Emulation Engines: Choice and Quantification of Uncertainty for Complex Hydrological Models

Complex, mechanistic hydrological models can be computationally expensive, have large numbers of input parameters, and generate multivariate output. Model emulators can be constructed to approximate these complex models with substantial computational savings, making activities such as sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis feasible. Success in the use of an emulator relies on it making accurate and precise predictions of the model output. However, it is often unclear what type of emulation approach will be suitable. We present a comparison of reduced-rank, multivariate emulators built upon different ‘emulation engines’ and apply them to the Australian Water Resource Assessment System model. We examine first-order and second-order approaches which focus on specifying the mean and covariance, respectively. We also introduce a nonparametric approach for quantifying the uncertainty associated with the emulated prediction where this has bounded support. Our results demonstrate that emulation engines based on second-order approaches, such as Gaussian processes, can be computationally burdensome and may be comparable in performance to computationally efficient, first-order methods such as random forests.Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.     

Extremwetterlagen und Auswirkungen auf Schaderreger – extreme Wissenslücken

Climate Change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and timing of weather and climate extremes and can result in unprecedented extremes. Managed systems like agriculture are not immune to them. Studying the rapidly growing body of climate change literature it has been noted that there are only a few papers concerning the influences of extreme weather on agriculture. Projections of future impacts of extreme weather cannot always be made with a high level of confidence. Pests (weeds, insect pests and plant pathogens) represent a major constraint to crop production. The present paper analyses scientific literature published since 1945 concerning the knowledge about the influences of extreme weather on incidence of pests in wheat, barley, maize, beet, potato, rape, forage crops and grassland. Only 63 papers were found. Insect pests and plant pathogenic fungi of maize and wheat are most investigated. The most papers describe the influences of drought, dryness heat and heavy down pours. There are enormously knowledge gaps. On the basis of this it is not possible to assess the influences of weather extremes in a changing climate on pests and yield loss current. More research in this field is needed urgently.     

Short- and long-term implications of clearcut and two-age silviculture for conservation of breeding forest birds in the central Appalachians, USA

Two-age (deferment or leave tree) harvesting is used increasingly in even-aged forest management, but long-term responses of breeding avifauna to retention of residual canopy trees have not been investigated. Breeding bird surveys completed in 1994-1996 in two-age and clearcut harvests in the central Appalachian Mountains of West Virginia, USA allowed us to document long-term changes in these stands. In 2005 and 2006, we conducted point counts in mature unharvested forest stands and in 19-26 year-old clearcut and two-age harvests from the original study and in younger clearcut and two-age stands (6-10 years old). We found differences in breeding bird metrics among these five treatments and temporal differences in the original stands. Although early-successional species are typically absent from group selection cuts, they were almost as common in young two-age stands as clearcuts, supporting two-age harvests as an alternative to clearcutting. Although older harvests had lower species richness and diversity, they were beginning to provide habitat for some species of late-successional forest songbirds that were absent or uncommon in young harvests. Overall, late-successional forest-interior species were more flexible in their use of different seral stages; several species used both age classes and harvest types in addition to mature forest, which may reflect the lack of edges in our heavily-forested landscape. Consequently, two-age management provides habitat for a diverse group of species as these stands mature and may be an ecologically sustainable alternative to clearcutting in landscapes where brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater) are uncommon.     

Residue chemistry and microbial community structure during decomposition of eucalypt, wheat and vetch residues

Previous studies have shown that residue chemistry and microbial community structure change during decomposition, however little is known about the relationship between C-chemistry and microbial community structure. To address this knowledge gap, we studied C-chemistry and microbial community structure during the decomposition of eucalypt, wheat and vetch residues with and without additional inorganic N. Bags containing ground residues of eucalypt, wheat, and vetch were buried in sand microcosms after inoculation with a diverse microbial community. Respiration was measured over an incubation period of 150 days. At different times during incubation, total C and N of the residues were analysed and residue carbon chemistry was determined by ¹³C-NMR (nuclear magnetic resonance) spectroscopy. Microbial communities were assessed by phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analyses.Results indicated that during decomposition, residue C-chemistry and microbial community composition changed over time and differed between residue types. Changes in microbial community structure were associated with changes in residue C-chemistry, mainly the relative content of aryl-C and O-alkyl-C. Addition of N increased cumulative respiration, altered C-chemistry during decomposition, particularly in high C/N residues (wheat and eucalypt), and changed microbial succession leading to an earlier establishment of a stable microbial community structure. N addition to eucalypt and wheat reduced the decomposition of aryl-C compounds.     

