A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease: I. Model description

A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resource constraints. The disease dynamics and the impacts of control strategies on these dynamics were characterized in a set of difference equations; effects of movement restrictions on the disease dynamics were also considered. The model was applied to a three-county region in the Central Valley of California; the epidemic relationships were parameterized and validated using the information obtained from an FMD simulation model developed for the same region. The optimization model enables more efficient searches for desirable control strategies by considering all strategies simultaneously, providing the simulation model with optimization results to direct it in generating detailed predictions of potential FMD outbreaks.     

An analysis of an early-warning system to reduce abortions in dairy cattle in Denmark incorporating both financial and epidemiologic aspects

Emergency preparedness relies on the ability to detect patterns in rare incidents in an early stage of an outbreak in order to implement relevant actions. Early warning of an abortion storm as a result of infection with a notifiable disease, e.g. brucellosis, bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) or infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), is a significant surveillance tool. This study used data from 507 large Danish dairy herds. A modified two-stage method for detecting an unusual increase in the abortion incidence was applied to the data. An alarm was considered true if an abortion were detected in the month following the alarm month, otherwise false. The total number of abortions that could potentially be avoided if effective action were taken ranged from 769 (22.9%) to 10 (0.3%), as the number of abortions required to set the alarm increased from 1 to 6. The vast majority of abortions could, however, not be predicted, much less prevented, given this early-warning system. The false to true alarm ratio was reduced when the number of abortions that set the alarm increased. The financial scenarios evaluated demonstrated that the value of an abortion, the cost of responding to an alarm and the efficiency of the actions are important for decision making when reporting an alarm. The presented model can readily be extended to other disease problems and multiple-time periods.     

Energy and resource consumption of land-based Atlantic salmon smolt hatcheries in the Pacific Northwest (USA)

This paper evaluates the resource and energy requirements of six different types of land-based, hatchery production systems located in the U.S. Pacific Northwest: flow-through with a gravity water supply, flow-through with a pumped water supply, flow-through with pure oxygen, partial reuse system, partial reuse with heating, and a reuse system for the production of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts. Key parameters used in the evaluation include direct energy, indirect energy, transportation energy, greenhouse gas emissions, and pollutant discharges.Power (electricity and natural gas) and feed energy accounted for the majority of the required energy for all the rearing option evaluated. The sum of the fixed capital and chemicals components accounted for less than 2–12% of the total energy budget for any rearing option. The energy efficiency (energy output/energy input) of the six options ranges from 0.97% for flow-through with pumped supply to 3.49% for the flow-through with gravity supply. The rearing options with the three highest energy efficiencies were flow-through with gravity supply (3.49%), partial reuse (2.75%), and reuse (2.64%).On a kg of smolt produced basis, the six rearing options showed a wide range in performance. The reuse system had the lowest water (2 m³ kg^− 1) and land (0.13 m² kg^− 1) requirements and the third lowest total energy requirement (288 MJ kg^− 1). The partial reuse system had the second lowest total power requirement (276 MJ kg^− 1), a low land requirement (0.21 m² kg^− 1), and moderate water requirements (33 m³ kg^− 1). The partial reuse with temperature control had the second highest total power requirement (657 MJ kg^− 1) and land and water requirements similar to the partial reuse system without temperature control. The flow-through system with pumped water supply had the highest water (289 m³ kg^− 1), land (2.19 m² kg^− 1), and energy requirements (786 MJ kg^− 1) of any of the rearing options. By comparison, the flow-through system with gravity water supply had the lowest energy requirement (218 MJ kg^− 1), a moderate land requirement (0.78 m² kg^− 1), and a high water requirement (214 m³ kg^− 1). The ranking of the six rearing options based capital and operating costs are likely to be quite different from those based on energy, water, and greenhouse gas emissions.     

