Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model

Land use change is the result of interactions between processes operating at different scales. Simulation models at regional to global scales are often incapable of including locally determined processes of land use change. This paper introduces a modeling approach that integrates demand-driven changes in land area with locally determined conversion processes. The model is illustrated with an application for European land use. Interactions between changing demands for agricultural land and vegetation processes leading to the re-growth of (semi-) natural vegetation on abandoned farmland are explicitly addressed. Succession of natural vegetation is simulated based on the spatial variation in biophysical and management related conditions, while the dynamics of the agricultural area are determined by a global multi-sector model. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of European land use and landscapes. The model approach is similarly suitable for other regions and processes where large scale processes interact with local dynamics.     

Confronting collinearity: comparing methods for disentangling the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation

Estimating the relative importance of habitat loss and fragmentation is necessary to estimate the potential benefits of specific management actions and to ensure that limited conservation resources are used efficiently. However, estimating relative effects is complicated because the two processes are highly correlated. Previous studies have used a wide variety of statistical methods to separate their effects and we speculated that the published results may have been influenced by the methods used. We used simulations to determine whether, under identical conditions, the following 7 methods generate different estimates of relative importance for realistically correlated landscape predictors: residual regression, model or variable selection, averaged coefficients from all supported models, summed Akaike weights, classical variance partitioning, hierarchical variance partitioning, and a multiple regression model with no adjustments for collinearity. We found that different methods generated different rankings of the predictors and that some metrics were strongly biased. Residual regression and variance partitioning were highly biased by correlations among predictors and the bias depended on the direction of a predictor’s effect (positive vs. negative). Our results suggest that many efforts to deal with the correlation between amount and fragmentation may have done more harm than good. If confounding effects are controlled and adequate thought is given to the ecological mechanisms behind modeled predictors, then standardized partial regression coefficients are unbiased estimates of the relative importance of amount and fragmentation, even when predictors are highly correlated.     

Changes in fox squirrel anti-predator behaviors across the urban–rural gradient

Predator stimuli created by humans in the urban environment may alter animals’ anti-predator behaviors. I hypothesized that habituation would cause anti-predator behaviors to decrease in urban settings in response to humans. Additionally, I hypothesized that populations habituated to humans would show reduced responses to other predator stimuli. I observed three populations of squirrels (urban, suburban and rural) responses to human approaches, red-tailed hawk vocalizations (Buteo jamaicensis) and coyote (Canis latrans) vocalizations. Mahalanobis distances of anti-predator behaviors in response to human approaches were consistent with the urban–rural gradient. Flight initiation distances (X ² = 26.33, df = 2, P < 0.001) and amount of time dedicated to anti-predator behavior (X ² = 10.94, df = 2, P = 0.004) in response to human approaches were also consistent with the urban–rural gradient. Supporting the habituation hypothesis, naive juvenile squirrels increased flight initiation distances (X ² = 35.89, df = 1, P < 0.001) and time dedicated to anti-predator behaviors (X ² = 9.46, df = 1, P = 0.002) relative to adult squirrels in the same urban environment. Time dedicated to anti-predator behaviors differed among all three sites in response to both coyote (X ² = 9.83, df = 2, P = 0.007) and hawk (X ² = 6.50, df = 2, P = 0.035) vocalizations. Responses to both vocalizations on rural sites (coyote = 45%, hawk = 55%) greater than twice that found on the urban sites (coyote = 11%, hawk = 20%). This is possibly the first case of a transfer of habituation demonstrated under field conditions.     

Effects of multiple fires on tree invasion in montane grasslands

There is circumstantial evidence that grasslands on the Bunya Mountains were once maintained by Aboriginal burning, and with lack of fire under European management are being colonised by trees. To assess the efficacy of burning for maintaining grasslands, 119 fires were lit between 1996 and 2006. The total area of unburnt grasslands decreased by 27%, while grasslands burnt at least once decreased by 1%. The density of invading trees was recorded from fixed plots on 23 grasslands burnt between one and six times. Cassinia was virtually eliminated and the density of the Rainforest species guild slowly but continually declined. Acacia irrorata exhibited a humped response, with initial increases resulting from vegetative resprouting and gradual decline with persistent burning. Phyllodinous Acacia and Woodland trees were the least fire sensitive guilds, having stable or increased density with repeated burning. Multi-factor regression modelling detected no significant relationships between changes in woody plant density and the interval between fires, fire intensity, the initial density of large trees, an index of soil moisture, or the cumulative number of fires for any species guild. The survivorship of both Cassinia and Rainforest guilds was significantly lower with summer burning than winter burning, but a seasonal effect of burning was not evident for other guilds. The findings suggest that regardless of fire conditions, frequent burning will reduce the number of adult trees, maintain resprouts in an immature state, facilitate further fire and reduce the rate of grassland loss. Woodland species are especially resilient to fire, and burning to maintain grassy ecosystems will be most successful where the main colonisers are rainforest species and burning is conducted in summer. The findings suggest that the montane grasslands of the Bunya Mountains were maintained by anthropogenic burning and active fire management will prolong their existence.     

