Establishing a cost-effective national surveillance system for Bluetongue using scenario tree modelling

Vector-borne diseases pose a special challenge to veterinary authorities due to complex and time-consuming surveillance programs taking into account vector habitat. Using stochastic scenario tree modelling, each possible surveillance activity of a future surveillance system can be evaluated with regard to its sensitivity and the expected cost. The overall sensitivity of various potential surveillance systems, composed of different combinations of surveillance activities, is calculated and the proposed surveillance system is optimized with respect to the considered surveillance activities, the sensitivity and the cost. The objective of this project was to use stochastic scenario tree modelling in combination with a simple cost analysis in order to develop the national surveillance system for Bluetongue in Switzerland. This surveillance system was established due to the emerging outbreak of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in Northern Europe in 2006. Based on the modelling results, it was decided to implement an improved passive clinical surveillance in cattle and sheep through campaigns in order to increase disease awareness alongside a targeted bulk milk testing strategy in 200 dairy cattle herds located in high-risk areas. The estimated median probability of detection of cases (i.e. sensitivity) of the surveillance system in this combined approach was 96.4%. The evaluation of the prospective national surveillance system predicted that passive clinical surveillance in cattle would provide the highest probability to detect BTV-8 infected animals, followed by passive clinical surveillance in sheep and bulk milk testing of 200 dairy cattle farms in high-risk areas. This approach is also applicable in other countries and to other epidemic diseases.     

Seroprevalence of anaplasmosis among cattle in Switzerland in 1998 and 2003: no evidence of an emerging disease

Anaplasma marginale infection in Europe has been limited to the Mediterranean and eastern countries, to Austria and to very sporadic cases in Switzerland. There are no reports of its occurrence in the countries north of Switzerland. A severe outbreak of anaplasmosis in August 2002 in a cattle farm in the canton Grisons, Switzerland, north of the Alps, with more than 300 cattle that had to be culled, came unexpected and gave reason to hypothesize presence of an increased yet undetected prevalence of A. marginale in Switzerland. Randomly selected bovine serum samples collected in 1998 and 2003 were tested using a competitive inhibitory ELISA (cELISA) to test the hypothesis. Our validation of the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of this test, done in the outbreak herd, yielded 99.2 and 83.3%, respectively, probably underestimating the true specificity. The true seroprevalence of anaplasmosis in Swiss cattle determined by cELISA was likely to be zero with upper 95% confidence limits of 2.49% in the canton Grisons and 1.17% in the rest of Switzerland, respectively, in 1998. For 2003, these estimates were even lower. There was no significant difference in apparent prevalences between 1998 and 2003. In search of a possible reservoir, three chamoises out of 46 free ranging wild ruminants from the Swiss National Park, Grisons, tested positive in the cELISA. This reaction is in accordance with A. marginale or a cross reacting agent such as Anaplasma ovis. From our results we conclude that the hypothesis of an increased prevalence of anaplasmosis in cattle in Switzerland must be rejected.     

Import risk analysis in animal disease control

At the Swiss Federal Veterinary Office risk analyses are conducted according to international standards. A risk analysis contains the elements risk management, risk assessment and risk communication. A risk assessment is based on risk profile, hazard identification and a pathway model. All available information is gathered, documented and assessed and the risk estimated. The question. "What is the probability that unprocessed wild boar meat imported to Switzerland from the federal state Mecklenburg Western Pommerania is contaminated with classical swine fever virus?" was answered by a release assessment. The hazard identification recognized classical swine fever virus and attenuated live virus vaccine used for oral immunization as hazards. The probability of contamination was estimated to be small. The question: "What is the likelihood to introduce Aujeszky's disease to Switzerland and infect the indigenous pig population with the disease, by means of importing pork and meat products?" was answered by assessing the release, exposure and resulting consequences. The risk of an infection of the indigenous pig population was estimated to be very small, as 80% of the imported products derive from countries or zones free from Aujeszky's disease. Furthermore the majority of the imported products are processed. The strict implementation of the regulations governing feeding of food wastes to pigs reduces the probability of exposure. In all assessments the risk management decides on a strategy to deal with the risk, taking into consideration the results and recommendations derived from the risk assessment as well as other relevant factors.     

Risk factors for infection of sow herds with porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus

In 1992, the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) of European type (PRRSV-EU) was introduced in Denmark. By 1996, the virus had spread to approximately 25% of the Danish herds. In January 1996, a modified-live vaccine based on the American type of the virus (PRRSV-US) was used in replacement boars for Danish artificial insemination (AI) centres and from July 1996, the vaccine was used in PRRSV-EU infected herds for prevention of disease. Soon after vaccine introduction, PRRSV non-infected herds experienced outbreaks of disease due to infection with PRRSV-US. In this study, we investigated the risk factors (biosecurity level, animals, exposure from PRRSV-US-infected neighbour herds, semen, herd size, pig density and herd density) for infection with PRRSV-US in a cohort of 1071 sow herds; we used a nested case-control study. The retrospective observation period lasted from June 1996 (when they all were non-infected) to October 1997. Seventy-three non-vaccinated, closed sow herds became infected with the vaccine strain during this period. Each case herd was matched with two control herds from the cohort (controls had not been infected at the time of infection in the case herds). The data were analysed using a Cox-regression model. The hazard of infection increased significantly with exposure from PRRSV-US-infected neighbouring herds, purchase of animals from herds incubating PRRSV-US infection, increasing herd size and purchase of semen from boars at PRRSV-US-infected AI centres. The results are consistent with the modified-live vaccine strain spread to other herds by trade with animals and semen and by neighbour (area) transmission. We suggest that virus spread by aerosols was a frequent mode of transmission.     