Canine cutaneous epitheliotropic T-cell lymphoma with vesiculobullous lesions resembling human bullous mycosis fungoides

The broad spectrum of clinical signs in canine cutaneous epitheliotropic T-cell lymphoma mimics many inflammatory skin diseases and is a diagnostic challenge. A 13-year-old-male castrated golden retriever crossbred dog presented with multifocal flaccid bullae evolving into deep erosions. A shearing force applied to the skin at the periphery of the erosions caused the epidermis to further slide off the dermis suggesting intraepidermal or subepidermal separation. Systemic signs consisted of profound weight loss and marked respiratory distress. Histologically, the superficial and deep dermis were infiltrated by large, CD3-positive neoplastic lymphocytes and mild epitheliotropism involved the deep epidermis, hair follicle walls and epitrichial sweat glands. There was partial loss of the stratum basale. Bullous lesions consisted of large dermoepidermal and intraepidermal clefts that contained loose accumulations of neutrophils mixed with fewer neoplastic cells in proteinaceous fluid. The lifted epidermis was often devitalized and bordered by hydropic degeneration and partial epidermal collapse. Similar neoplastic lymphocytes formed small masses in the lungs associated with broncho-invasion. Clonal rearrangement analysis of antigen receptor genes in samples from skin and lung lesions using primers specific for canine T-cell receptor gamma (TCRγ) produced a single-sized amplicon of identical sequence, indicating that both lesions resulted from the expansion of the same neoplastic T-cell population. Macroscopic vesiculobullous lesions with devitalization of the lesional epidermis should be included in the broad spectrum of clinical signs presented by canine cutaneous epitheliotropic T-cell lymphoma.     

Integrating the fish embryo toxicity test as triad element for sediment toxicity assessment based on the Water Framework Directive approach

Purpose  

The objective of this study was to complement analyses according to the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) with a sediment toxicity analysis as part of an integrated river assessment. To this end, Hessian water courses were analyzed using the sediment quality triad concept according to Chapman with chemical analyses, in situ effect evaluations, and ecotoxicological assessments. For the ecotoxicological assessment (fish embryo toxicity test with Danio rerio), a new evaluation scheme was developed, the fish teratogenicity index (FTI), that allows for a classification of sediments into ecological quality classes compliant to the WFD.     

Effects of Aporrectodea caliginosa (Savigny) on nitrogen mobilization and decomposition of elevated‐CO2 Charlock mustard litter

This study was conducted to improve our understanding of how earthworms and microorganisms interact in the decomposition of litter of low quality (high C : N ratio) grown under elevated atmospheric [CO₂]. A microcosm approach was used to investigate the influence of endogeic earthworm (Aporrectodea caliginosa Savigny) activity on the decomposition of senescent Charlock mustard (Sinapis arvensis L.) litter produced under ambient and elevated [CO₂]. Earthworms and microorganisms were exposed to litter which had changed in quality (C : N ratio) while growing under elevated [CO₂]. After 50 d of incubation in microcosms, C mineralization (CO₂ production) in the treatment with elevated‐[CO₂] litter was significantly lower in comparison to the ambient‐[CO₂] litter treatment. The input of Charlock mustard litter into the soil generally induced N immobilization and reduced N₂O‐emission rates from soil. Earthworm activity enhanced CO₂ production, but there was no relationship to litter quality. Although earthworm biomass was not affected by the lower quality of the elevated‐[CO₂] litter, soil microbial biomass (C_mic, N_mic) was significantly decreased. Earthworms reduced C_mic and fungal biomass, the latter only in treatments without litter. Our study clearly showed that A. caliginosa used the litter grown under different [CO₂] independent of its quality and that their effect on the litter‐decomposition process was also independent of litter quality. Soil microorganisms were shown to negatively react to small changes in Charlock mustard litter quality; therefore we expect that microbially mediated C and N cycling may change under future atmospheric [CO₂].     

Vertical distribution of soil properties under short‐rotation forestry in Northern Germany

Short‐rotation forestry (SRF) on arable soils has high potentials for biomass production and leads to long‐term no‐tillage management. In the present study, the vertical distributions of soil chemical and microbial properties after 15 y of SRF with willows and poplar (Salix and Populus spp.) in 3‐ and 6‐year rotations on an arable soil were measured and compared to a pertinent tilled arable site. Two transects at different positions in the relief (upper and lower slope; transect 1 and 2) were investigated. Short‐rotation forestry caused significant changes in the vertical distribution of all investigated soil properties (organic and microbial C, total and microbial N, soil enzyme activities), however, the dimension and location (horizons) of significant effects varied. The rotation periods affected the vertical distribution of the soil properties within the SRF significantly. In transect 1, SRF had higher organic‐C concentrations in the subsoil (Bv horizon), whereas in transect 2, the organic‐C concentrations were increased predominantly in the topsoil (Ah horizon). Sufficient plant supply of P and K in combination with decreased concentrations of these elements in the subsoil under SRF pointed to an effective nutrient mobilization and transfer from the deeper soil horizons even in the long term. In transect 1, the microbial‐C concentrations were higher in the B and C horizons and in transect 2 in the A horizons under SRF than under arable use. The activities of β‐glucosidases and acid phosphatases in the soil were predominantly lower under SRF than under arable use in the topsoil and subsoil. We conclude, that long‐term SRF on arable sites can contribute to increased C sequestration and changes in the vertical distribution of soil microbial biomass and soil enzyme activities in the topsoil and also in the subsoil.