Regional seroprevalence of bluetongue virus in cattle in Illinois and western Indiana

OBJECTIVE: To estimate seroprevalence of bluetongue virus (BTV) and the geographic distribution of seropositive cattle herds in Illinois and western Indiana. SAMPLE POPULATION: 10,585 serum samples obtained from cattle in 60 herds during 3 transmission seasons (2000 through 2002). PROCEDURES: In a longitudinal study, serum samples were tested for BTV antibodies by use of a competitive ELISA. Four geographic zones were created by use of mean minimum January temperature. A multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression model with a random effect for herd was used to estimate seropositive risk for zone, age of cattle, herd type, and transmission season. RESULTS: Overall, BTV antibodies were detected in 156 (1.5%) samples. Estimated seroprevalence in 2000, 2001, and 2002 was 1.49%, 0.97%, and 2.18%, respectively. Risk of being seropositive for BTV was associated with geographic zone and age. Seroprevalence increased progressively from northern to southern zones, with no evidence of BTV infection in the northernmost zone. In the southernmost zone, annual seroprevalence ranged from 8.65% to 11.00%. Adult cattle were 2.35 times as likely as juvenile cattle to be seropositive. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Overall seroprevalence was lower than has been reported for Illinois cattle. Bluetongue virus antibodies were distributed heterogeneously in this region. Only in the southernmost zone was seroprevalence consistently > 2%. Regionalization of BTV risk based on state borders does not account for such variability. Serologic data could be combined with landscape, climate, and vector data to develop predictive models of BTV risk within transitional regions of the United States.     

Mycobacterial disease in a population of 339 cats in Great Britain: II. Histopathology of 225 cases, and treatment and outcome of 184 cases

This study investigated 339 cases of feline mycobacterial infection, with histopathology findings from 225 cases, and treatment and outcome information from 184 cases. Tissue samples from cats with cutaneous lesions or suspicious masses at exploratory laparotomy were submitted to the Veterinary Laboratories Agency for mycobacterial culture over a 4-year period to December 2008. The study reviewed the files for information about histopathology, treatment and outcome, and blindly reviewed histopathological changes (including staining for acid-fast bacteria [AFB]) in a sub-set of 45 cases. When a cat is suspected of having a mycobacterial infection, accurate identification of the species involved helps to determine possible treatment options and prognosis. The study confirmed that histopathology and the presence of AFB are useful tools in the recognition of mycobacterial infection. Unfortunately, they did little to help determine the species of mycobacteria involved. The study identified a group of cats that were negative for AFB at the primary laboratory, but from which mycobacteria could be cultured; commonly Mycobacterium bovis or Mycobacterium microti. The study also identified a group of cats which where culture negative, despite typical signs of mycobacterial infection and positive AFB staining. Many cases responded favourably to treatment (56% of the cases where information was available), and many cats gained complete remission (42%). However, relapses were common (64%) and often followed by pulmonary and/or systemic spread that may have resulted from treatment with short courses of single drugs. This study shows that the diagnosis and treatment of feline mycobacteriosis is complex and challenging.     

Evaluation of cardiac lesions and risk factors associated with myocarditis and dilated cardiomyopathy in southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis)

OBJECTIVE: To describe cardiac lesions and identify risk factors associated with myocarditis and dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) in beach-cast southern sea otters. ANIMALS: Free-ranging southern sea otters. PROCEDURE: Sea otters were necropsied at the Marine Wildlife Veterinary Care and Research Center from 1998 through 2001. Microscopic and gross necropsy findings were used to classify sea otters as myocarditis or DCM case otters or control otters. Univariate, multivariate, and spatial analytical techniques were used to evaluate associations among myocarditis; DCM; common sea otter pathogens; and potential infectious, toxic, and nutritional causes. RESULTS: Clusters of sea otters with myocarditis and DCM were identified in the southern aspect of the sea otter range from May to November 2000. Risk factors for myocarditis included age, good body condition, and exposure to domoic acid and Sarcocystis neurona. Myocarditis associated with domoic acid occurred predominantly in the southern part of the range, whereas myocarditis associated with S. neurona occurred in the northern part of the range. Age and suspected previous exposure to domoic acid were identified as major risk factors for DCM. A sample of otters with DCM had significantly lower concentrations of myocardial L-carnitine than control and myocarditis case otters. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Cardiac disease is an important cause of death in southern sea otters. Domoic acid toxicosis and infection with S. neurona are likely to be 2 important causes of myocarditis in sea otters. Domoic acid-induced myocarditis appears to progress to DCM, and depletion of myocardial L-carnitine may play a key role in this pathogenesis.