Evaluation and optimization of surveillance systems for rare and emerging infectious diseases

Surveillance for rare and emerging infectious diseases poses a special challenge to veterinary services. Most emerging infectious diseases like bovine tuberculosis (bTB) are zoonoses, affecting both human and animal populations. Despite the low prevalence of such an emerging infectious disease at time of incursion, the surveillance system should be able to detect the presence of the disease as early as possible. Because passive surveillance is a relatively cost-effective and therefore commonly used process, it is the basic tool for infectious disease surveillance. Because of under-reporting in passive surveillance, cost-intensive active surveillance is often required to increase the sensitivity of the surveillance system. Using scenario tree modelling, the sensitivity of passive and active surveillance system components (SSC) can be quantified and an optimal, cost-effective surveillance system developed considering the contributions of each SSC. We illustrate this approach with the example of bTB surveillance in Switzerland where the surveillance system for bTB consists of meat inspection at the slaughterhouse (SLI), passive clinical surveillance on farm (CLIN) and human surveillance (HS). While the sensitivities for CLIN and HS were both negligible (<1%), SLI was assessed to be 55.6%. The scenario tree model showed that SLI is increasable up to 80.4% when the disease awareness of meat inspectors in Switzerland is enhanced. A hypothetical random survey (RS) was also compared with a targeted survey (TS) in high-risk strata of the cattle population, and the sensitivity of TS was 1.17-fold better than in RS but with 50% of the sample size.     

Regional simulation of maize production in tropical savanna fallow systems as affected by fallow availability

Upscaling of crop models from the field scale to the national or global scale is being used as a widespread method to make large-scale assessments of global change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production. In spite of the fact that soil fertility restoration and crop performance in many developing countries with low-input agriculture rely strongly on fallow duration and management, there are only few approaches which take into account the effect of fallowing on crop yields at the regional scale. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the sensitivity of maize yield simulations with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to fallow availability at the field and regional scale and (2) to present a novel approach to derive a model-based estimate of the average fallow availability within a typical catchment of the sub-humid savanna zone of West Africa. Therefore, the EPIC model has been validated at the field scale and then incorporated into a spatial database covering a typical catchment within the sub-humid savanna zone of West Africa with 121 sub-basins. Maize-fallow rotations have been simulated within 2556 quasi-homogenous spatial units and then aggregated to the 10 districts within the catchment assuming three different scenarios of fallow availability: 100% of the bush-grass savanna area is available and used in fallow-crop rotations (FU100), 50% of the bush-grass savanna area is available and used in fallow-crop rotations (FU50) and 25% of the bush-grass savanna area is available and used in fallow-crop rotations (FU25). A new aggregation procedure has been developed which is based on changes in the frequency of fallow-cropland classes within the sub-basins to render the simulation results in the spatial database sensitive to changes in fallow availability. Comparison of the average simulated grain yield with the mean yield over the catchment shows that the simulations overestimate maize yields by 62%, 44% and 15% for scenario FU100, FU50 and FU25, respectively. The best agreement between simulated and observed crop yields at the district scale was found when using the assumption that 25% of the savanna is available as fallow land under the present cropping patterns, which corresponds to a fallow-cropland ratio of 0.9. Comparison with farm surveys shows that the combination of remote sensing and dynamic crop modelling with yield observations provides realistic estimates of effective fallow use at the regional scale.     

Biochar application to sandy soil: effects of different biochars and N fertilization on crop yields in a 3-year field experiment

During the past years, most biochar studies were carried out on tropical soils whereas perennial field experiments on temperate soils are rare. This study presents a 3-year field experiment regarding the effects of differently produced biochars (pyrolyzed wood, pyrolyzed maize silage, hydrothermal carbonized maize silage) in interaction with digestate incorporation and mineral N fertilizer application on soil C and N, crop yields of winter wheat, winter rye and maize and the quality of winter wheat. Soil C and plant available potassium were found to be significantly positive affected by pyrolyzed wood biochar whereas the latter only in combination with N fertilization. Crop yields of winter wheat, winter rye and maize were not affected by biochar and showed no interaction effects with N fertilizer supply. Wheat grain quality and nutrition contents were significantly affected by biochar application, for example, highest amounts of phosphorus, potassium and magnesium were determined in treatments amended with pyrolyzed maize silage biochar. Biochar induced an improved availability of plant nutrients, which apparently were not yield limiting in our case. These results limit the potentials of biochar for sustainable intensification in agriculture by increasing crop yields for the temperate zones. However, detection of other environmental benefits requires further investigations.     

Carotenoids in diets for salmonids: I. Pigmentation of rainbow trout with the individual optical isomers of astaxanthin in comparison with canthaxanthin

Visual and chemical determinations revealed that the individual optical isomers of astaxanthin were more efficacious than canthaxanthin in pigmenting the flesh of rainbow trout (Salmo gairdneri, Richardson). The visual assessment of the astaxanthin pigmentation by means of a colour scale correlated well with the chemical determination. The same utilization was found for all three astaxanthin isomers, (3S, 3′S)-, (3R, 3′S)-, (3R, 3′R)-astaxanthin and a 1 : 2 : 1 mixture of the three isomers.No epimerization took place at the chiral centres of C-3 and C-3′ in astaxanthin. Astaxanthin and canthaxanthin were not interconverted. No metabolites were detected in the flesh.