Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

覆盖紫花苜蓿对采煤沉陷区植物生长和土壤化学生物性状的影响

以神东矿区采煤沉陷地种植的复垦植物(野樱桃、文冠果、欧李和山杏)为试材,采用野外原位监测方法,研究覆盖紫花苜蓿和未覆盖处理(对照,CK)对植物生长及土壤化学和生物性状的影响。结果表明:覆盖紫花苜蓿处理的野樱桃、文冠果、欧李和山杏苗木地上部干质量比未覆盖处理显著增加31.7%~54.6%,根干质量增加25.6%~41.0%;同样地,植物成活率和叶色值分别增加到85%和32.0以上,显著高于对照;覆盖处理的土壤碱解氮、有机质、速效磷、速效钾含量增幅较对照分别达到12.5%~17.9%、14.0%~17.8%、14.0%~23.2%、13.6%~28.4%,差异显著;土壤酸性磷酸酶、蔗糖酶、脲酶和硝酸还原酶活性分别比对照显著提高36.4%~41.6%、21.8%~51.2%、33.6%~44.7%、20.5%~39.9%。因此,覆盖紫花苜蓿有利于改善神东采煤沉陷区复垦植物生长、提高土壤化学和生物学性状水平,为矿区生态恢复提供依据。     

Variation in soil bulk density and hydraulic conductivity within a quasi-circular vegetation patch and bare soil area

Journal of Soils and Sediments - Soil bulk density and hydraulic conductivity are two of many key factors for vegetation establishment and the other way around. Variations in them may cause patchy...     

耕牛的饲养管理

我县农村在农业机械化程度不高的现状下,耕牛仍是农耕的主要动力之一,被视为"半个家产",因此耕牛的饲养管理显得极为重要.     

基于可靠性分析的大跨度跨越管桥寿命预测

根据管桥结构自身的受力特点,采用复合蒙特卡罗抽样法,结合有限元及二次开发工具APDL,对跨越管道的灵敏度和可靠性指标参数进行了分析和计算。以腐蚀速率分析模型为基础,分析了随机参数共同作用下结构的年失效概率。以某现役管桥为例,对其可靠性进行了全面分析。计算结果表明,与结构可靠性指标关系较密切的参数是主索截面积、管道外径和介质油密度。采用不同风险地段允许的失效概率对管桥的使用寿命进行了预测,低风险地段管桥的安全寿命可达39年,高风险地段管桥的安全寿命为26年。     

甘蓝型油菜雄性不育基因BnaX.MS1.a的克隆及其amiRNA载体的构建

根据拟南芥MS1基因已知保守序列设计特异性引物,分离克隆甘蓝型油菜中与拟南芥MS1基因同源的基因片段。应用PCR-Walking技术获得甘蓝型油菜核雄性不育基因BnaX.MS1.a,其全长3 424 bp。BnaX.MS1.a基因与拟南芥MS1基因全长序列同源性为60.3%,编码序列同源性为89.5%。根据基因序列比对结果推测开放阅读框长2 004 bp,编码667个氨基酸,分子量为765 kD,等电点为8.01。BnaX.MS1.a基因编码的氨基酸序列与已知拟南芥MS1基因编码的氨基酸序列同源性达93%。构建BnaX.MS1.a基因的amiRNA载体转化甘蓝型油菜,旨在研发核不育基因工程油菜。     

高校心理健康教育模式的建构

分析了我国高校心理健康教育的主要三种模式,强调高校心理健康教育要达到最佳效果,必须对三种主要模式进行整合,建构新的模式,即以心理健康教育课程教学为主,以班级与同年级、同专业参与相结合的心理辅导或咨询方式为依托,以心理治疗整合为辅助,以现代信息技术为载体,全面健全学生心智,培养和发展学生心理素质.     

Effect of simulated transport stress on the rat small intestine: A morphological and gene expression study

The present study investigated the effects of simulated transport stress on morphology and gene expression in the small intestine of laboratory rats. Sprague Dawley rats were subjected to 35 °C and 0.1×g on a constant temperature shaker for physiological, biochemical, morphological and microarray analysis before and after treatment. The treatment induced obvious stress responses with significant decreases in body weight (P < 0.01), increases in rectal temperature, serum corticosterone (CORT), serum glucose (GLU), creatine kinase (CK) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels (P < 0.01), as well as expression of Hsp27/70/90 mRNA (P < 0.05; P < 0.01). The rat jejunum was severely damaged and apoptotic after mimicking transport stress, which may mainly be related to cell death, oxidation reduction and hormone imbalance determined by microarray analysis. The bioinformatics analysis from the present study would provide insight into the potential mechanisms underlying transport stress-induced injury in the rat small intestine.     

对一起定点屠宰点宰杀病死猪案的查处及启示

1案由 2001年5月4日下午18时,我县金水兽医站检疫人员在槐树关食品站金水定点屠宰点执行检疫任务时,发现该场两头生猪患败血型猪丹毒而死亡,现场处理要求该点作销毁深埋处理,场地、圈舍进行无害化消毒.