical model of the epidemiology of RTVD in the cropping system, the deployment of fields of a genotype expressing some resistance to the disease was investigated. Previous studies on the effect of genotype mixtures on disease progress within a single crop have shown that both the rate of disease increase and the rate of focus expansion were proportional to the logarithm of the fraction of susceptible plants in the mixture. Here, looking at long-term disease incidence in a dynamic cropping system, it was found that this same 'logarithmic rule' applied, provided that resistant crop deployment was spatially random. A relatively large proportion of fields had to be planted with resistant varieties in order to have sufficient area-wide impact on inoculum to reduce disease incidence in fields of susceptible varieties. In many rice cropping systems there are two growing seasons per year and the modelling indicated that the best strategy was to concentrate deployment of resistant varieties in the season of greatest disease spread. Attempts to minimize inoculum carry-over to the 'high spread' season by concentrating resistant varieties in the previous season had little effect over a range of simulated conditions. In considering recommendations for the management of RTVD, a conflict existed between the reduction of disease incidence strategically and in the individual fields of a newly deployed variety. To maximize area-wide strategic impact, small genotype units and random patterns were best, but to protect individual fields, large units and concentrated deployment were best.     

Spatial patterning of habitat for Oncorhynchus mykiss in a system of intermittent and perennial streams

Abstract –  The salmonid Oncorhynchus mykiss tends to inhabit forested or snow-fed streams having cold reliable flows, but in the California chaparral they inhabit rain-fed stream networks with extensive areas of intermittent flow. We hypothesised that hydrological mechanisms in such watersheds tend to spatially segregate spawning and over-summering habitats, and tested the hypothesis using observations from a series of tributaries in a pristine watershed. Consistent with the hypothesis, reaches with suitably sized spawning gravels tended to occur in intermittent tributaries, and also the perennial mainstem (which was too warm for over-summering). In early summer, juvenile O. mykiss (<10 cm) occurred at similar densities in the intermittent and perennial tributaries, but larger fish had greater densities in perennial tributaries. Large wood debris would be expected to mitigate the spatial segregation of habitats somewhat, but was scarce, though stream-side outcrops appeared to partially compensate by forcing gravel bars in high-gradient channels.     

Comparison of External and Internal Pelvic Measurements of Belgian Blue Cattle from Sample Herds in Belgium and the United Kingdom

Measurements describing pelvic conformation of pedigree Belgian Blue cows were obtained from a sample of nine herds in Flanders, Belgium, comprising 111 adult breeding cows, and from 11 herds in the United Kingdom comprising 108 similar cows. All herds in the Belgian sample (111 cows) managed parturition by elective caesarian section as did seven herds (56 cows) in the UK sample; the remainder of UK herds (52 cows) allowed cows the opportunity to calve naturally per vagina before resorting to caesarian section. The data described the external and internal measurements, and pelvic area characteristic of this breed, irrespective of the different selection pressures applied over a number of years to this breed through variation in farm management and market forces present in either country. From these data, generalized linear models were constructed to predict pelvic area; they correctly identified cows with either small or large pelvic areas. There were no significant differences in pelvic conformation between cattle bred either in Belgium or the UK, although those cows bred in herds where natural calving was allowed to take place had significantly larger internal pelvic height (p < 0.05) and area (p < 0.05) than other Belgian Blue cows. The correlation coefficients between internal pelvic height and width and external pelvic measurements were significant (p < 0.001). These results might facilitate the selection of breeding cows with larger pelvic area so that a higher proportion of cows can calve naturally than currently occurs. However, selection for other traits such as relatively low birth weight combined with higher weaning weight should be carried out at the same time.