The 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands--a survival analysis

The aim of this analysis was to characterise the temporal pattern of infection during the 1997/98 classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic in The Netherlands and hence identify and quantify risk factors for infection in different enterprise types and areas. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to describe the epidemic. Substantial differences in temporal survival patterns (herd breakdown rate) were found between areas where different control policies operated. Factors with a significant influence on the infection hazard of individual herds included: sow numbers as a percentage of total sows and fatteners (HR = 3.38 for mixed herds (0.1–60% sows) vs. fattening herds (0% sows) and HR = 2.74 for breeding herds (60–100% sows) vs. fattening herds), the number of ‘transport contacts per month’ (>0.3 vs. <0.3; HR = 4.11), pig density (pigs/km²) in the area (HR_{1000 pigs} 1.48) and herd size (HR_{100 pigs} = 1.01).

Pre-emptive slaughter in an area appeared to be associated with lower subsequent disease levels. Higher frequency of transport contacts for welfare slaughter during the epidemic, however, well regulated and controlled, was associated with a substantially higher risk of becoming infected. The positive association of a higher pig density with CSF indicates the potential importance of local spread as a factor in disease transmission and emphasizes that dilution of the pig population can contribute to reduction in CSF occurrence. This analysis suggests however, that if pre-emptive slaughter can promptly be applied effectively in an area after initial diagnosis, pig density is then not a significant factor. Mixed and breeding herds had a higher probability of becoming infected than fattening herds, possibly due to different types and frequencies of inter-herd contacts. These contacts continue to some extent during the epidemic, despite the standstill of animal movements.     

Gait analysis in a cat with scapular luxation and contralateral forelimb amputation

This report describes the use of a pressure-sensitive walkway to evaluate an uncommon case of a cat with dorsal luxation of the left scapula and an amputated right forelimb. The findings suggest that limb amputation induced load redistribution mostly to the contralateral forelimb despite the scapular luxation.     

An economic model to evaluate the mitigation programme for bovine viral diarrhoea in Switzerland

Economic analyses are indispensable as sources of information to help policy makers make decisions about mitigation resource use. The aim of this study was to conduct an economic evaluation of the Swiss national mitigation programme for bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), which was implemented in 2008 and concludes in 2017. The eradication phase of the mitigation programme comprised testing and slaughtering of all persistently infected (PI) animals found. First, the whole population was antigen tested and all PI cattle removed. Since October 2008, all newborn calves have been subject to antigen testing to identify and slaughter PI calves. All mothers of PI calves were retested and slaughtered if the test was positive. Antigen testing in calves and elimination of virus-carriers was envisaged to be conducted until the end of 2011. Subsequently, a surveillance programme will document disease freedom or detect disease if it recurs. Four alternative surveillance strategies based on antibody testing in blood from newborn calves and/or milk from primiparous cows were proposed by Federal Veterinary Office servants in charge of the BVDV mitigation programme. A simple economic spreadsheet model was developed to estimate and compare the costs and benefits of the BVDV mitigation programme. In an independent project, the impact of the mitigation programme on the disease dynamics in the population was simulated using a stochastic compartment model. Mitigation costs accrued from materials, labour, and processes such as handling and testing samples, and recording results. Benefits were disease costs avoided by having the mitigation programme in place compared to a baseline of endemic disease equilibrium. Cumulative eradication costs and benefits were estimated to determine the break-even point for the eradication component of the programme. The margin over eradication cost therefore equalled the maximum expenditure potentially available for surveillance without the net benefit from the mitigation programme overall becoming zero. Costs of the four surveillance strategies and the net benefit of the mitigation programme were estimated. Simulations were run for the years 2008-2017 with 20,000 iterations in @Risk for Excel. The mean baseline disease costs were estimated to be 16.04m CHF (1 Swiss Franc, CHF=0.73 € at the time of analysis) (90% central range, CR: 14.71-17.39m CHF) in 2008 and 14.89m CHF (90% CR: 13.72-16.08m CHF) in 2009. The break-even point was estimated to be reached in 2012 and the margin over eradication cost 63.15m CHF (90% CR: 53.72-72.82m CHF). The discounted cost for each surveillance strategy was found to be smaller than the margin, so the mitigation programme overall is expected to have a positive net economic benefit irrespective of the strategy adopted. For economic efficiency, the least cost surveillance alternative must be selected.     

Incidence of reinfections with Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae and Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae in pig farms located in respiratory-disease-free regions of Switzerland--identification and quantification of risk factors

The objective of the study was to identify risk factors for reintroduction of Actinobacillus pleuopneumoniae and Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae (enzootic pneumonia) onto pig farms in areas in Switzerland that were involved in an eradication programme from 1996 to 1999 and to assess the role of dealers in relation to these reinfections. The study was based on the comparison of pig farms that were reinfected in the year 2000 (cases) and pig farms that remained uninfected in the same area (controls). Additionally, data were collected from Swiss pig dealers and transport companies. Out of a total of 3983 farms, 107 farms were reinfected in the year 2000. The incidences were 0.1% for Actinobacillus pleuopneumoniae and 2.6% for Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae (enzootic pneumonia). Compared to reinfection rates prior to the eradication programme, this is a considerable reduction. Statistically significant risk factors for the reinfection were 'finishing farm', 'large mixed breeding-finishing farm', 'reinfected neighbour' and 'parking site for pig transport vehicles close to the farm'. Pig farmers that purchased pigs from only one supplier per batch had a lower risk of reintroducing infection (protective factor). As long as infected and uninfected regions co-exist in Switzerland, direct and indirect contact between farms, pig herds and slaughter sites via transport vehicles are a major pathway of disease spread. Risk management measures linked to these contacts are therefore of key importance. The survey of dealers indicated various areas for improvement such as strategic planning of pick-up routes or cleaning and disinfecting of trucks.