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Erich  Erber  邓莹莹 《中国家禽》2005,27(18):1-6
预测未来应该以合理的假设为基础并把可变因素纳入其中,以达到一种感觉,就是哪里是我们的方向,驱动力是什么,它们可能决定了我们所要面对的风险。本文分析了关于未来的主要驱动力。这样就能更好理解我们这个行业所面对的风险,也能帮助决策者强化方案并做出更合理的决策。本文列出饲料业中十个风险因素,并一一做了介绍。  相似文献   
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Oxindole alkaloids in the paraherquamide/marcfortine family exhibit broad-spectrum anthelmintic activity that includes drug-resistant strains of nematodes. Paraherquamide (PHQ), 2-deoxoparaherquamide (2DPHQ), and close structural analogs of these compounds rapidly induce flaccid paralysis in parasitic nematodes in vitro, without affecting adenosine triphosphate (ATP) levels. The mechanism of action of this anthelmintic class was investigated using muscle tension and microelectrode recording techniques in isolated body wall segments of Ascaris suum. None of the compounds altered A. suum muscle tension or membrane potential. However, PHQ blocked (when applied before) or reversed (when applied after) depolarizing contractions induced by acetylcholine (ACh) and the nicotinic agonists levamisole and morantel. These effects were mimicked by the nicotinic ganglionic blocker mecamylamine, suggesting that the anthelmintic activity of PHQ and marcfortines is due to blockade of cholinergic neuromuscular transmission. The effects of these compounds were also examined on subtypes of human nicotinic ACh receptors expressed in mammalian cells with a Ca2+ flux assay. 2DPHQ blocked nicotinic stimulation of cells expressing alpha3 ganglionic (IC50 approximately 9 microm) and muscle-type (IC50 approximately 3 microm) nicotinic cholinergic receptors, but was inactive at 100 microm vs. the alpha7 CNS subtype. PHQ anthelmintics are nicotinic cholinergic antagonists in both nematodes and mammals, and this mechanism appears to underlie both their efficacy and toxicity.  相似文献   
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Patch-based landscape metrics can be biased by the boundaries and the extent of a reporting unit if the boundaries fragment patches. We call this the “boundary problem”. The effective mesh size m eff is a convenient method to quantify landscape fragmentation, that is based on the probability that two points chosen randomly in a region will be connected, e.g., not be separated by roads, railroads, or urban development. The cutting-out (CUT) procedure, used in the original computation of m eff, suffers from the boundary problem because the boundaries of the reporting units are considered to be additional barriers. Therefore, m eff will be underestimated, particularly if reporting units are embedded within the broader landscape. In this paper, we present a solution to overcome this limitation by a new method called “cross-boundary connections” (CBC) procedure. It attributes the connections between two points that are located in different reporting units to both reporting units. We systematically compare the CBC procedure to the CUT procedure and show that the boundary problem is intrinsic to the CUT procedure, while the CBC procedure is independent of the size and administrative boundaries of reporting units. In addition, we elucidate the superior performance of the new procedure in the case study of South Tyrol where m eff is being used for sustainability reporting on the level of municipalities. The new CBC procedure eliminates the bias due to the boundaries and the size of reporting units in measuring landscape fragmentation through m eff.  相似文献   
98.

Context

Human driven land-use and land-cover change (LULC) is considered to be among the greatest ecological pressures in mountain regions. Over the past century, across the European Alps, extensive LULC changes have been observed, affecting ecosystem goods and services (ESs).

Objectives

For eight case study sites across the Alpine arc we aimed to provide a spatiotemporal explicit assessment of the impacts of LULC dynamics on ES provision and interactions, including cultivated crops, plant material, climate regulation, soil erosion control and aesthetics.

Methods

We quantified ES provision in biophysical terms at four time periods (1850, 1955, 1985, 2005) using spatially explicit LULC based assessment models. ES interactions were identified by statistically analyzing the spatiotemporal pattern among ES capacities.

Results

Over the past century forested areas have increased mainly at the cost of grasslands, while on easily accessible sites and fertile valley floors agricultural intensification occurred. ES provision shifted between 1850 and 2005, from a predominance of production ESs in 1850 to a landscape characterized by regulating ESs in 2005. Spatiotemporal analyses of ES interactions revealed trade-offs between regulating and cultural ESs and within the provisioning ES bundle and allowed to derive three different ES trajectories: regions developing from single to multifunctional sites in terms of service provision, sites reducing their service capacities and sites with rather stationary patterns over broad time periods.

Conclusions

We demonstrated that ES capacities in complex agro-ecological mountain regions are highly sensitive to long-term landscape dynamics. We conclude that assessing ES capacities and interactions in an explicitly spatiotemporal manner can help to guide evidence-based environmental measures.
  相似文献   
99.
Natural occurring amorphous silica is ubiquitous on the earth in soils and sediments. Both, natural derived silica and synthetically produced amorphous silica are used against stored product pests and parasites in animal houses. New formulations, active even under higher relative humidity's can be possible used against horticultural arthropod pests. Since many horticultural pests hide on the undersides of leaves and silica is a physical contact insecticide, an appropriate application method is needed. This paper reviews electrostatic application of natural derived amorphous silica to Brassica chinensis leaves. Due to the inherent high volume resistivity of silica powder, induction charging was ineffective for electrostatic powder coating. Corona charging involves a reliable current source, but typically is inefficient in charging the powder particles and creates a high density of free ions between the gun and grounded substrate as well as within the coating layer. These factors resulted in poor coating quality and inefficient particle deposition. The best leave coating was archived using tribo charging. Here we have been able to apply coatings with different thickness. While a silica coating of 25–50?μm in petri dish experiments resulted in a reduced mortality of the granary weevil, Sitophilus granarius (L.), there was no difference between mortality with coatings of 50–100?μm and 100–125?μm. Silica applications on B. chinensis leaves resulted within two hours in a 45% reduction of the CO2-absorption. Absorption level stayed reduced over a period of seven days and was between 45 and 73% compared to the control. Even after removing silica dust using pressurized air CO2-absorption was between 19 and 28% reduced. This might be the case because silica particles where so small that they could possible clog the stomata opening resulting in a reduced transpiration and photosynthesis rate.  相似文献   
100.
High year-to-year variability in the incidence of Fusarium spp. and mycotoxin contamination was observed in a two-year survey investigating the impact of maize ear rot in 84 field samples from Germany. Fusarium verticillioides, F. graminearum, and F. proliferatum were the predominant species infecting maize kernels in 2006, whereas in 2007 the most frequently isolated species were F. graminearum, F. cerealis and F. subglutinans. Fourteen Fusarium-related mycotoxins were detected as contaminants of maize kernels analyzed by a multi-mycotoxin determination method. In 2006, a growth season characterized by high temperature and low rainfall during anthesis and early grain filling, 75% of the maize samples were contaminated with deoxynivalenol, 34% with fumonisins and 27% with zearalenone. In 2007, characterized by moderate temperatures and frequent rainfall during the entire growth season, none of the 40 maize samples had quantifiable levels of fumonisins while deoxynivalenol and zearalenone were detected in 90% and 93% of the fields, respectively. In addition, 3-acetyldeoxynivalenol, 15-acetyldeoxnivalenol, moniliformin, beauvericin, nivalenol and enniatin B were detected as common contaminants produced in both growing seasons. The results demonstrate a significant mycotoxin contamination associated with maize ear rots in Germany and indicate, with regard to anticipated climate change, that fumonisins-producing species already present in German maize production may become more important.  相似文献   
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