The United States energy dilemma: How can we solve it?

Water, Air, & Soil Pollution - The basis for the present energy dilemma is described. The current solution to the inadequate petroleum and natural gas supplies and possible long-term solutions...     

Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries

Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect uncertainty about model structure, an issue of increasing importance as ecosystem models are devised to support the move to an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). This paper sets out pragmatic approaches with which to account for uncertainties in model structure and we review current ways of dealing with this issue in fisheries and other disciplines. All involve considering a set of alternative models representing different structural assumptions, but differ in how those models are used. The models can be asked to identify bounds on possible outcomes, find management actions that will perform adequately irrespective of the true model, find management actions that best achieve one or more objectives given weights assigned to each model, or formalize hypotheses for evaluation through experimentation. Data availability is likely to limit the use of approaches that involve weighting alternative models in an ecosystem setting, and the cost of experimentation is likely to limit its use. Practical implementation of an EAF should therefore be based on management approaches that acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in model predictions and are robust to it. Model results must be presented in ways that represent the risks and trade‐offs associated with alternative actions and the degree of uncertainty in predictions. This presentation should not disguise the fact that, in many cases, estimates of model uncertainty may be based on subjective criteria. The problem of model uncertainty is far from unique to fisheries, and a dialogue among fisheries modellers and modellers from other scientific communities will therefore be helpful.     

白足蚜小蜂对桃蚜的取食和寄生功能反应及搜寻效应

为评估白足蚜小蜂Aphelinus albipodus对桃蚜Myzus persicae的防控效果,在室内测定了白足蚜小蜂对不同发育阶段桃蚜的功能反应和搜寻效应,并对种内干扰和分摊竞争强度进行了比较。结果表明:白足蚜小蜂对不同发育阶段桃蚜的取食量和寄生量均随着蚜虫密度增加而增加,取食量和寄生功能反应均符合HollingⅡ模型。白足蚜小蜂对桃蚜的理论最大取食量2.809头,瞬时攻击率0.218,处理时间0.023 d;白足蚜小蜂对3～4日龄桃蚜寄生量最大,为47.62头,寄生瞬时攻击率0.723,处理时间0.021 d。搜寻效应均随蚜虫密度的增加而下降,且与蚜虫密度呈负相关。白足蚜小蜂个体之间存在种内干扰作用,随着自身密度增加,单头寄生率相对下降,分摊竞争强度增大,干扰效应符合Hassell-varley模型。由功能反应、种内干扰等指标可见白足蚜小蜂对桃蚜具有较好的防控作用。     

Use of real-time PCR to examine the relationship between disease severity in pea and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Aphanomyces euteiches</Emphasis> DNA content in roots

Aphanomyces euteiches causes severe root rot of peas. Resistance is limited in commercial pea cultivars. Real-time fluorescent PCR assay specific for A. euteiches was used to study the relationship between disease severity and pathogen DNA content in infected peas. Five pea genotypes ranging in levels of resistance were inoculated with five isolates of A. euteiches. Plants were visually rated for disease development and the amount of pathogen DNA in roots was determined using the PCR assay. The susceptible genotypes Genie, DSP and Bolero tended to have significantly more disease and more pathogen DNA than the resistant genotypes 90-2079 and PI 180693. PI 180693 consistently had less disease, while 90-2079 had the lowest amount of pathogen DNA. The Spearman correlation between pathogen DNA quantity and disease development was positive and significant (P < 0.05) for three isolates, but was not significant for two other isolates. This suggests that the real-time PCR assay may have limited application as a selection tool for resistance in pea to A. euteiches. Its utility as a selection tool would be dependent on the correlation between disease development and pathogen DNA content for a given pathogen isolate. The accuracy and specificity of the real-time PCR assay suggests considerable application for the assay in the study of mechanisms of disease resistance and the study of microbial population dynamics in plants.     

羊免疫布鲁菌病疫苗(S2株)免疫抗体长期监测结果的试验

为探究羊经布鲁菌病疫苗(S2株)免疫后的血清抗体长期动态消长规律,本试验于2012年9月-2015年9月选取阿拉善盟阿拉善左旗96只山羊、100只绵羊作为试验动物,经布鲁菌疫苗(S2株)100亿CFU、200亿CFU不同免疫剂量灌服,分别于免疫前和免疫后不同时间段采血分离血清,应用虎红平板凝集试验和试管凝集试验进行抗体监测。结果表明,绵羊组在一免后20d时,血清抗体阳性率达到最高峰,之后呈下降趋势,150d抗体阳性率降至0%,免疫后180d^360d,绵羊组抗体阳性率一直处于较低水平(0%~4%),二免和三免后不同时间段免疫抗体消长规律与首次免疫基本一致;山羊组抗体阳性率在免疫后20 d时,血清抗体阳性率达到最高峰,之后呈下降趋势,免疫后90 d^360 d,免疫抗体时高时低,起伏较大,无明显规律,二免和三免后不同时间段免疫抗体消长规律与首次免疫基本一致,结果同时表明,100亿CFU和200亿CFU两个免疫剂量组的抗体阳性率无明显差异。