苹果绵蚜防治的关键时期及用药技术

苹果绵蚜属于国家一级检疫性害虫,对苹果生产具有毁灭性危害。近年来在我国部分地区有蔓延趋势。该虫属同翅目绵蚜科,又名血色蚜虫、赤蚜、棉花虫;主要危害苹果属、梨属、山楂属、李属、桑属、榆属等植物,其生活史为不完全型,主要以成虫和幼虫在苹果幼嫩组织和枝干吸食汁液,被害枝组织受刺激可形成肿瘤,影响养分输送,削弱树势,严重时导致全株枯死。     

Effects of water table management on soil salinity and alfalfa yield in a semi-arid climate

A lysimeter experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of water table management (WTM) on distribution of soil salinity and annual alfalfa (Medicago scutellata) yield. Subirrigations with three levels of water table namely, 0.5 (WT0.5), 0.7 (WT0.7), and 1.0 m (WT1.0) and a free drainage (FD) conventional irrigation treatment were selected for this study. All treatments were arranged in a complete randomized block design with three replicates. The results of this study indicated that the average soil electrical conductivity of the saturated extract (ECe) in the root zone gradually increased and exceeded the designated crop threshold value (4 dS/m) after the first forage harvest in subirrigated lysimeters. A higher salt accumulation was observed at the WT0.5 treatment. The average dry matter yield of annual alfalfa in WT0.5 and WT0.7 treatments was found to be 52 and 73% higher compared with the control treatment, respectively.     

Bahiagrass crop coefficients from eddy correlation measurements in central Florida

Bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum) is a warm-season grass used primarily in pastures and along highways and other low maintenance public areas in Florida. It is also used in landscapes to some extent because of its drought tolerance. Bahiagrass can survive under a range of moisture conditions from no irrigation to very wet conditions. Its well-watered consumptive use has not been reported previously. In this study, bahiagrass crop coefficients (K _c) for an irrigated pasture were determined for July 2003 through December 2006 in central Florida. The eddy correlation method was used to estimate crop evapotranspiration (ET_c) rates. The standardized reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) equation (ASCE-EWRI standardization of reference evapotranspiration task committee report, 2005) was applied to calculate ET_o values using on site weather data. Daily K _c values were estimated from the ratio of the measured ET_c and the calculated ET_o. The recommended K _c values for bahiagrass are 0.35 for January–February, 0.55 for March, 0.80 for April, 0.90 for May, 0.75 for June, 0.70 for July–August, 0.75 for September, 0.70 for October, 0.60 for November, and 0.45 for December in central Florida. The highest K _c value of 0.9 in May corresponded with maximum vapor pressure deficit conditions as well as cloud free conditions and the highest incoming solar radiation as compared to the rest of the year. During the summer (June to August), frequent precipitation events increased the cloud cover and reduced grass water use. The K _c annual trend was similar to estimated K _c values from another well-watered warm-season grass study in Florida.     

Evaluating eddy covariance cotton ET measurements in an advective environment with large weighing lysimeters

Eddy covariance (EC) systems are being used to assess the accuracy of remote sensing methods in mapping surface sensible and latent heat fluxes and evapotranspiration (ET) from local to regional scales, and in crop coefficient development. Therefore, the objective was to evaluate the accuracy of EC systems in measuring sensible heat (H) and latent heat (LE) fluxes. For this purpose, two EC systems were installed near large monolithic weighing lysimeters, on irrigated cotton fields in the Texas High Plains, during the months of June and July 2008. Sensible and latent heat fluxes were underestimated with an average error of about 30%. Most of the errors were from nocturnal measurements. Energy balance (EB) closure was 73.2–78.0% for daytime fluxes. Thus, daylight fluxes were adjusted for lack of EB closure using the Bowen ratio/preservation of energy principle, which improved the resulting EC heat flux agreement with lysimetric values. Further adjustments to EC-based ET included nighttime ET (composite) incorporation, and the use of ‘heat flux source area’ (footprint) functions to compensate ET when the footprint expanded beyond the crop field boundary. As a result, ET values remarkably matched lysimetric ET values, with a ‘mean bias error ± root mean square error’ of −0.03 ± 0.5 mm day⁻¹ (or −0.6 ± 10.2%).     

Estimation of actual evapotranspiration for a drip-irrigated Merlot vineyard using a three-source model

A study was performed in order to evaluate the three-source model (Clumped model) for direct estimation of actual evapotranspiration (ET_a) and latent heat flux (LE) over a drip-irrigated Merlot vineyard trained on a vertical shoot positioned system (VSP) under semi-arid conditions. The vineyard, with an average fractional cover of 30%, is located in the Talca Valley, Region del Maule, Chile. The performance of the Clumped model was evaluated using an eddy covariance system during the 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 growing seasons. Results indicate that the Clumped model was able to predict ET_a with a root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE), and model efficiency (EF) of 0.33, −0.15 mm day⁻¹ and 74%, respectively. Also, the Clumped model simulated the daytime variation of LE with a RMSE of 36 W m⁻², MBE of −8 W m⁻², and EF of 83%. Major disagreement (underestimated values) between observed and estimated values of ET_a was found for clear days after rainfall or foggy days, but underestimated values were less than 10% of the data analysis. The results obtained in this study indicate that the Clumped model could be used to directly estimate vine water requirements for a drip-irrigated vineyard trained on a VSP. However, application of the Clumped model requires a good characterization of the drip-irrigated vineyard architecture.     

半主动油气悬架系统模糊控

以两自由度悬架模型为研究对象,针对半主动油气悬架系统,提出了以悬架动挠度为控制目标的模糊控制策略,并对系统进行仿真和实车道路试验.结果表明,采用模糊控制的半主动油气悬架在衰减车辆振动、提高车辆行驶平顺性方面优于传统被动油气悬架.